Preamble

The House met at half-past Two o'clock

PRAYERS

[Mr. SPEAKER in the Chair]

PRIVATE BUSINESS

BRITISH RAILWAYS BILL

(By Order)

Order for Second Reading read.

To be read a Second time upon Tuesday next at Seven o'clock.

BRITISH TRANSPORT DOCKS BILL

(By Order)

LONDON TRANSPORT BILL

(By Order)

Orders for Second Reading read.

To be read a Second time upon Thursday next.

Oral Answers to Questions — NATIONAL FINANCE

Exchange Rate

Mr. Tim Renton: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he is satisfied with communications between the Treasury and the Bank of England with regard to responding to exchange fluctuations.

Mr. Cronin: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his present policy with regard to the parity of sterling.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. Denis Healey): I confirm that I am well satisfied with communications between the Treasury and the Bank on these

matters. As to exchange rate policy, I refer the hon. Gentleman and my hon. Friend to the account given by my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister in the House on 11th March.

Mr. Renton: I appreciate the difficulty of managing a floating currency, but will the Chancellor assure the House that it is being done without unnecessary strain either on our own foreign exchange reserves or on the co-operative arrangements with other central banks?

Mr. Healey: I am grateful for the hon. Gentleman's question. Our policy is governed, and will continue to be governed, in line with the letter of application to the International Monetary Fund and our pledges under the Rambouillet accord, and the IMF guidelines agreed in Jamaica for countering erratic fluctuations in the exchange market. I can assure the hon. Gentleman that as we have acted in accordance with these rules the loss to our reserves has been very much less than that of certain other countries whose currencies have been under pressure in recent months.

Mr. Jay: Will my right hon. Friend convince his fellow Finance Ministers abroad that it will never be possible in the foreseeable future to maintain a system of fixed exchange rates between a number of trading economies? If he can convince them of that we shall avoid a great deal of trouble and nonsense.

Mr. Healey: As I think my right hon. Friend knows, I have made this point repeatedly at the International Monetary Fund and to my colleagues in the European Council of Finance Ministers. I have a feeling that after recent events there is much more agreement with the line that I have been taking than there was perhaps a month ago.

Mr. David Howell: After the last depreciation, a few weeks ago, the Chancellor denied firmly that the Bank of England had been selling sterling on a falling market, but in view of the evidence that the market would have supported the pound at $1·9385, the apparent pressures that continued after that level was reached and the general doubts about their origin, does not the Chancellor owe us a slightly fuller explanation of what went on?

Mr. Healey: I certainly do not. The hon. Gentleman should know that it has never been the practice of Chancellors of the Exchequer to comment on details of intervention policy. I can tell the House that there has never been any criticism in any international body, including the last meeting of the European Finance Ministers, of the way in which monetary authorities in Britain have handled pressure on the pound in recent months.

Mr. Powell: What reasons has the Chancellor for thinking that the fluctuations of the exchange rate are less severe with the intervention of the Bank of England than they would have been without it?

Mr. Healey: The evidence of experience over the past year.

Inflation

Mr. Skinner: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he is satisfied with the current rate of inflation; and if he will make a statement.

Mr. Canavan: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his latest estimate of the rate of inflation; and if he will make a statement.

Mr. Healey: The retail price index rose by 22·9 per cent. over the 12 months to February, the sixth successive month in which the year-on-year rate of inflation has fallen. The annual rate of increase, excluding seasonal food, in the six months to February, was 13·3 per cent. This represents substantial progress towards the target of single figures by the end of the year. But I shall not be satisfied until inflation is reduced to a level at least no higher than that of our competitors.

Mr. Skinner: Yes, it is still very high. Does my right hon. Friend accept that the recent handling of the difficulties of sterling will to some extent undermine his problems when dealing with the trade union leaders in the next round of the incomes policy? Does he accept that a widening of the depreciation of sterling by about 4 per cent. against the other major currencies reduces real disposable income by about £800 million? Does that mean that any possible £800 million worth of tax cuts in the Budget next week have already been cancelled out and

cannot become part of the incomes policy that my right hon. Friend is trying to arrange?

Mr. Healey: I think that my hon. Friend will understand, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Battersea, North (Mr. Jay) said a moment ago, that in a world of floating exchange rates it is inevitable that such rates over a period will reflect comparative inflation rates in various countries. The recent fall in the international value of the pound sterling reflects excessive inflation in our own system over the past 12 to 18 months, but inflation is now being reduced very rapidly, thanks to the £6 pay limit.
My hon. Friend will be aware of the argument in the recent National Institute Review that a depreciation of 5 per cent. would lead to an increase of 200,000 jobs by the end of next year. I am sure that that consequence, at least, is one which my hon. Friend would welcome.

Mr. Watt: Does the right hon. Gentleman recognise that he will not get inflation under control until we have a basic change in economic policy? Does he not realise that until we stop importing food which we could provide from our own land and resources this country will never get back on its feet?

Mr. Healey: The House knows that there was a fundamental change in our policy, introduced as a result of the initiative of the TUC in July. That has already led to a dramatic fall in our rate of inflation. I cannot see how controlling inflation will be assisted if we buy more expensive food at home, rather than cheaper food from abroad, though I recognise that for balance of payments' reasons it is important to maximise the output of home-grown food.

Mr. Canavan: Bearing in mind that the Scottish conference of the Labour Party condemned the Treasury's counter-inflation policy, will my right hon. Friend give an assurance that when the City and the CBI start twisting his arm for even more wage restraint and less price restraint, he will tell them where to get off, in his own inimitable language?

Mr. Healey: I am glad to see that my hon. Friend is none the worse for the amenities that we recently exchanged. If I feel it necessary to tell anybody to get


off anything, I shall make it clear that that is my view.

Sir G. Howe: Will the right hon. Gentleman bear in mind and ram home more than he has so far the fact that if the downward floating of sterling is, as he says, an inevitable consequence of a higher rate of inflation in this country, there can be no escape from a fall in real living standards if our economic policies are to prosper? If we are not to lose whatever advantage there may be from the downward float, will he underline that fact and appreciate that his policies for getting inflation under control will come increasingly under threat and into danger if he fails to recognise the need to embark on public expenditure cuts now, because otherwise he will find it extremely difficult to maintain a policy to control inflation?

Mr. Healey: I think the right hon. and learned Gentleman is confusing quite discrete issues. Certainly the advantages of competitivity, which derive from a lowering of the external value of the currency, will be lost if the consequent increase in inflationary pressures lead to an increase in wage costs at home. Whether, in the situation in which Britain now finds itself, depreciation may lead to an overall fall in real disposable income is an entirely different question.

Mr. Speaker: Before calling the next Question, I urge hon. Members to ask supplementary questions and not to argue a case.

Mr. William Hamilton: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement on the progress made towards his target of reducing the rate of inflation to single figures before the end of 1976.

Mr. Healey: I would refer my hon. Friend to the answer I gave earlier to my hon. Friend the Member for Bolsover (Mr. Skinner).

Mr. Hamilton: I assume that my right hon. Friend was not using obscene language. Will he say whether or not he has the assent of the trade unions to the next phase of the incomes policy? Will he have it by Tuesday, and will he be announcing it in the Budget? Did he not say a few months ago that his Budget

judgment would depend on whether he secured that kind of agreement?

Mr. Healey: It is not appropriate for the TUC at this stage of the current wage round to reach a final conclusion on the policy for the next wage round, which begins on 1st August next. However, I have been in continual contact with leaders of the TUC and I shall be framing my Budget in the light of what I know of their intentions.

Capital Outflows

Mr. Les Huckfield: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will make a statement about capital outflows from Great Britain in 1975; and how this compares with previous years.

The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Joel Barnett): The measurement of capital flows is very complex. The statistics record the effect of net capital flows. In 1975, net capital inflows, including unidentified flows, are provisionally estimated at £610 million. This compares with net inflows of £3,160 million in 1974 and £1,111 million in 1973. Details were released to the Press on 8th March and will be published on 2nd April in the Central Statistical Office's "Economic Trends", a copy of which will be placed in the Library.

Mr. Huckfield: Does my right hon. Friend accept that the outflow situation is very serious? For example, does he realise that in 1973 the total direct outward investment from this country, excluding oil, was 120 per cent. greater than in 1972, more than the total fixed investment by nationalised industries in that year, and more than half the private investment by companies in the United Kingdom? Is it not time that the Treasury seriously examined its whole policy on outflows and inflows?

Mr. Barnett: If my hon. Friend examines the figures, he will find that direct investment overseas is largely represented by profits retained locally—ploughed-back profits—which are subject to very strict exchange control.

Mr. Farr: Will the right hon. Gentleman recheck his figures, because, in every respect, his answer related to inflows while the original Question related only to outflows?

Mr. Barnett: I do not blame the hon. Gentleman, but he may not have caught my whole answer. I said this is a very complex area, and all the records are for net flows. I was therefore giving the net flows, which happens to be net inflows.

Mr. Hooley: What action is my right hon. Friend taking to stop the outflow of capital to South Africa?

Mr. Barnett: If my hon. Friend cares to table a Question on that matter, I shall deal with it.

Expenditure

Mr. Lawson: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his best estimate of the public expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product during the calendar year 1975.

Mr. Joel Barnett: Provisionally, 59 per cent.

Mr. Lawson: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that the provisional figure is, if anything, on the low side, and that for the coming year it is likely to be higher? Is he further aware that it is for this reason and no other that it would be highly irresponsible for the Chancellor of the Exchequer to introduce any net reductions in taxation in his Budget?

Mr. Barnett: I am sure that my right hon. Friend will note the hon. Member's advice.

Mr. Skinner: Does my right hon. Friend agree with the Home Secretary, who says that if the percentage goes over 60 there are dangers for a pluralist democracy?

Mr. Barnett: I do not necessarily agree with that statement. Both Norway and Sweden, which are excellent social democracies, have higher levels, although they also have very much higher levels of GDP, which I hope we shall be able to obtain if we continue to pursue our present policies, with my hon. Friend's support.

Mr. Gow: Does the right hon. Gentleman accept that during the past three years public expenditure has increased by 20 per cent. while output has increased by 2 per cent.? What forecast does he make for the next three years, assuming he will still be in office?

Mr. Barnett: I am surprised the hon. Member asks that question. We put this information in the White Paper and told him precisely what it was. I have no doubt that this Government will be in office over the next three years and, indeed, very much longer, and that our position will improve considerably.

Mr. Michael Latham: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he proposes to revise the present public expenditure White Paper in the next six months.

Mr. Joel Barnett: As explained in paragraph 33 of the White Paper, we shall be ready to modify and adapt our plans as the general course of the economy and the most important needs of the community require.

Mr. Latham: Would it not be reasonable to re-examine and redraft, as a matter of urgency, a document on which the Government were unable to command a majority in the House?

Mr. Barnett: No, Sir.

Mr. Dalyell: After the pressures of the Budget are over, would Treasury Ministers consider an addendum to the White Paper to reflect, in the light of yesterday's defence debate, the cost of a separate Scottish army, Scottish air force and tartan navy?

Mr. Barnett: I know of my hon. Friend's considerable interest in this matter. I do not see that it would be necessary to issue an addendum to the White Paper to deal with these questions, but if he cares to table a specific Question I shall be glad to see whether we can give him the appropriate answer.

Mrs. Bain: When revising his attitude to public expenditure, will the right hon. Gentleman bear in mind the very strong representations from various parts of the community about educational expenditure, particularly in Scotland, where we have to bear 39 per cent. of these cuts? Does the right hon. Gentleman not agree that it will be necessary for Scotland to expand education in order to train people to take up the positions that we shall have in an independent Scotland?

Mr. Barnett: I hear a lot on these matters from my hon. Friends and I


tend to take more notice of their views than of the hon. Lady's. If she looks at the total public expenditure per head in Scotland, she will see that it is considerably more than in the United Kingdom as a whole.

Tax Structure

Mr. Cryer: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he is satisfied with the present tax structure

Mr. Joel Barnett: My right hon. Friend has already introduced a number of improvements in the tax structure, and the process will continue.

Mr. Cryer: Does my right hon. Friend accept that the redistributive element in the tax structure is far from perfect and that wealthy people could still make a considerable further contribution? Does he accept that other Western European countries, including those in the EEC, have a much higher rate of tax? Does he agree that it is time a wealth tax was introduced, so that the process which he and I want to see—the redistribution of wealth in favour of working people and their families—is carried forward with increasing momentum?

Mr. Barnett: I agree with much of what my hon. Friend says, but in recent years the combination of inflation, the incomes policy and direct taxation has had a considerable redistributive effect, the details of which will be dealt with by my right hon. Friend in his Budget Statement on Tuesday.

Mr. Michael Marshall: Is the Chief Secretary aware that the Government's policy on VAT is a direct incentive to black market activities in the purchase of galvanised eye straining bolts, paraffin lamps and portable tools? Will he make sure that his right hon. Friend does something about it next year, otherwise I shall continue to draw the attention of the House to the anomalies of VAT?

Mr. Barnett: I am sure that the hon. Gentleman will also bear in mind who introduced VAT. My right hon. Friend will bear in mind what the hon. Gentleman said.

Mrs. Millie Miller: When looking at the tax structure, will my right hon. Friend bear in mind that taxation was specifically excluded from consideration

under the Sex Discrimination Act, which means that all women, not only widows, suffer serious injustices from taxation, as do people of either sex who are trying single-handed to bring up families?

Mr. Barnett: I think my hon. Friend will know that we are indeed aware of the problems in relation to widows, and particularly single-parent families. We have done a great deal for them already, I am sure that my right hon. Friend in introducing his Budget on Tuesday, will have taken note of all that my hon. Friend has said.

Mr. Bulmer: Will the Chief Secretary tell the House whether the Government anticipated the effect of 25 per cent. VAT on employment—which in my constituency has been disastrous—and, if not, why not?

Mr. Barnett: My right hon. Friend took all these matters into account, and will be doing so when he introduces his Budget on Tuesday.

Mr. Heffer: My hon. Friend said that the various measures taken by the Government on inflation had a considerable effect on the redistribution of wealth. Will he explain what he means?

Mr. Barnett: If my hon. Friend was listening, as I am sure he was, he may have noted that I was referring not to wealth but to the redistribution of income. If he looks at the figures he will find, as I do, that the combination of inflation, incomes policies, and the failure of successive Governments to revalorise personal allowances as much as they would have liked, has had a substantial redistributive effect.

Companies (London Headquarters)

Mr. Ridsdale: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his estimate of the number of companies which have recently moved their headquarters from London to the Continent for tax reasons.

The Minister of State, Treasury (Mr. Derail Davies): Treasury consent is not given where a move is planned for tax reasons. So far in 1976 three moves by companies to the Continent have been approved on commercial grounds.

Mr. Ridsdale: Is it not very disturbing? Is it not because of the vindictive


tax rates in the higher income brackets introduced by the Chancellor? Should not we give an incentive to foreign companies to come and work in this country instead of driving them away?

Mr. Davies: I do not know to what the hon. Gentleman refers when he says that it is very disturbing. In fact, the figures are quite low and there is strict control on the movement of company headquarters from this country. I do not accept what the hon. Gentleman said about high tax rates.

Mr. Geoffrey Finsberg: Does not the hon. Gentleman agree that a fair number of companies are also leaving London because of the growing crippling burden of local rates?

Mr. Davies: That is another question entirely. We exercise strict control on income tax and exchange control.

Mr. Anthony Grant: Does the hon. Gentleman know how many companies are moving their headquarters from London to the development areas as a result of his policies?

Mr. Davies: That is another question. Our development policies have produced some equalisation in wealth of productive capacity between London and other areas. That is a proper policy to adopt in a country in which there has been a considerable concentration of wealth in London and the South-East.

Mr. David Howell: Does the Minister support the view expressed by the Chancellor in the Wall Street Journal of 2nd March this year that the levels and burdens of taxation have no effect on economic growth and performance in this country?

Mr. Davies: The levels and burdens of taxation are not the only factor. Levels of taxation impinge on all ranges of income. People at the lower as well as at the higher end of the scale suffer from the high burden of taxation.

Mr. George Rodgers: Is it not true to say that many commercial and industrial undertakings in the City of London are deliberately withholding payment of

rates, appealing against them and so avoiding payment for up to three years?

Family and Child Tax Allowances

Mr. Peter Bottomley: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list for a two-child family the combined value of family allowance and child tax allowance for a standard rate taxpayer as a percentage of the average industrial take-home earnings for the years 1968 to 1976.

Mr. Denzil Davies: With permission, I will circulate the full information in the Official Report. Although there has been some fluctuation, the combined value of the family allowance and child tax allowance as a percentage of average industrial take-home earnings has declined slightly from 10·6 per cent. in 1968–69 to 8·7 per cent. in 1975–76.

Mr. Bottomley: Will the Government recognise that this is at the heart of the whole problem of incentive to work, and that a person on average earnings with two children is only £12 a week better off than if he were not working?

Mr. Davies: We have recognised that. As I said, there has been some reduction in the real value of these allowances. In framing taxation policy that is one factor of which we have to take account.

Mrs. Hayman: In view of that reply, will the Minister undertake to raise family allowances in the Budget?

Mr. Davies: I am sure that my right hon. Friend will note my hon. Friend's suggestion.

Sir George Young: Does the Minister accept that over the past 10 years there has been a shift of the burden of taxation away from families without children to those with children? Does he intend to reverse that shift in the forthcoming Budget?

Mr. Davies: The figures that I mentioned show that there has been some shift and that the real value of the child allowance has fallen. I accept that there has been some shift of the burden from people without children to people with children.

Following is the information:

Assuming that the children are not over 11, the figures are as follows:


Year


Combined value of FAM and CT As as % of average industrial take-home earnings


1968–69
…
…
10·6


1969–70
…
…
9·9


1970–71
…
…
9·1


1971–72
…
…
10·2


1972–73
…
…
8·8


1973–74
…
…
7·9


1974–75
…
…
7·8


1975–76
…
…
8·7

1. Take-home earnings are the annual equivalent of the average earnings—less tax and National Insurance contributions—of full-time male manual workers aged 21 and over in manufacturing and certain other industries at October of each year. The National Insurance contributions relate to an adult male worker not "contracted out" of the Graduated Pension Scheme, and include graduated contributions.

2. The calculations take account of the family allowance deduction for income tax

Investment Income

Mr. Christopher Price: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer when he intends to re-integrate the investment income of children with that of their parents.

Mr. Denzil Davies: I cannot anticipate my right hon. Friend's Budget Statement.

Mr. Price: I accept that, but is my hon. Friend aware that this excellent Socialist redistributive measure was introduced seven years ago by my right hon. Friend the present Home Secretary when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer? Will the Minister remind his right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer that in his forthcoming Budget he will not wish to appear to be any less Socialist than his predecessor was in 1969?

Mr. Davies: I have no doubt that my right hon. Friend is well aware of my hon. Friend's views on this matter.

Mr. Mike Thomas: Will my hon. Friend confirm that his right hon. Friend is still committed to this measure? On several occasions the Chancellor of the Exchequer has stated that he is committed to it but has put forward technical reasons, such as the length of the Finance Bill, why he cannot incorporate it. Is he still in favour of it?

Mr. Davies: As my hon. Friend says, a number of technical matters have to be considered. I assure him that everything he says will be taken into account.

Mr. Ridsdale: Does not the Minister wish to encourage savings? Are not the Socialist measures that the Government introduce one way of preventing real saving?

Mr. Davies: Of course, we want to encourage savings. Most of these measures are tax avoidance, measures which have nothing to do with saving. They are an attempt to shift income from wealthy parents to children with lower tax rates.

Overseas Debts (Capital Repayment)

Mr. Rost: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will estimate the additional burden of capital repayments on current overseas indebtedness, and extra annual interest charges, which will result from the recent devaluation of sterling.

Mr. Joel Barnett: The total outstanding foreign currency borrowing by Her Majesty's Government and the public sector converted at Exchange rates in force on 4th March was equivalent to £7·8 billion, against £8·1 billion using exchange rates at the close on 23rd March. Much of the borrowing is on floating interest rate terms and the servicing cost cannot be predicted exactly. But, at current interest rates, and using exchange rates in force on 4th and 23rd March, the annual cost of servicing outstanding borrowing would be equivalent to about £450 million and £470 million, respectively.

Mr. Rost: When and how will the Chancellor repay these crippling debts with which the nation has been lumbered by his policies?

Mr. Barnett: He will not be helped by that kind of supplementary question. He will be helped by the policies that we are pursuing, which will ensure that the debts will be reduced. We shall get the economy into balance by continuing the economic policies that we have been pursuing over the past two years—and which we shall pursue for many years to come.

Mr. Trotter: Will the Chief Secretary tell us the reasons for the significant further fall in the value of the pound? Does he put any credence on the view that it might be due to the possibility of the Secretary of State for Employment's becoming the next Prime Minister?

Mr. Barnett: I suppose the answer to that is "Oh, really". The hon. Gentleman will be aware that the reason for the depreciation is that our rate of inflation is higher than is the rate of inflation in other countries. Present policies are bringing down substantially that rate of inflation.

Mr. Nott: Will the Chief Secretary explain what he meant when he said a moment ago that our overseas debts will be reduced? At the moment, the exchange rate is falling and overseas debts are increasing. How will they be reduced, short of repaying them earlier?

Mr. Barnett: One way is by a higher rate of growth of GDP and a lower proportion of GDP being taken for public expenditure.

Value Added Tax

Mr. Adley: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will pay an official visit to Lymington for the purpose of assessing the effect of 25 per cent. VAT on the boatbuilding industry.

Mr. Denzil Davies: My right hon. Friend has no plans to visit Lymington.

Mr. Adley: As the price of the Chancellor of the Exchequer's spiteful leer at my right hon. Friend the Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath), when announcing a rate of 25 per cent. VAT on boat building, is being paid by my constituents in terms of lost jobs, and notwithstanding the fact that the Chancellor of the Exchequer lost his deposit last Thursday, will he now reverse this damaging decision, the sole aim of which appears to have been to appease the left-wing of his party?

Mr. Davies: The hon. Gentleman, as usual, exaggerates and overstates his case.

Mr. Adley: No, I do not.

Mr. Davies: We have accepted that 25 per cent. VAT could have had some effect on employment, but the main effect on the boatbuilding industry and other industries has been the recession, in this country and world-wide. It has not been the 25 per cent. rate of VAT.

Mr. R. C. Mitchell: I dissociate myself from the rather silly remarks of the hon. Member for Christchurch and Lymington (Mr. Adley), but will the Minister nevertheless have another look at the employment position arising directly from the 25 per cent. rate of VAT on boatbuilding? I do not think that it is quite as good as the Minister thinks it is.

Mr. Davies: As we have said on other occasions, we are monitoring the effect of VAT on various industries, and the results will be taken into account in my right hon. Friend's Budget.

Mr. Stephen Ross: Is the Minister aware that five miles from Lymington is my constituency—the Isle of Wight—where 8·2 per cent of the people are unemployed, and where a reduction in VAT at this moment would be of great assistance to the boatbuilding industry?

Mr. Davies: Yes.

Dr. Bray: Is my hon. Friend aware that the boatbuilding industry has considerably increased its exports in recent months as a result of the fall in the home market? Will he examine the situation to see whether it is possible to find further measures to help it with exports, because, for the relatively small volume concerned, export credits are not as easily available as for much larger contracts?

Mr. Davies: My hon. Friend is quite right. There has been an increase in exports, and exports do not suffer from the 25 per cent. rate of VAT. The best way to help the exports of boats and other products is by containing our domestic inflation.

Sir David Renton: Is the hon. Gentleman aware that it is not only a question of lost jobs and lost exports but of the loss of hardly-acquired skills, which are not easily replaced? Will he bear that in mind in his future thoughts about the rate of VAT for boat building?

Mr. Davies: I was not aware that there was a question of loss of exports. Indeed,


exports have improved. As I mentioned, a 25 per cent. rate of VAT might have had some effect on employment, but the main effect has been the recession.

Sir G. Howe: Will the Minister take as many opportunities as are now left to him before the Budget to drive home to the Chancellor of the Exchequer the folly of ever having moved on to a multi-rate VAT system? Will he make it plain to the Chancellor of the Exchequer that it is not only in the boatbuilding industry that jobs are being lost, but that trade and industry throughout the country have been greatly disturbed by this, and that thousands of jobs are being cast away by the reckless spate and unnecessary change of taxes? Will the Minister tell the Chancellor of the Exchequer to get back to a single rate as soon as possible?

Mr. Davies: I do not accept what the right hon. and learned Gentleman says about the folly of multi-rate systems. The Common Market countries which have this tax—it was introduced here by a Conservative Government—do not seem to have suffered particularly as a result.

Mr. Stonehouse: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he is satisfied with the system of Treasury control over expenditure by Government Departments; and what measures he proposes to ensure the application of cost-effective techniques.

Mr. Joel Barnett: We are committed to a number of measures for better control of expenditure, and we are constantly seeking ways of ensuring cost-effectiveness.

Mr. Stonehouse: Will the Chief Secretary look at the answer that the Minister for the Civil Service gave me last night, in which he stated that there are 200 computers in use in Departments? As most of these have been introduced since 1964 for the sake of saving manpower, how is it that Civil Service non-industrial manpower has gone up by 30 per cent. in the last 12 years? As this, surely, shows a degree of overmanning that is quite unacceptable, what is to be done about it to show an example to the rest of Britain?

Mr. Barnett: As the right hon. Gentleman will have seen from the White Paper. steps are being taken to

reduce the size of the Civil Service. I am glad of the right hon. Gentleman's support.

Mr. Ridley: Is the Chief Secretary aware that in the Health Service, as the number of beds occupied has decreased so the number of administrative staff has increased, according to the Government's own White Paper? What will the Chief Secretary do about the growth of the bureaucracy? It will take over the whole of our life unless he does something about it soon.

Mr. Barnett: As I am sure the hon. Gentleman is aware—he is always ready to criticise his own side—the reorganisation of the Health Service was largely the responsibility of a Conservative Government.

International Monetary Fund

Mr. Hooley: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer when he next expects to meet the Director of the International Monetary Fund.

Mr. Crawford: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer when he next intends to attend a meeting of the IMF.

Mr. Healey: There are no arrangements for me to meet Dr. Witteveen at the moment, though he is always welcome here. The next meeting of the IMF Board of Governors is the annual meeting, planned to take place in October.

Mr. Hooley: When my right hon. Friend meets the Director of the IMF, will be impress on him the great contribution that the IMF could make towards solving the present world recession problems by increasing special drawing rights for the benefit of developing countries, accelerating the sale of gold to provide them with extra purchasing power, and also expanding the compensatory financing scheme? This would have an impact not only on the developing countries but on our own economy.

Mr. Healey: I am grateful to my hon. Friend. He will be aware that the IMF Interim Committee took decisions in all these fields, under strong urging from myself, at the meeting in Jamaica in January.

Mr. Crawford: Will the Chancellor of the Exchequer tell the IMF that he will


very shortly have to rely on the good will of a Scottish Government in regard to Scottish oil revenues, in trying to keep English currency at a reasonably healthy level?

Mr. Healey: I always believe, like Dr. Witteveen, in confining my remarks to fact and not to fancy.

Mr. Hordern: Will the Chancellor of the Exchequer say how much of the reecnt IMF loan has been drawn down by the Government, and what remains of the loan? Has the Chancellor of the Exchequer anything to change in, or add to, his latest letter to the Director of the International Monetary Fund?

Mr. Healey: On the first question, the only drawing under the application I made last year has been the drawing of the special oil facility. The first tranche is completely untouched. I have no intention of changing anything I said in my letter of application.

Mr. Cryer: Will my right hon. Friend confirm that the International Monetary Fund in no way controls the will or desire of the British Labour Government to apply selective import controls if they so choose? Bearing that in mind, does he not agree that this is an economic technique that the Government must consider if British manufacturing industry is to recover?

Mr. Healey: I have always made it clear that the Government are prepared to consider selective import controls on the conditions agreed by the Labour Party conference—that they should not lead to retaliation or introduce a risk of an international trade war, from which the poorest countries would suffer most. My hon. Friend will remember that we introduced two such controls in the package of measures just before Christmas.

Mr. Nott: Will the Chancellor of the Exchequer say whether there are any additional facilities available to us from the IMF at the present time, and, if so, whether any of these facilities can be drawn without conditions?

Mr. Healey: We have a standby for SDR 700 million, which is equivalent to about £420 million. I have the right to draw under the letter of application which I tendered in December, but I

have not yet drawn and I have no intention of drawing at present. Our further drawing rights, under the present extension of credit quotas to 45 per cent., will increase our total drawing rights by SDR 3,360 million.

Mr. Dalyell: On the question of a separate Scottish currency, will my right hon. Friend lose no opportunity of repeating the case so ably set out in my constituency by the Paymaster-General that that would mean a more serious employment situation in Scotland?

Mr. Healey: I am always happy to oblige my hon. Friend, particularly in this regard.

Savings

Mr. George Rodgers: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he is now prepared to extend the facility of "inflation-proofed" national saving.

Mr. Joel Barnett: The Government have no plans to extend the indexed savings schemes which were introduced as a modest experiment in mid-1975.

Mr. Rodgers: Does my right hon. Friend agree that during a period when wages and salaries are being diminished in real terms it would be a demonstration of confidence in the anti-inflation policy if he introduced and extended such a scheme?

Mr. Barnett: There is a problem with indexed savings schemes in relation to the whole interest structure. We must see how these modest schemes are working before we consider anything further.

Mr. McCrindle: Has the right hon. Gentleman anything to suggest to the private savings media about how they can possibly compete against inflation-proofed national savings? Would it not be better for the Government to concentrate on reducing inflation rather than extending the inflation-proofed savings scheme?

Mr. Barnett: I think that the hon. Gentleman knows that we are concentrating on reducing the rate of inflation, and he will no doubt be as pleased as we are at the substantial reduction that we have achieved. Private savings have increased considerably. As I indicated, one of the reasons why we did not have a much bigger indexed savings scheme


was precisely that we do not want to hurt the rest of the savings movement.

Tobacco Duty

Sir George Young: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what representations he has recently received from Action on Smoking and Health concerning the relationship between the tax on tobacco and its consumption.

Mr. Denzil Davies: My hon. Friend the Financial Secretary met a deputation, including the hon. Member for Ealing, Acton (Sir G. Young) on 11th March. It represented that the price of tobacco is a major determinant of changes in consumption and advocated that the tax on cigarettes should be substantially increased so as to discourage young people from starting to smoke them and to encourage existing smokers to adopt safer smoking habits.

Sir G. Young: Is the Minister prepared to use the fiscal weapons at his disposal in order to reduce the consumption of tobacco in this country?

Mr. Davies: The points made by the deputation are most important and are being studied. I am not entirely convinced that fiscal policy is always the right way to protect the public as the hon. Member would wish.

Mr. Pavitt: Does the £50 million spent by the tobacco companies in promoting sales, particularly sales to young persons, qualify for tax relief?

Mr. Davies: Any sums spent by a company for promoting its sales, of tobacco or otherwise, are usually treated as a business expense if they are wholly and exclusively incurred.

Mr. Peter Bottomley: If the Government put up the duty on tobacco and raised tax allowances to balance, it would have a relatively adverse effect upon the retail price index. Will the Minister therefore give some thought to preventing that effect percolating through the rest of the economy?

Mr. Davies: If indirect taxes generally are increased, that has an effect on the retail price index.

Voluntary Savings Movement

Mr. Steen: asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what are the social

objectives of the voluntary savings movement.

Mr. Joel Barnett: The National Savings committees see the social objectives as the teaching and inculcation of good money management and a sense of personal financial responsibility.

Mr. Steen: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that it is total hypocrisy to invite people to save and then to make their money meaningless 10 years later?

Mr. Barnett: I admire the hon. Member's management of that supplementary question. I am sure that he will agree that the best way to encourage savings of all kinds is to ensure that the rate of inflation is brought down—and that is what the Chancellor is doing.

GOVERNMENT POLICIES

Mr. Lawson: asked the Prime Minister if he is satisfied with the progress being made in implementing the policies set out in the Queen's Speech.

The Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons (Mr. Edward Short): As the House knows, my right hon. Friend is attending a meeting of the European Council in Luxembourg today and tomorrow and, in his absence, I have been asked to reply.
Yes, Sir.

Mr. Lawson: I am sorry that the Prime Minister cannot be with us today, if only to wave the pound goodbye. Is the Lord President aware how sad it is that someone who began as a tour de force should have ended up forced to tour?

Mr. Short: The hon. Gentleman asked what progress we were making in implementing the policies set out in the Queen's Speech. Of the Bills mentioned there, four have already received the Royal Assent, 13 are before Parliament—some having made substantial progress—and the remaining Bills are due to be introduced slowly—I am sorry, I should have said "shortly".

Mr. Bidwell: The Queen's Speech referred to improving the common agricultural policy. What progress has been made in that direction?

Mr. Short: Perhaps I may explain that I meant to say that the Bills would be


introduced quickly—very quickly, and certainly before Easter.
On my hon. Friend's supplementary question, I have no doubt that my right hon. Friends the Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary will be raising this matter in the European Council in Luxembourg today and tomorrow.

Mr. Gwynfor Evans: On devolution, is the right hon. Gentleman aware of the significant improvements that have been suggested by the Labour Party at least on the Scottish part of the measures, and that no such improvements are suggested for Wales in spite of pressure from the Welsh TUC? Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that Wales will not long tolerate a status inferior to that of Scotland?

Mr. Short: We have received hundreds of submissions from a great many bodies throughout the country, including an excellent one from the Welsh TUC. We shall take all these into account before publishing the Bill.

Mr. Heffer: Is my right hon. Friend aware that the Scottish Labour Party conference may have made some suggestions for what it regards as improvements, but that it is totally opposed to any separation from the United Kingdom; and that it is as keen and dedicated to remain part of the United Kingdom as are the rest of us.

Mr. Short: I am glad that my hon. Friend saw some light on the way to Damascus last weekend. He will also have seen the excellent statement by the TUC—not the Scottish TUC but the United Kingdom TUC—published last week on devolution, warmly supporting the Government's proposals.

Mr. Donald Stewart: Since the Labour Party in Scotland has made some improvements on the right hon. Gentleman's original package, since that package concerns one of the important promises in the Queen's Speech, and since all the starters in the race for the leadership of the Labour Party have been converted to devolution in the last two weeks, will the right hon. Gentleman bring the Bill forward as quickly as possible?

Mr. Short: The draft Bill will be published as early as possible. Let me repeat: we have received hundreds of submissions, some of great length. We

are trying to digest all these. We shall publish the Bill when we have looked at all the submissions.

Mr. Whitelaw: The right hon. Gentleman referred to "the Bill" and "the draft Bill". Does that mean that the decision has been taken and that the idea of having separate Bills for Scotland and Wales has now been abandoned? If that is so, does the right hon. Gentleman appreciate that many people will think that that is a very bad decision indeed?

Mr. Short: We have not yet taken a decision on this matter. I gave an undertaking to the right hon. Gentleman when he raised this matter in debate, and a number of other hon. Members have raised it. I think that a group of Members is coming to see me next week about this issue. Certainly we shall consider all the representations that we have had before we decide.

ROYAL COMMISSIONS

Mr. Steen: asked the Prime Minister whether he considers advice from public officials when making recommendations about the suitability of appointing individuals to Royal Commissions.

Mr. Edward Short: I have been asked to reply.
Yes, Sir. Official advice is always available to my right hon. Friend in the exercise of his official functions.

Mr. Steen: Does the Leader of the House know whether the Prime Minister is aware that many of those serving on Royal Commissions and public bodies are either octogenarians or Civil Service favourites? Will he please advise the Prime Minister to see that a greater cross-section of the community is involved in these public bodies, particularly minority groups, such as women, blacks, the physically handicapped, and young people, and in this way to enhance his effigy at Madame Tussauds?

Mr. Short: I rather suspected that the hon. Gentleman would raise the question of age, so I had some research done on this matter. Of the last 66 appointments to seven new bodies, the average age was 52, and the ages of the chairmen averaged 59·6 years. On the point about extending the area, the hon. Gentleman will


know that the Prime Minister has taken a number of steps recently——

Mr. Adley: He has resigned.

Mr. Short: I agree. His resignation will considerably broaden and improve the quality of people available to serve on public bodies.
On the second part of the supplementary question of the hon. Member for Liverpool, Wavertree (Mr. Steen), he will know that the Prime Minister has recently created the Public Appointments Unit, which has been instructed to publish in the first half of this year a directory of paid appointments made by Ministers. Also, there is great scope for advertising some of the executive posts. The hon. Gentleman may have noticed the recent advertisement for a Director General of Fair Trading. Changes are taking place in these matters.

Mr. Christopher Price: Will my right hon. Friend urge the Prime Minister, in his last few days of office, to get on with the appointment of the Chairman of the Royal Commission on the Legal Professions, as he promised he would? Is my right hon. Friend aware that there is a need to appoint a really distinguished layman to get a grip of the monopolistic practices of the legal professions, and that the sooner we get on with it the sooner we can do something about them?

Mr. Short: My right hon. Friend the Prime Minister agrees that the Chairman should be a distinguished layman and not a lawyer. In the case of this Royal Commission, neither the Chairman nor any of the members has been appointed so far. In the case of the Royal Commission on the National Health Service, the Chairman has been appointed, but not the members. In the case of the Royal Commission on Gambling, both the Chairman and the members have been appointed, and I think that it has now started work.

Mr. Michael Marshall: When the Lord President says that the average age of members of Royal Commissions is 52, is he giving a weighted average, or is it, as I suspect, that some are 104 and others are down to something near to zero?

Mr. Raphael Tuck: Although I cannot yet declare an interest, what is wrong with octogenarians?

The Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Robert Mellish): They are too old.

Mr. Raphael Tuck: Too old for What? Will my right hon. Friend the Lord President inform the hon. Member for Liverpool, Wavertree (Mr. Steen) of what the great Bacon once said, namely, that extreme youth and discretion are ill-assorted companions?

Mr. Short: My hon. Friend asked what was wrong with octogenarians, as such. The answer is "Nothing—except that they are octogenarians." He answered the second part of his question himself.

TRADES UNION CONGRESS

Mr. George Rodgers: asked the Prime Minister when he next intends to meet the TUC.

Mr. Edward Short: I have been asked to reply.
I refer my hon. Friend to the reply which my right hon, Friend gave to the hon. Member for Brentwood and Ongar (Mr. McCrindle) on 16th March, Sir.

Mr. Rodgers: Will my right hon. Friend suggest to the Prime Minister that when he next meets the TUC he pursues the question of industrial planning agreements? Is my right hon. Friend aware that there is increasing concern among trade unionists at shop floor level about the apparent failure to implement any such agreement to date? Will he advise the House whether there are any major problems in this area?

Mr. Short: There are no major problems. The National Enterprise Board is getting to work. It has already been announced that planning agreements are to be drawn up with British Leyland and Chrysler, and the Government are engaged in formal discussions with a number of other leading companies about the prospects of introducing planning agreements into key sectors of manufacturing industry. Certainly this work is going on. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Industry hopes to


make an announcement on this matter shortly.

Mr. Maxwell-Hyslop: Is there any danger that if the Prime Minister is overcome, on the one hand, by the desire to meet the TUC again, or, on the other, by disapproval of the result of the election for his successor, he may not resign after all?

Mr. Short: The person appointed to succeed my right hon. Friend will have the full support of the present Prime Minister and all his colleagues, without exception.

Mr. Mike Noble: When my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister next meets the TUC, will be explain that the reason that its members will be unable to hear the Budget broadcast is the reluctance of the Leader of the Opposition, who is afraid to appear in public without the support of her script writers and public relations officers? Will my right hon. Friend reconsider the decision not to broadcast the Budget Statement, in the interests of democracy and open government?

Mr. Short: No, Sir, I would not put it just like that. I said in the House last week or the previous week that if there were a demand for this we would have discussions through the usual channels. We had such discussions. I also received representations from a number of hon. Members, on both sides of the House, against having the Budget broadcast. In view of the discussions that we had and all the representations I received, I felt that I should not put a motion before the House ahead of the general motion on the permanent broadcasting of Parliament's proceedings.

Mr. Aitken: Since this Question has now touched on matters of freedom of speech, will the Leader of the House please ask the TUC why it has supported the national executive of the National Union of Journalists, despite criticism by the Secretary of State for Employment, in the NUJ's attempts to pressurise news sources in Barnsley to deny access to news for the members of the smaller journalists' union, the Institute of Journalists?

Mr. Short: Without accepting anything that the hon. Gentleman has said, I am

sure that it does not arise out of this Question.

Mr. Ashton: When the new Prime Minister meets the TUC, would it not be a good idea for him to initiate a system of trouble-shooters for the next round of pay talks? Is it not crazy that during a strike at British Leyland, because of a pay anomaly affecting a handful of men, there is no body set up to examine the matter quickly and to bring the strike swiftly to an end?

Mr. Short: As my hon. Friend knows, the Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service is involved in the dispute at present. It would be unwise for me or for any of us to pursue the matter now.

EXPENDITURE

Mr. Gow: asked the Prime Minister whether he is satisfied with the coordination between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and other Ministers in implementing the Government's White Paper on Public Expenditure.

Mr. Edward Short: I have been asked to reply.
Yes, Sir.

Mr. Gow: Will the right hon. Gentleman try to give the House a rather more imaginative reply? Is it not the case that if there is to be a recovery in the wealth-creating sector of British industry, which Britain's interest requires, there need to be substantial cuts in public expenditure in the coming year?

Mr. Short: We reject that suggestion entirely. When the economy is running below capacity, such a suggestion would result in further unemployment. We have made our proposals in regard to public expenditure to create an improvement in investment and in exports when the economy begins its upturn.

Mr. Cryer: Will my right hon. Friend explain how, following any cuts in public expenditure, the resulting resources will be transferred to British manufacturing industry? Is it not the duty of a Labour Government to take action in this sphere, rather than leave the matter to the vagaries of private enterprise by


allocating that money to property companies or fringe banks, or sending it to South Africa?

Mr. Short: The matter will not be left to the people my hon. Friend mentioned. No doubt private enterprise will play a considerable part. We shall ensure that not too great a share of resources will be absorbed by public authorities, and I am sure that there will be an opportunity greatly to increase our exports.

Mrs. Thatcher: Does the Lord President agree that the House refused to accept the Government's proposals on Government expenditure?

Mr. Short: The following day the House passed a motion of confidence. Perhaps I could also remind the right hon. Lady that the Government of which she was a member were rejected. The Conservative Party received 1 million fewer votes than did the Labour Party in the election only 18 months ago, and 43 fewer seats than the Labour Party won in that election.

Mrs. Thatcher: But the right hon. Gentleman has not answered my supplementary question. I repeat that the House rejected the Government's White Paper on Government expenditure.

Mr. Short: As a matter of strict fact, it did not do so; it rejected the alternative put forward by the right hon. Lady the Leader of the Opposition. But the vote of confidence the next day was a vote of confidence in Government policies.

Mr. Canavan: Many of us deplore certain aspects of the Government's expenditure cuts, but will my right hon. Friend point out to the SNP the significance of a parliamentary Answer given to me recently by the Secretary of State for Scotland, that in education the percentage to be borne by Scotland will be much less than our percentage of the United Kingdom population? In view of this nonsense, does not the figure of 39 per cent. that is being bandied about by Members of the Scottish National Party indicate that either their arithmetic is of the same abysmal standard as their politics or else they are telling lies?

Mr. Short: I hope that my hon. Friend will do some more research and attack

all the silly figures put out by the SNP about Scotland at the present time.

Mrs. Bain: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that the figures put forward by the SNP in its analysis of the public expenditure cuts have been supported by a major teachers union in Scotland, and does he appreciate that SNP Members, along with the teachers, are totally opposed to public expenditure cuts in Scottish education?

Mr. Short: I have a little experience of teachers unions. I would not say that they were right just because they are teachers unions.

NORTHERN IRELAND

Mr. Neave (by Private Notice): asked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland whether he has any statement to make on the deaths of four British soldiers in County Armagh in the last 36 hours.

The Minister of State, Northern Ireland Office (Mr. Stanley Orme): Yesterday, three soldiers of the 1st Battalion, the Royal Scots were killed when a land mine exploded under their Land Rover. They were on a patrol near Belleek between Newry and Newtownhamilton to counter sectarian crimes in the area. A fourth soldier was injured. The occupants of a second Army vehicle were uninjured. In addition, on Tuesday a soldier of the 3rd Battalion the Royal Regiment of Fusiliers was killed when a booby-trap device exploded in an Orange Hall near Craigavon.
I know that the House will wish to join with me when I express my deepest sympathy to the relations of those soldiers. I am also sure that the vast majority of the people in Northern Ireland from both communities will be appalled by this atrocity. These soldiers were carrying out their duty to protect citizens of the United Kingdom and to preserve both communities in Northern Ireland. We mourn with their families.
The Provisional IRA has admitted responsibility for yesterday's cowardly atrocity. As my right hon. Friend made clear to the House last week, the Government will not be deterred from exercising their responsibilities in Northern Ireland and will keep the Army there as long as


necessary. We shall not succumb to such pressure.

Mr. Neave: I join with the Minister in his expression of sorrow at the deaths of these young soldiers. Should we not also pay tribute to the fine record of the 1st Battalion the Royal Scots in the past few weeks under Lt.-Col. Davies, especially as we hoped that there would be some improvement in the situation in South Armagh during that period? Is it correct to say that no fewer than 42 Regular soldiers have been killed in South Armagh since February 1971? What steps are the Government now taking to prevent the mining of roads in this area and to strengthen military intelligence to prevent terrorism?

Mr. Orme: I join the hon. Gentleman in his tribute to the Royal Scots for the work they have carried out in the area. It is true that that number of soldiers have been killed in the period to which the hon. Gentleman referred. I must point out that the security forces have achieved considerable successes. It is the Army's job to apprehend and bring to trial people who carry out acts of violence. The Army will not stop at any measure and the Government will not deter it in its endeavours to that end.
A number of cases involving the mining of roads have occurred recently, and the security forces are aware of the situation. Indeed, helicopter patrols are used in trying to detect this type of mining. It must be said that yesterday's incident, which led to the death of three soldiers, could easily have involved three or four civilians travelling along that road, irrespective of their religion or the community from which they came.

Mr. McCusker: Will the Minister of State accept that my colleagues and I wish to be associated with the expressions of sympathy to the relatives of the deceased men? Will he also note that we wish to record our admiration and gratitude to all the members of the security forces in Northern Ireland, particularly to the Royal Scots, for the difficult and dangerous job they have undertaken in South Armagh in the past three months? Is the Minister aware that this incident underlines the fallacy of believing that the war in my constituency can

be won overnight? Therefore, will he insist that the Government should press ahead with the measures announced by the Prime Minister in January, including, if necessary, reinforcement of the SAS?

Mr. Orme: I note the hon. Gentleman's expressions of sympathy. The endeavours of the Army will continue. Members of the Army are present in the area in sufficient force at the present time and are taking every step to apprehend the people who are responsible.

Mr. Dalyell: Does my hon. Friend appreciate that the Under-Secretary of State for Energy, my hon. Friend the Member for Midlothian (Mr. Eadie), and I wish to express our condolences to relatives who are our constituents?

Mr. Orme: I thank my hon. Friend for what he has said, and I appreciate his feelings and those of my hon. Friend the Under-Secretary of State for Energy. I am sure that the House will take note of that.

Several Hon. Members: rose——

Mr. Speaker: I am afraid that we must now leave that topic. We must now take the Business Statement.

BUSINESS OF THE HOUSE

Mrs. Thatcher: Will the Leader of the House please state the business of the House up to the Easter Recess?

The Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons (Mr. Edward Short): Yes, Sir. The business will be as follows:
MONDAY 5TH APRIL—Supply [16th Allotted Day]. There will be a debate on the fishing industry, on a motion for the Adjournment.
Resumed debate on EEC Documents R/3113/73 and R/1150/75 on lead pollution.
TUESDAY 6TH APRIL —My right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer will open his Budget Statement.
EEC Documents R/622 and 606 on policy guidelines for 1976 will be relevant.
At 7 o'clock, the Chairman of Ways and Means has named opposed private business for consideration.

Motion relating to pension schemes and regulations.

WEDNESDAY 7TH APRIL and THURSDAY 8TH APRIL—Continuation of the Budget debate.

At the end on Wednesday, motion relating to the Medicines (Fees) Regulations.

FRIDAY 9TH APRIL—Private Members' motions.

MONDAY 12TH APRIL—Conclusion of Budget debate.

Debate on EEC Documents R/451/76 and R/ 452 /76 on proteins.

TUESDAY 13TH APRIL—Supply [17th Allotted Day]: Debate on the Eleventh Report from the Expenditure Committee in Session 1974–75 on the Children and Young Persons Act 1969, House of Commons Paper No. 534, and any Special Report thereon.

WEDNESDAY 14TH APRIL—Subject to progress of business, it will be proposed that the House should meet at 11 a.m., take Questions until 12 noon and adjourn at 5 p.m. until Monday 26th April.

Mrs. Thatcher: May I ask the Leader of the House about the possibility of two statements? If the serious situation at British Leyland persists, may we have a statement tomorrow from the Secretary of State for Employment before things get worse next week? May we also have a statement on Monday on the results of the meeting of the European Council of Ministers?

Mr. Short: I will convey what the right hon. Lady has said about British Leyland to my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Employment. On her second question, I will see that a statement is made next week.

Mr. Jay: Will my right hon. Friend confirm that the debate on the EEC document on proteins—which means skimmed milk—will take place on the basis of the motions on the Order Paper, including the Opposition amendment, which the Government have said they will accept?

Mr. Short: It might be better to try to find an agreed motion which will take in the amendment as well.

Mr. Pym: We are grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for arranging the debate on the two documents on Monday. Will he persuade the Minister of Agriculture to make a statement early next week about the confusion that has arisen over the disposal of skimmed milk powder? Since 15th March compounders have been required to make deposits on protein, and they have done so, but they are unable to redeem them because there is no skimmed milk powder for them to use. Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that no compounders have been licensed yet to denature skimmed milk powder and, as far as I am aware, no inspectors have been appointed? It would be helpful to have a statement from the Minister of Agriculture on Monday or Tuesday.

Mr. Short: I shall tell my right hon. Friend what the right hon. Gentleman has said. The major confusion in the matter was created initially by the right hon. Gentleman. I made the position clear in the House but the right hon. Gentleman did not retract what he said on the BBC. I wish he had done so. That would have cleared up most of the confusion.

Mrs. Renée Short: We welcome the opportunity of a debate on the Expenditure Committee's Report on the Children and Young Persons Act. Is there likely to be a ministerial reply before the debate? My right hon. Friend wrote to me on 11th March and said that the reply would be presented to Ministers shortly and that it was hoped that it would be published in a few days' time. Will it not be difficult to debate this matter unless we know the attitude of the Ministers involved?

Mr. Edward Short: I agree with my hon. Friend, and I shall do my best to see that the reply is made available, but I cannot guarantee it. The subject for debate was selected by the Expenditure Committee.

Mr. Powell: On what day does the Leader of the House expect to move the motion for the Adjournment for the recess?

Mr. Short: I hope to do that on Tuesday week.

Mr. Kilroy-Silk: Will my right hon. Friend consider examining the frequency


with which various Departments come up for Questions? It is anomalous that Wales should come up every three weeks whereas Industry and Employment come up every four or five weeks. Does my right hon. Friend remember that on Monday of this week there were only 12 Welsh Questions on the Order Paper?

Mr. Short: We are constantly looking at the matter and trying to improve the position. If my hon. Friend or any other hon. Members wish to make representations about Questions, I shall look at them.

Mr. Baker: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that the unemployment rate in certain parts of London is higher than in Clydeside, Tyneside or Teesside? As the recession has hit certain parts of London more seriously than other parts of the country, is it not time for a debate on the Floor of the House on the capital city?

Mr. Short: There is no time for such a debate in the House in the next two weeks. I offered a debate next week in the Regional Committee to allow all hon. Members from London to take part. I understand that they have decided that they do not want that. But I shall try to find time for a London debate in the House before the Summer Recess.

Mr. Cledwyn Hughes: May I point out to my right hon. Friend that whilst other Departments are as important as Wales none is more important?

Sir Frederic Bennett: The right hon. Gentleman will not need reminding about the new, appalling fall in the value of sterling, which has now gone below $1·9 for the first time. Does that not emphasise the need for a statement to be made at the earliest possible opportunity and for the Chancellor of the Exchequer not to wait for the weekend to make it? An early statement might arrest the fall, which could get worse over the weekend if nothing is said.

Mr. Short: I am sure my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer will take that view into account.

Mr. Faulds: Is it not time for a debate on the problems of Southern Rhodesia, which is ultimately a British responsibility?

Mr. Short: I was asked about that last week. I agree on its importance. The Government will keep the House informed. If the need and opportunity for a debate arise, I shall arrange one.

Mr. Eyre: On 22nd March the Secretary of State for Industry promised that he would soon make a statement on the problems of unemployment and the future of industry and commerce in the West Midlands. Can the Leader of the House confirm that a statement will be made next week?

Mr. Short: I shall have to inquire about that. There is to be an Adjournment debate next week on the West Midlands, although I know that that is a limited opportunity.

Mr. Canavan: If there is any ministerial statement next week, will the Leader of the House arrange for advance copies of it to be given to all Back Benchers? Some of us are getting fed up with seeing some hon. Members, even in minority factions, reading advance copies while we have to wait for the words of wisdom to drop from the Minister's mouth.

Mr. Short: It has always been the custom that the Opposition Front Bench receives a copy of any statement a few minutes before it is made. The wider question was raised some time ago, and it is something which the Procedure Committee can examine.

Mr. Charles Morrison: What contingency plans are there for the business next Tuesday? The new Prime Minister, of course, will not see the contents of the Budget until Monday. He may not like it. He may not like the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and he may even not like the Leader of the House.

Mr. Short: I assure the hon. Gentleman that we have taken all those contingencies into account.

Mr. Les Huckfield: Will my right hon. Friend say when the Secretary of State for the Environment intends to introduce his consultative document on transport policy?

Mr. Short: I cannot give my hon. Friend a date, but it will be very, very shortly.

Mr. Hal Miller: Does the Leader of the House recall the Prime Minister's commitment to the House on 21st April last year, in his statement on the Ryder Report on British Leyland, that the company's operating programmes and its progress would be submitted to the House with the comments of the National Enterprise Board, so that the House could take a decision on the matter before the next tranche of money was given to the company? Can the right hon. Gentleman make arrangements for that to be done before the recess?

Mr. Short: I cannot do that. It will be made in due course and will cover the first few months of the operation of the Board.

Mr. Skinner: Is my right hon. Friend prepared to consider the possibility of a statement about the unfortunate position of Alan Grimshaw, sacked by the National Coal Board arising out of his evidence to the Select Committee on Nationalised Industries? Especially as two Select Committees seem to be at variance on the matter, is there not a need for a wide-ranging public inquiry into the whole buying practice of the Board, extending particularly over that period when Lord Robens was at its head?

Mr. Short: No, Sir. I do not agree. The House will recall that on my motion Mr. Grimshaw's case was referred to the Select Committee on Privileges.

Mr. Skinner: The Committees are at variance.

Mr. Short: They are not. There is no conflict between the two. The earlier Select Committee recommended that the matter should be considered by the Select Committee on Privileges. It has been considered by that Committee, which has made its Report to the House. There is nothing more I can do about the matter.

Mrs. Bain: Will the right hon. Gentleman say whether copies of the dummy devolution Bill will be available to hon. Members before the Easter Recess, in view of his earlier promises that we should have an early debate on devolution after the recess?

Mr. Short: A dummy Bill will not be laid—I say "Bill" again, but let me repeat that we have not decided on the other issues—before the Easter Recess, but I hope that it will not be too long delayed.

Mr. Pavitt: My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Services had expected that the Bill to phase out pay beds would have its Second Reading before Easter, but that has not proved possible. Will the Bill be published before Easter? Will my right hon. Friend confirm that any arrangement made by Lord Goodman is subject to whatever we in this House decide on that Bill?

Mr. Short: I do not think I need give the assurance for which my hon. Friend asked in his second question. The Bill will be introduced before Easter, but it will not have its Second Reading before Easter.

Mr. Madel: Does the right hon. Gentleman recall that after the referendum campaign just over a year ago he said that he hoped that this year of parliamentary work would be a lighter Session? How can the Government get all the proposed legislation through and start the Summer Recess at a reasonable date, as they promised last year in view of the help we gave them on the Referendum Bill and campaign?

Mr. Short: I am sure that if I have the hon. Gentleman's good will and that of all his colleagues and my colleagues we shall rise at a reasonable date for the Summer Recess.

Mr. Frank Allaun: When will the report of the inquiry into the supply by Aviation (Jersey) Limited of Centurion parts to the South African Government be published? There is clearly something very fishy in this business. Will it not heighten suspicion if the report is not issued, or if it is issued during the recess when we cannot debate it in the House?

Mr. Short: That is a question which my hon. Friend must address to my right hon. Friend.

Mr. Geoffrey Finsberg: On what day before Easter will the right hon. Gentleman announce the setting up of the sessional Select Committee on Procedure,


bearing in mind that a few replies earlier he said that a matter should go to that Committee, which does not yet exist?

Mr. Short: We have collected three items, not very substantial, to go to a sessional Select Committee. I hope to set it up at the same time as the Select Committee on the reform of Parliament, in the very near future—I hope this week. But many hon. Members, almost all, are heavily involved in Committees. [An HON. MEMBER: "Too many."] Not as many as in 1972. But I hope that the work will be lighter after the Easter Recess.

Mr. Terry Walker: Will my right hon. Friend give some consideration to a debate on the future of the Concorde aircraft, as discussions have taken place between our Government and the French Government and there are rumours that we are trying to draw another foreign Power into the deal? May that be considered as a matter of urgency?

Mr. Short: I cannot offer any time for a debate on Concorde. My hon. Friend will have seen the statement issued by my hon. Friend the Minister of State, Department of Industry after his recent discussions. I have nothing to add to that. In view of the pressure to rise at a reasonable date in the summer, I can offer no time for a debate on a subject of this kind.

Mr. Cope: Will the right hon. Gentleman or his successor arrange a debate on the Steering Committee on Marine Pilotage, which does not have the unanimous support of all the bodies responsible for setting it up?

Mr. Short: Not next week.

Mr. English: Will my right hon. Friend correct an ambiguity in his reply to my hon. Friend the Member for Wolverhampton, North-East (Mrs. Short)? The Expenditure Committee chose the subject for the debate on Tuesday week, but not the date. Does my right hon. Friend agree that the debate should be on a motion by the Committee to approve its Report, rather than on a weak, one-line-Whip "take note" motion? It is probably my omission, but I do not recall my right hon. Friend stating the date of the debate on the motion that the House should adjourn a week on Wednesday.

Mr. Short: There is a great deal to be said for a weak, one-line-Whip type of debate in the week in question.

Mr. English: On a Tuesday?

Mr. Short: The week before Easter, yes. I replied to the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell) on the question of the debate on the motion that the House should adjourn for the Easter Recess. I said that it would be on the Tuesday.

Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles: Does the right hon. Gentleman's reply to my hon. Friend the Member for Devizes (Mr. Morrison) mean that both right hon. Gentlemen who are still in the ballot for the premiership have seen the Chancellor of the Exchequer's Budget Statement and have both approved it?

Mr. Short: There is complete unanimity in the Government on everything.

Mr. Spearing: Does my right hon. Friend recall that, in rejecting the recommendation of the previous Select Committee on the procedure for dealing with EEC documents on 3rd November last, the Government spokesman agreed that in the near future the Government would lay another amendment which would give effect to the wishes of the House? Does my right hon. Friend agree that that amendment has not been laid? As there is concern throughout the House on the subject of how we handle this vital matter, why have we had to wait five months?

Mr. Short: I do not think that there is great concern throughout the House about the matter. I think that there is great appreciation throughout the House that in the past two years we have built up from scratch the machinery that we now have. When this Government came into office there was no machinery for scrutinising documents from the EEC. The outstanding point concerns something which is very difficult and costly. I am having research done on the matter, and I hope to make an announcement about it very shortly.

Mr. Tim Renton: In view of the Lord President's witty remark that there is complete unanimity in his Government, will he ask the new Prime Minister to


make a statement to the House at the earliest opportunity, first, on whether import controls are or are not the policy of the Government and, secondly, on whether he will dismiss Cabinet Ministers who publicly dissent from Government policy?

Mr. Short: I think that the hon. Gentleman or another hon. Member has a Question on the Order Paper on that matter, and the answer will appear in Hansard.

Mr. Hooley: May I press my right hon. Friend on the importance of a considered reply to the very important Report on the Children and Young Persons Act, which we are to debate a week on Tuesday? Is it not somewhat discourteous to the House that we should have the debate in the absence of any considered statement by the Minister concerned?

Mr. Short: I agree with my hon. Friend the Member for Wolverhampton, North-East (Mrs. Short) that it would be a much more useful debate if we had the Government's reply. I shall do my best to see that we have it before the debate. I think that the House should have it before then.

Mr. Michael Latham: Can the Secretary of State for the Environment make a statement next week on what the Government will do to restore the improvement grant programme, which has collapsed and is now running at under half the level it achieved under the Conservative Government?

Mr. Short: Without accepting the premise on which the hon. Gentleman's question is based, I advise him to put it to my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment.

Mr. Russell Kerr: Accepting my right hon. Friend's reluctance to have a debate at present on the Concorde situation, may I ask him nevertheless to take into account the fact that a number of redundancies are threatened in the aircraft industry and that it is most important that we have an early debate on civil aviation?

Mr. Short: I shall bear in mind what my hon. Friend has said. We have a number of subjects lined up for general debates. We shall have to see how much time we have. I have already said this afternoon that it is very important that we should try to rise at a reasonable date for the Summer Recess.

Orders of the Day — DEFENCE

Order read for resuming adjourned debate on amendment to Question [31st March]:
That this House, recognising the need to provide adequately for the nation's security, welcomes the Statement on the Defence Estimates 1976 (Command Paper No. 6432): and, being aware of the economic factors which have led to cuts in all sectors of public spending, notes with approval that the defence cuts envisaged will fall on support services rather than on front-line forces, thereby maintaining the British contribution to NATO, the security and territorial integrity of the United Kingdom and peace in Northern Ireland.—[Mr. Mason.]

Amendment proposed, to leave out from "House" to the end of the Question and to add instead thereof:
'recognising that the previous year's defence cuts reduced the defences of the United Kingdom to "absolute bedrock" and being aware of the continued growth of Soviet military strength and of the increasingly unfavourable military balance between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, condemns the Government's proposals to reduce the United Kingdom's defences for the third time in a year '.—[Mr. Ian Gilmour.]

Question again proposed, That the amendment be made.

Mr. Frank Allaun: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. You will remember that yesterday you promised to give consideration to the complaint that an amendment tabled by nearly 100 hon. Members would not be voted on during this debate. You said that the odds were a million to one against my request being granted. I am now asking you whether the odds have shortened a little in my favour.
Do you think it fair, Mr. Speaker, that nearly half of the majority party in the House, at variance with both Front Benches, should be denied having their deeply-held views placed before the House and voted on?

Mr. Speaker: I regret to say that the odds have not shortened. I have given further consideration to the hon. Gentleman's request. I must obey the rules of order. As for the hon. Gentleman's second point, it is not for me to enter into discussion on the fairness or otherwise

of the calling of amendments. I abide by the rules of the House. They are my protection. They are also the protection of the House itself.
There are 40 right hon. and hon. Members who have indicated their wish to catch my eye during this debate. Clearly, a large number will be disappointed, because it will be impossible to get them all into the debate. I must tell the House that long speeches yesterday prevented at least five hon. Members from being called. Between them, five right hon and hon. Members took over 100 minutes of Back-Bench time. Those who are called to speak today should remember their colleagues who also have a point of view which they wish to present.
Finally, like my predecessors, I request hon. Members not to come to the Chair to press their claims or to find out when they are likely to be called. I am trying to be scrupulously fair in the selection of Members to speak, bearing in mind, among other things, those who have not spoken for some time solely because they have failed to catch my eye in preceding debates.

Mr. Raphael Tuck: Further to that point of order and your reply to my hon. Friend the Member for Salford. East (Mr. Allaun), Mr. Speaker. We understand the dilemma in which you find yourself, but I wonder whether you can understand the dilemma in which we find ourselves. If it is impossible to call the amendment in question, is there no other way in which we can effectively make our point?

Mr. Speaker: Order. I have to abide by the rules of the House. I will ensure as far as lies within my power that every point of view is fairly heard within the debate, but I can do no more.

4.02 p.m.

The Under-Secretary of State for Defence for the Royal Air Force (Mr. Brynmor John): The Private Notice Question which has just been before the House provides a sombre background to today's debate. The deaths of three Royal Scots in South Armagh, following the death of one soldier in Craigavon earlier this week, bring home to all of us what defence really means and what serving one's country means at a time when there is trouble in part of the United Kingdom. It also illustrates to us the sacrifices which


the Army and its personnel are making in bringing peace and order to Northern Ireland. All who are about to take part in the defence debate would wish to add, following what my right hon. Friend the Minister of State, Northern Ireland Office has said, our sympathy to the bereaved relatives.
By the publication of last year's defence review in detailed form and by the equally comprehensive Defence Estimates this year, I believe that my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State has done a great deal to stimulate the debate on the subject of defence which has been carried on in the country since our accession to office. A subject which had, by comparison at any rate, been curiously neglected, a subject involving larger public expenditure, has at last received the attention it deserves both inside and outside the House.
I had intended to start my comments by referring to the way in which the attitude of the Opposition towards defence expenditure had changed in the last year. However, my time scale was too long. It now seems to change, if last night's debate was anything to go by, from day to day. As hon. Members will remember, the Opposition divided the House last year not only on the defence review, but on the single Service Estimates, presumably on the ground that the cuts had gone too far. I say "presumably" because even then the Opposition were a lot stronger on sentiment than on specifics. I forecast to the House then that whatever synthetic indignation they displayed they would, if ever we were unlucky enough to have a Tory Government again, not seek to reverse those cuts.
It appeared to me that my words were amply borne out even in advance of that unlucky event when the right hon. Lady the Member for Finchley (Mrs. Thatcher) seemed to accept, on behalf of herself and her right hon. Friend the Member for Chesham and Amersham (Mr. Gilmour), the defence review but to object to any further cuts. But the reactions of the hon. Gentlemen on the Front Bench seems to have put that into question. It is important that the country should have clear what Conservative defence policy is, even though it may change from day to day. Let me set out my evidence for believing there had been a change.
On 23rd February 1976 the right hon. Lady appeared on a "Panorama" programme and was interviewed by Mr. Robin Day. That programme was seen by many people. During the course of it she was asked about defence and defence expenditure. It was put to her that my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister had said that since she and her party did not approve of the planned reduction in defence expenditure, that would mean that she would be adding that amount back to Budget expenditure. She denied this and said that what she had said was that we could not take the extra £110 million pounds over and above the defence review proposals. She went on to say that the Conservative Party would not want further cuts beyond those already announced in defence expenditure. You will recollect, Mr. Speaker, that the defence review measures had by that time been made known almost a year before.

Mr. Cranley Onslow: Mr. Cranley Onslow (Woking) rose——

Mr. John: If I may finish, I will certainly give way to the hon. Gentleman.

Mr. Speaker: Order. The hon. Member who has the floor decides if he is giving way and when.

Mr. John: I do not deny that the hon. Gentleman is right to intervene. I question the timing. If he will wait and show a little more of his accustomed patience, he will perhaps be satisfied on this point.
Mr. Day then put to the right hon. Lady that it would be wrong for my right hon. Friend to say that if she came to power in the immediate future she would cancel the projected cuts over the next nine or 10 years. She said—with what authority I do not know—that the right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham had already made that clear, but that what the right hon. Lady did not like was the extra £110 million or the further cuts—that is, the expenditure review.
I must ask the hon. Member for Woking (Mr. Onslow)—perhaps this is his cue to intervene in a sentence or two—whether that is what the right hon. Lady says and whether it represents Conservative Party policy, or whether she is still arguing about the defence review. Would the Conservatives restore the reductions in public expenditure reductions, or is what


we are arguing about the more limited cuts of today? I believe that the country has a right to know on this very important point.

Mr. Onslow: After that rather ponderous construction on the flimsiest of foundations, the hon. Gentleman will understand the situation better if I put it to him that the interview from which he does not—and so carefully does not—quote verbatim took place in conditions different from those which he has just sought to reconstruct and much more like those at the time I sought to interrupt him. If he believes that in those conditions statements which suit his point of view can be made and twisted to bear the meaning he now seeks to put on them, I shall gladly provide him with the text of what my right hon. Friend said, as reported in The Times, which corresponds precisely with what my right hon. Friend said. Can we now get on with something more important?

Mr. John: I realise that the hon. Gentleman wishes not only to assist all Members of the House but to determine what is and what is not important in this debate. But the people of the country have to listen to the words of the right hon. Lady and to make a judgment upon those words. If the hon. Gentleman is saying that what the right hon. Lady said in the "Panorama" programme on 23rd February last, an extract from the transcript of which I have before me, is not and never has been Conservative Party policy, I shall accept it, but that calls into question what was said on that occasion.

Mr. Onslow: Mr. Onslow rose——

Mr. Speaker: Order. The Minister is not giving way. He has the Floor.

Mr. John: The hon. Gentleman will be able to address the House, and I shall listen to him with as much patience and as few interruptions as he would me.

Mr. Onslow: Mr. Onslow rose——

Mr. John: No, I will not give way. I think that disposes of the matter.

Mr. Onslow: Mr. Onslow rose——

Mr. Speaker: Order. We are getting rather disorderly. This time will only

serve to cut out another hon. Member's speech. If the Minister——

Mr. Onslow: Mr. Onslow rose——

Mr. Speaker: Order. The Minister is not giving way. The hon. Gentleman knows the rules well enough.

Mr. Onslow: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. I think it will be within your recollection that the Minister asked a highly provocative and poorly-based question, which he now seeks to ride away from. The hon. Gentleman has carefully quoted something not verbatim. He now seeks to invite me to waste time in my speech on a matter about which I have already informed him.

Mr. Speaker: Order. That is not a point of order. No one knows that better than the hon. Gentleman.

Mr. John: As the hon. Gentleman is to make a speech after me—if he ever stops interjecting for long enough—he will have an opportunity to answer that question. As for the hon. Gentleman saying that clarification of the Conservative Party's defence policy is a waste of the time of the House, I think that he shows scant knowledge of this country's priorities.
As I said, that was the position last year, and the Opposition have declared their intention of dividing the House again. The country should be told that this is no more than the same stage-dressing as they indulged in last year.
The reason for this change of front is quite clear. When I suggested last year that part of a country's will and ability to defend itself was dependent upon the social and economic health of that country, as well as its military hardware, I evoked responses from Opposition hon. Members which ranged from hostility to near hysteria in the case of the hon. Member for Staffordshire, South-West (Mr. Cormack), who unfortunately is not present at the moment. That proposition is now tacitly accepted by the Conservative Front Bench, as it was and would be in practice when they formed the Government. That is openly accepted by the Conservative Bow Group in its pamphlet "A Chancellor's Primer" when it says:
In the long run military security depends upon the possession of a sound economic base and that should be the prime consideration.


I think that we should regard the principle of the interdependence of social and economic health and defence as settled and direct ourselves in this debate to how the details have been worked out by the Government and how they have dealt with the areas of concern. I believe that it is necessary to steer a course between underestimating the need for defence, with its stated belief that we could go further in defence cuts, and over-estimation of that need.
Those who have called for further defence cuts have been fairly prominent in the debate both last year and this year. Yet I cannot conceal a feeling of disappointment at my hon. Friend's contribution. To deny that one is a pacifist or a tool of the Kremlin, which I readily accept, and to couple it with arithmetical arguments for cuts is not a complete defence policy. We need to be told where and how the cuts would be made.
We have had this in part by the singling out of the MRCA and the ASW cruisers. In this the Bow Group and the Tribune Group have been in coalition, if my hon. Friends will forgive the expression. But no one can possibly argue that cuts of this magnitude and in such central equipments can be made while leaving the structure and aims of the Forces untouched. What we need to know now, given the amounts which would be lopped off by the coalition, is what Forces we would be left with and how our defence would be organised. The answers to these questions are of crucial importance, and until they are received we are bound to remain disappointed.
I would say to my hon. Friends—indeed, to all hon. Members—that we are at one with them in viewing détente as a desirable object. I believe that this Government have worked hard for it. We trust that it will succeed, but in the meantime we would be foolish to ignore the military developments in the Warsaw Pact.
I must counsel against the wave of comment which seems to delight in taking a deliberately black view of the defence scene. Often the military balance is distorted, or sometimes old facts are trotted out as new developments. In most cases those who do so do it because of a genuine concern for our safety, but

in my view it is dangerous to overemphasise, for two reasons.
First, it may provoke the reaction that, if the balance is so adverse and the situation is so gloomy, there is no point in trying to defend. Secondly, it may discourage the country when, 30 years after the close of the Second World War and nearly 20 years after the Suez tragedy, the wonder is not how little we spend on defence but how much and how essential our people regard defence to be. There has never been a comparable period in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries when, in peace, spending has been kept to such a comparatively high level and defence spending has not slumped immediately on the cessation of hostilities.
However, I cannot be as charitable to some of the merchants of doom who have participated in the public debate. A tendency has recently grown up to regard the West as irredeemable. It has sprung up in the wake of the recent comments of Alexander Solzhenitsyn. Whilst placing on record our admiration for that man's courage, I must emphatically record that I agree neither with his social analysis nor with the defence conclusions which flow from it. If that is so, I must take even stronger exception to the utterances of the motley school of columnists, editors and peers which has sprung up in this country dedicated to propagating his pessimism. They exhibit a sort of Solzhenitsyn syndrome in which all is worst in the worst of all possible worlds.
The reasons for my views I have given earlier, but I wish also to query the methods used by them. For example, on Monday 13 th March 1976, on the front page of The Times, we read an article by a "Special correspondent". One wonders, first, who he was and why Henry Stanhope, the very reputable defence correspondent of that paper, was not involved. Its first two paragraphs read:
Defence officials in Washington are expressing concern at the conclusions of a NATO study on the feasibility of a surprise attack on Western Europe. A report, prepared by a senior officer of NATO's armed forces and now circulating within the alliance, reaches the startling conclusion that the Warsaw Pact is capable of delivering a successful attack on Western Europe using only conventional forces and that the surprise and speed of the operation would make it impossible to use the tactical nuclear weapons which are an


integral part of NATO's 'flexible response strategy.
The noble Lord Chalfont, in an article on an inside page, takes up the same theme. The right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham chose, prematurely I believe, to associate himself with this broadside, as did the ritual Early-Day Motion from a number of Conservative Members.
Two points from the article are undeniable. The first is that the author, or authors, of the two contributions in The Times implied that it was an official NATO study and that it was a contemporaneous study. On 25th March, in a much smaller piece in The Times, the truth was revealed. It was the work of a Belgian general for a doctorate at Brussels University, not a NATO study at all. Secondly, it was written six years ago describing the position in NATO four to six years before that.
This must have discomposed even the most hawkish anti-Russians, but not the noble Lord. He had the freedom of The Times columns on 29th March to reply but again described it as a NATO report. It is not and never has been a NATO report and, since he has obviously seen the paper, he must know that it is not. His piece is dressed up as an attack on complacency. It has the opposite effect, and he is too experienced and expensive a journalist not to know the effect which the use of tenses and titles would have.
In my view the noble Lord does a great disservice to NATO in undervaluing the strength of that organisation and its care in calculating the likelihood of surprise attack. He does an equal disservice to international relations, because the Government's assessment contained in paragraph 25 of Chapter I of the White Paper as to both the evidence of intention and the likelihood of success of any such attack is a responsible and considered verdict, very like the judgments which the Conservative Party put forward when in Government.
I have argued that there must be a wide measure of agreement that defence has to be sensitive to the wider needs of the economy, but equally within defence we must be zealous in ensuring that reductions which are necessary are made without

damage to the front line. On the expenditure review this is what we have done, and the cuts, where they occur, have been in the support area rather than in the front line. There is no inconsistency in that course and saying that a first-class support organisation is vital for the efficiency of the front line. As right hon. and hon. Members who have taken part in these defence debates over the years know, there is no such thing as a perfect solution in this field. The teeth-to-tail ratio is an enduring subject of consideration and debate.
Its relationship is governed by two factors. The first is the volume of work to be undertaken. In the RAF, for example, the cutting of the Transport Force and the other measures of the defence review diminished the aircraft repair and servicing task in the RAF by some 35 per cent.
Secondly, in order to get maximum economy we must use existing capital facilities as intensively as possible so as to get the best use out of them. This is why, regretfully, in all three Services our search for economies has led to our announcing closures of stations, depots and workshops, or announcing our proposals to do so. Let none of my hon. Friends imagine that these closures are painless or "phoney". They are painful and extremely regrettable, Nevertheless I think it is right that this course be taken. In the current climate we could only keep open all our existing stations by under-utilisation of each, and this would be to the detriment of our frontline effort.
Where one Service has no need for a station, however, it is also right that other Services have the opportunity to take it over. That is why I am so glad that of the 12 stations closed by the defence review so many were taken over by the other Services, avoiding the need for them to engage in massive capital expenditure to improve their facilities.
My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State referred yesterday to the decision to press ahead with production of the MRCA. He emphasised that this aircraft is vital for the future not only of the RAF if it is to remain a modern, well-equipped force but also of the British aerospace industry. I think that these points bear repetition.
It is not enough to say "The MRCA is too expensive and should be abandoned", because other questions then arise. Do we also give up any attempt to defend our skies against hostile intruders? Do we forgo the capability of striking back if necessary? Or do we shop around for an aircraft, or a number of different aircraft; do we buy "off the peg" at the expense of hundreds of millions of pounds in foreign exchange and the loss of thousands of jobs?
Most of the controversy has attached to the air defence variant of the MRCA. It is our firm belief, arrived at after a great deal of study and consideration, that the air defence variant will meet our requirements to counter the threat and that it will do so more economically than any other aircraft. A brief look at the alternatives proves the point. The F14 is more expensive and would rely on the very costly Phoenix missile system for its effectiveness. The F15 is at least as costly as the ADV and, as a single-seater aircraft, less effective, we believe, in the interception of enemy aircraft around the United Kingdom and over the Eastern Atlantic.
The Fl6 is, of course, cheaper, but it is wholly unsuitable for taking over the air defence tasks we would require it to meet. The Phantom is a good aircraft but it is by now getting elderly and in the period in which we wish a replacement it would be getting very elderly indeed. We do not have enough of them and no more aircraft are being produced by the factory. Nor does the Phantom have the same capability in radar, avionics or field performance as the MRCA.
Finally—here I come back to a point emphasised by my right hon. Friend—if the MRCA were to be abandoned we should also be throwing away 30,000 jobs and destroying a large part of the British aerospace industry.
The hon. and gallant Member for Eye (Sir H. Harrison) asked yesterday to be reassured about the air-to-air capability of the ADV. I am pleased to be able to give him such a reassurance. The weapons system will include an advanced long-range air intercept radar together with both medium-and short-range air-to-air missiles and a gun.
A spin-off over the merits of the MRCA has widened into a debate over the air defence of the United Kingdom. We defend ourselves here as elsewhere as part of an alliance. It was in recognition of this fact that we deployed the great bulk of our resources within the NATO area.
A previous Conservative Administration in the 1950s decided that the days of manned interceptor aircraft were drawing to a close and, therefore, the number of air defence squadrons was run down to the point where they almost disappeared. Subsequent Governments realised that the flexibility of the manned interceptor was irreplaceable, but nevertheless air defence remained a low priority until this Government have undertaken the task, slowly admittedly, of improving the capability. We have now completed the transfer of the Phantoms to the air defence rôle, which greatly improves our capability in that the Phantoms have better radar, a much greater weapons load and longer range and endurance. And, with the future of the air defence variant of the MRCA assured, we can look forward to a continued strengthening of the sharp end of air defence.
In addition, with the deployment of Bloodhound missiles and Rapiers at locations along the East Coast and the provision of new radars which have tracking and data-handling equipment, we are providing a very significantly improved capability for air defence. I believe that this will be supplemented when the decision on airborne early warning aircraft is taken.
I have read in today's New Scientist an article to the effect that the Soviet Foxbat aircraft make regular overflights of this country. I made it clear in answer to a Question on Monday that we are satisfied that there have been no such intrusions in the last 12 months, and I am quite confident that any such intrusions would have been identified by our air defence system. As an example of the inaccuracy of that article, I must refute absolutely the statement that two RAF aircraft were shot down whilst engaged on spying missions over the Soviet Union in the 1960s.
Another of the subjects which have generated much interest, which was


referred to by the hon. and gallant Member for Eye and the hon. Member for Inverness (Mr. Johnston) yesterday, is the question of standardisation. As the hon. and gallant Member for Eye says, this is a matter which everybody agrees to in principle, and everybody believes that the penalty imposed by operating a multiplicity of different equipments is severe and that the better value for money we can get by standardisation is desirable.
My right hon. Friend, as the hon. and gallant Member recognised, played a very energetic part in his year as Chairman of Eurogroup in pursuing this aim. But I warn hon. Members who may be contributing on this basis to the debate today that there are severe difficulties to be overcome. The unconscious tendency is to think that standardisation will always be on the basis of one's own equipment. Therefore, when equipment is chosen which does not favour national industry, there are squeals about that particular choice.
Let us be clear that the way ahead is difficult and there will come in the near future one of those conflicts which will cause such a problem. I think it would be fair to the House if I quoted the sort of divergent advice which my right hon. Friend is getting on the subject of the AWACS which has a possible AEW capability. This is from two articles in The Times of 12th and 26th February. The first, on the 12th, reads:
If Roy Mason decides to crown his year as chairman of Eurogroup by ordering AWACS for Nato in the cause of 'standardisation', he will have done more damage to our defence industries than the Luftwaffe ever achieved.
The second one, on the 26th, reads:
The Labour Government may be tempted to flirt with an AEW Nimrod. But, were Mr. Mason to ditch AWACS in favour of a British system—that exists on paper only—the consequences for the Alliance would be most serious.
Both those writers, who give directly opposite views, are Members of this House. The first is the hon. Member for Chertsey and Walton (Mr. Pattie) and the second is the hon. Member for Alder-shot (Mr. Critchley), and both are members of the Conservative Party.
The studies on this subject will be complete and the decision taken on this equipment later this year. But this simply

underlines the difficulty which my right hon. Friend will have in pleasing everyone, especially every Tory, on this subject.

Mr. Geoffrey Pattie: The hon. Gentleman has just referred to me as being the author of the first article, which indeed I am. Does he not agree that it is quite healthy to have debates in public on matters of defence equipment procurement? What is more, as the hon. Gentleman has just referred to AWACS, does he think that an aircraft costing £30 million a time is a project that we can consider when we have a system of our own under development?

Mr. John: I agree that it is healthy to have a debate in public on defence. What I am not so clear about is why, when it is within the Conservative Party, it is a proper, gentlemanly difference of opinion but when it is in the Labour Party it is a matter for the utmost derision. It is a matter involving differences within and between the parties, and that is healthy. To answer the hon. Gentleman's second point, that is precisely the reason for the studies and for the decision to be taken later this year. When it comes, the hon. Gentleman will realise how much care has gone into the studies.
Yesterday, my hon. Friend the Under-Secretary of State for Defence for the Royal Navy referred to the interdependence of our forces and how co-operation between them had reached very high levels. I believe that interdependence rather than integration is the key to the development of our forces in the future.
It would be remiss of me if on this occasion I did not pay tribute, first, to the successful Belize operation, which must have reassured many people that we can mount a long-range operation at short notice should the need arise, and, secondly, to the demeanour and coolness of the Royal Navy in the very difficult situation which exists off Iceland. Speaking as Under-Secretary of State for Defence for the Royal Air Force, I know that my Service is proud to be associated with the Royal Navy in this episode and is full of admiration for the work that it does in the protection of our trawlers.

Mr. Geoffrey Finsberg: The hon. Gentleman referred to the successful operation in taking forces to


Belize. Does he still think that an operation of that sort would be possible with the reduced transport fleet proposed in the White Paper?

Mr. John: The proposed transport fleet was stated in the defence review and not necessarily in this White Paper. But, yes, I believe that it is possible.

Mr. Spencer Le Marchant: Can the hon. Gentleman say how long it would take to assemble helicopters, if we do not keep the big freighters, to get forces out to a place like Belize, which in that case took somethting under a day? If we did not keep our big freighters, we would not be able to do it in under three days.

Mr. John: We are retaining a very significant freighter capacity still in the transport force, and we are satisfied that we could meet this kind of challenge in the future.
I want now to say a word or two about morale and welfare in the Forces——

Mr. Frank Allaun: Will my hon. Friend give way?

Mr. John: No. In view of Mr. Speaker's injunction, I am anxious not to give way.

Mr. Deputy Speaker (Sir Myer Galpern): I am glad that the Minister has made that point. A large number of hon. Members wish to speak. If we have too many interventions in speeches, obviously a number of contributions will be cut out.

Mr. John: I was about to refer to recruitment. Last year was a very successful one for Service recruitment. I am the first to acknowledge that the economic climate played a part in recruiting, but we are very happy about the quality of the young people who are coming forward, and we believe that their quality will greatly enhance our capability in the future to keep up the high standards maintained by the present generation in the Armed Forces. When we are discussing adverse numerical balances between alliances, we must aim for the superior quality, motivation and training of our Service men to offset numbers.
We are determined wherever we can to add to the welfare improvements such

as the television service in Germany, improvements to the assisted house purchase scheme and extra leave which we have introduced. We are also determined to carry on with such worthwhile improvements as our tribute to those who make sacrifices on behalf of us all.
Despite all the injunctions from the Chair about the brevity of speeches, I realise that I have already transgressed on the patience and time of the House, and I am anxious to conclude my remarks as soon as possible. However, I feel that I ought perhaps to give way briefly to my hon. Friend the Member for Salford, East (Mr. Allaun).

Mr. Frank Allaun: I might point out to the Opposition that so far there has not been a single question to my hon. Friend from the Government Benches. Before my hon. Friend concludes on these interesting but detailed matters, will he give a straight answer to a straight question on the major issue? Will there be a further early review of arms spending aimed at bringing it down to the lower level of GNP of the other European NATO Governments?

Mr. John: My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State initiated the defence review for precisely that reason, and it is phased over the next decade to bring about that sort of alignment. As I have said already, there is always a balance between the military and the social and economic health of a country. Further than that, I am sure that my hon. Friend would not expect me to go.
These matters are always reviewed constantly, as are all economic matters, in the light of the economic health of the country. However, my hon. Friend must realise that we cannot assure our safety without cost. It is a very expensive business, but we believe it to be necessary for the country.
To sum up, the price of preparedness is the interference with people's lives in the process of training such as, for example, those affected by low flying. To those who serve us it means a mobile life, periods of separation and, in some cases, even the loss of their lives.
This Government are not and never will be complacent about defence. Its importance as a subject demands and ensures that. We must, however, beware the extremes and strike the right economic


and military balance in the conditions of the time. It is because the White Paper does that and gives Britain the chance of economic expansion while preserving her security that I commend it to the House.

4.37 p.m.

Mr. Cranley Onslow: I think that my task is quite simple. It is to be brief where the Minister was lengthy, to be brisk about it, and perhaps to be even blunter than he was.
The only part of the hon. Gentleman's speech which I endorse is what he said about the latest tragic incidents in Ulster. For the rest, his comments on Mr. Solzhenitsyn struck me as a tissue of trivialities, and his attempts to create a smoke screen round his own uncertainty about what my right hon. Friend said or did not say on the "Panorama" programme I shall treat with the contempt that they deserve, because there is no doubt about where the Conservative Party stands on defence—and stands united, which is more than I can say for Government supporters.
I come at once to the Labour Government's White Paper. Yesterday, the Secretary of State was very anxious to claim it as his own—indeed, to claim the debate as his own. He was in a very possessive mood, not to say a Napoleonic one, so much so that he prompted the thought in my mind that his term of command of our defence affairs had been most noted for what might be described as the retreat from Moscow.
This year, there was no claim on the right hon. Gentleman's part to support from the Chiefs of Staff, which was scarcely surprising in view of the deserved reprimand that he received from my right hon. Friend the Member for Penrith and The Border (Mr. Whitelaw) for his attempt to enlist the Chiefs of Staff in his own aid in his last defence White Paper. Nor, indeed, is it likely he would make such a claim now, in view of some of the comments which our most senior officers and civil servants in the defence field have been making about the state of the nation's defences. The kindest thing one has heard said recently about Government defence policy in Whitehall was how much worse it might have been. And, indeed, how much worse it may yet be.
The Secretary of State was not particularly keen yesterday to claim allies for himself in the Cabinet in his struggle on behalf of the Forces of the Crown. On his left, an uncertain number of flowers bloom. We were told there would be about 100 but the Table Office tells me there are still no more than 85. In the Lobbies tonight it will be a case of "Where have all the Left-wing gone? Voting for Michael every one."
The fact is that the pretended merits of the defence White Paper were most effectively demolished yesterday, particularly by my right hon. Friend the Member for Chesham and Amersham (Mr. Gilmour). There is still a bit of mopping up to be done and I will set about it as quickly as I can.
One of the extraordinary omissions from the hon. Gentleman's speech, and indeed the defence White Paper, was any mention whatsoever of the matter of German offset costs. The right hon. Gentleman did not even mention that the agreement expired yesterday. Are we not to be told about it at all today? Is there to be any announcement about what the Government intend to do to try to get a new agreement? Is some serious attention to be paid to this matter? I hope that the Minister who will be winding up the debate will turn his attention to this and not share his right hon. Friend's apparent complacency.
Complacency is a feature of the White Paper in other respects as well, particularly about the training standards of our Forces and about the capability we possess in reserves and reinforcements. I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman and his hon. Friends for the number of opportunities they have given me during the year to see for myself exactly what is happening to the Forces on the ground. I can vouch for the fact that in the Navy there is growing concern about the way in which limited sea time and the demands of the cod war are cutting into the training which should be done for NATO duties. In relation to the Army, we all know the effect Ulster is having on virtually every arm except the signals. The basic skills of the armoured units, the artillery and even the infantry, which are all essential to NATO tasks, are inevitably being eroded by the continuing commitments of peacekeeping in Ulster.
The RAF has been hit by restrictions on flying hours and it is bound to be hit by unserviceability because of spares shortages. There is a genuine worry—I hope the Under-Secretary will take it seriously—that two or three recent, and tragically fatal, crashes may have been caused, indirectly if not directly, by the resultant pressure on training sorties. I hope that the hon. Gentleman will look most seriously into that situation, and that when we come to the RAF debate, he will categorically assure us that he is satisfied this is not so.
We shall return to all these matters and to the question of reserves and reinforcements in the debates on the individual Services. In the meantime I believe that there is a case for reconsidering the adequacy of our reserves and our ability to call upon them when we need them. This is perhaps more extreme in our case than with some of our Allies who have regular training exercises involving the recall of reservists. As I was able to see for myself last year, the Americans have their Reforger programme, which represents a considerable, yet routine, reinforcement of the capability of their forces in Germany. I hope that there is no danger of our falling into a trap whereby we are prevented in time of threatening emergency from carrying out a partial mobilisation because that might in itself escalate tension.
The next point on the defence White Paper is the question of cuts in support. The Secretary of State was very anxious to tell us yesterday that he always knew there was more room for such cuts. The Under-Secretary who wound up last night actually claimed someone had said that last year. I am bound to say I have not found it easy to discover who that was, or what he said. Indeed, such facts as I have been able to find suggest that the opposite was true. Certainly in last year's defence White Paper in Chapter 1, paragraph 65, we are told:
Future manpower needs have been calculated against the commitments to be met under our revised defence policy and the new force structures required to discharge them.
We are told also in paragraph 69, about civilian employees:
We estimate that the number of civilians employed in support of the forces in the United Kingdom will eventually be reduced by about 15,000, largely by normal wastage.

There was no suggestion there that another 10,000 civilians were waiting in the wings to be declared redundant. There was no suggestion, even as an olive branch to the Left, that there might be scope for further cuts if they would just be patient. Very much the same tone ran through the whole review—that it had been thorough-going, complete and exhaustive, and that there was absolutely no room for a further reduction.
But in this year's White Paper we see one commitment clearly spelled out, and it is, for the first time, to cut a further 10,000 civilians. This has been presented, of course, in a way that severely underestimates the likely extent of redundancies, and I suspect virtually all of these employees will in fact have to be declared redundant in the end. The White Paper also carefully obscures the effect these cuts in support must have upon the efficiency and performance of the Forces. The fact is that there must be consequent cuts in front line performance. We were reminded again yesterday that in military terms the tail exists to support the teeth, and that if we cut the tail we must erode the efficiency of the teeth.
There must also be a serious effect on research and development, especially in the long term, and no one should underestimate the damage this will do to our chances of recovering the ground we shall lose in the technological race.
I come next to the matter of defence sales, to which there is a reference in Chapter III, paragraph 34 of the defence White Paper. This is not a particularly informative reference nor a very long one. It simply says:
Overseas sales of defence equipment cover a wide range of items produced by industry and by the ROFs, with the Defence Sales Organisation providing support, assistance and advice. These sales continue to make a valuable contribution to the national balance of payments and are expected to reach £700 million in 1976–77.
Then there is two-thirds of a blank page underneath. There was room for a bit more, and the House may agree that there is room for greater frankness. I do not believe that everything in the defence sales garden is lovely. If it is, I have not been given any evidence about it yet. Maybe the Minister will rectify this when he comes to wind up the debate tonight.
When the Secretary of State talks about standardisation, he is right to warn us


against expecting any miracles or any great break-through. He is right to remind us, if we needed reminding, what standardisation around someone else's equipment can mean. That has been the chief experience of our defence Forces under his Government. And yesterday the Secretary of State implied that we shall soon have standardisation on HOT and TOW in the anti-tank field. We also hear that a decision on AWACS is to be made in the spring; at least it says so in the defence White Paper. Is that still the case?
What now about this great memorandum of understanding with the Americans in which the Secretary of State used to take such pride? If hon. Gentlemen are rash enough to ask questions about this, I am afraid they are likely to get non-answers. I myself tried on the 23rd of last month to ask whether the Secretary of State would list the items of British defence equipment which had been ordered or considered by the Americans since this memorandum was drawn up. I was referred back to an Answer given to my hon. Friend for Chertsey and Walton (Mr. Pattie) in November last year, which said:
It has been the practice of successive Governments not to reveal details of possible arms sales".—[Official Report, 25th November 1975; Vol. 901, c. 113–14.]
I do not know how much longer the House will be content with a situation where the Government use the practice of not revealing possible arms sales to enable them to refuse to admit that none has been achieved. Nor does the Secretary of State appear to have taken aboard the importance of persuading the American Government actually to induce their defence contractors to allow British manufacturers to enter into the competition for tenders in defence contracts. This is something which needs much more urgent attention and a great deal more reference in next year's White Paper than it has received in this.
What happens meanwhile? As we know, the sales seem to be going very much our competitor's way. Twelve months ago there was great confidence among British manufacturers about what they would achieve, in the Middle East for instance. But, most of the sales concluded

and announced in the last twelve months seem to have gone to our competitors—French, American and so on. This applies even to countries to which the Government's political restrictions do not extend—and there are enough of the other sort. It makes sad reading to see the sales achieved by our competitors in countries with which this Government refuse to allow British manufacturers to trade.
Therefore, particularly on the aerospace side, industry's efficiency is hamstrung by the Government's nationalisation legislation. No doubt more of my hon. Friends would be here now to make that point if it were not for the fact that the Standing Committee considering the Aircraft and Shipbuilding Industries Bill is still dragging on upstairs.
The manufacturers are left in a decision vacuum; the customers lose interest and confidence and go elsewhere. So decisions on critical orders and critical collaborative projects are being taken now or will shortly be taken and these are going increasingly against this country's industry. There may not be many prospective sales left after the end of this year on which to keep up our military aerospace exports at today's level. The industry's exports were worth £800 million across the exchanges in 1975, but what will they be in 1980? And without the military side, how can the civil side hope to prosper?
Let us not forget that, although it would have been a scandal if the MRCA had not been ordered, there are as yet and in prospect no potential export deals to be gained from the MRCA order, because the deal is so set up that no cash passes across the exchanges between the present collaborators in the project.
I want to return now to the threat we face. The Secretary of State told us yesterday that NATO was vigilant, watching the Russians as keenly as the Russians were watching us. His message no doubt to Mr. Brezhnev was "Little Brother is watching you." The more information that we as a country can have about what the Russians are doing, the more we must welcome it.
I welcome in particular one thing which the Secretary of State said yesterday—that he would arrange for his successor to publish a more informative


document for the general public this coming year. I suggest that in so doing he might also consider the possibility of getting the Army and the RAF to run the same kind of admirable presentation teams as the Navy already has.
But the public should know what they have to watch and why so far as the Warsaw Pact countries are concerned. Anyone who has read the West German defence White Paper will probably agree that the political context of NATO's defence effort and needs is set out much more clearly, concisely and directly there than it is in our Government's White Paper. When we see what the German document has to say about the Communist defence motive, and when we study, as it is open to us to do, what the Russians themselves say to their armed forces—for instance, in the messages on Army and Navy Day a few weeks ago—it ceases to be necessary to remind ourselves that we are dealing with a militaristic society whose values, standards and motives are quite different from our own.
But there is one question which the Secretary of State might have tried to answer yesterday. That is, how long he thinks the Warsaw Pact countries can keep up their enormous effort in arms expenditure? He stressed how great the costs were, telling us that they had hitherto been grossly miscalculated—underestimated by 50 per cent. or more.
What he did not say was how long he thought the Russians themselves would be prepared to pay the price and subject their people to those pressures and what he supposed might happen if the sheer inertia of the Soviet military machine were to roll Russia's leaders onwards on a course which led inevitably to military confrontation. The Under-Secretary might have read and re-read in the Solzhenitsyn interview what that very perceptive and qualified observer had to say about the momentum of the Soviet rearmament programme.
We must all agree that if there is an arms race—the signs are that there is—it is the Russians who have been setting the pace for the past 10 years. That being so, it is fair for people in this country to ask one important question and to expect it to be answered. If the Russian armed forces are the greatest present

and foreseeable danger to world peace, how should the West react? It is doubtful whether there will be any time for strategy in any future world war. I doubt whether the distinction between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons would have any relevance if that awful event were to come about.
Therefore, perhaps we need to look again at the triad, and to reconsider it in terms of one of its three supports being nuclear deterrence, another conventional deterrence and the third political and economic deterrence. If we do this, we must also realise that we have to aim to control events at all three levels, always hoping that we never have to move from the political and economic level.
Certainly the Secretary of State was right yesterday to stress the political threat facing the West and to tell us that 1976 must be a year of test for the Soviet Union. To state the thing in those terms does not mean returning to the cold war, but it requires recognition that military balance is not the hinge upon which it all turns.
Even when we declare the importance of the military parity and even when we on this side say that we recognise the need to spend more on defence and to strengthen our defences in consultation with our Allies as circumstances dictate, that does not make us warmongers. The hon. Member for Salford. East (Mr. Allaun) tried to suggest yesterday that he and his hon. Friends had some monopoly of dislike for war. Let me disillusion him. There can be no hon. Member who wants war to break out again. No thinking person anywhere wants that. But we have to recognise that our chances of avoiding it depend upon the determination with which we resist the forces which make war likely. As we need to put more effort into defence, so we need to show more determination in diplomacy.
Tonight the Government may have the doubtful satisfaction of winning the vote. No doubt if the Liberals are here, they will be in the Government Lobby. However, I believe—if I am right I welcome the fact—that the United Ulster Unionist Council MPs are more likely to be against the Government. It is clear from the speeches which some of them made on the Consolidated Fund Bill that they recognise that they cannot


opt out of decisions about the defence of the United Kingdom.
The Tribune Group, of course, will be for the Secretary of State—not because he has convinced them, but because they believe that they are within sight of the heights of political power. They believe that they can carry the spirit of their miserable little amendment into the Cabinet room and into the policy of the next Prime Minister and his Government.

Mr. William Hamilton: The hon. Member does not really mean that.

Mr. Onslow: The hon. Member seems to find that thought amazing, but I do not doubt that the country will weigh the determination of his hon. Friends to carry their expression of view into the Lobby tonight against the struggle for power in which the Labour Party still persists in plunging itself and the country.
We condemn the Government and their wretched White Paper. We do not expect to see them have the chance to produce another, and for that at least this country and its Allies can be truly grateful.

5.0 p.m.

Mr. E. Femyhough: The hon. Member for Woking (Mr. Onslow) has condemned the White Paper. He pretended that we are doing something that has never been done by a Tory Government, something that has been done only when a Labour Government have been in power.
I remind the hon. Gentleman, as I reminded the right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham (Mr. Gilmour) yesterday, that in 1951 a Tory Government took over from a Labour Government. On 5th March 1952 Sir Winston Churchill, the Leader of the Tory Government, said:
I should, however, be misleading the House if I led it to suppose that the delay which has taken place is due only to a shortfall in earnings by contractors for various reasons. We have pursued a definite policy of giving a somewhat higher measure of priority to materials needed for exports. The grave financial crisis under which we are labouring supplies more than sufficient explanation for this decision. We depend upon exports to purchase the imports of food and raw materials without which we can neither re-arm nor live as solvent economic society".—[Official Report, 5th March 1952; Vol. 497. c. 433.]

Sir Winston Churchill made it clear in March 1952 that he was reducing the rearmament programme introduced by the previous Labour Government. That was sound economic sense.
No nation can be militarily strong if it is economically weak. The Government are determined substantially to increase exports. They are determined to get rid of the balance-of-payments problems. Without some cut in defence expenditure it would be very difficult, as it was for the 1951 Tory Government, to accomplish the Government's aim—namely, to overcome the balance-of-payment problem and to get into a sound financial situation. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State is not a pioneer; he is merely following the example of probably the most respected person ever to be associated with the Conservative Party.
I listened to most of yesterday's speeches. It seems that the world is divided into angels and devils.

Mr. Frank Allaun: The goodies and the baddies.

Mr. Fernyhough: We are always the angels. Yesterday we heard once more about the Berlin Wall. It was said to be an atrocity. We heard about Hungary, and it was an atrocity. We heard about Czechoslovakia, and that was an atrocity. But nobody said anything about the British intervention in Suez. That was equally an atrocity. Nobody said anything about our landing troops in Iran. Nobody said anything about the Americans invading Dominica. Nobody said anything about the Americans in Vietnam.
Portugal was discussed at some length by the right hon. Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Mr. Amery). He seemed to think that the situation in Angola arose only last November. In fact, the struggle in Angola continued for 12 years. Angola had pleaded with the West for help but it received none. Therefore, Angola turned to other sources, and it was given what it wanted.
We should have re-examined the position. Angola was determined to get the necessary weapons to free itself. It was determined to get its freedom but the West was not prepared to help it get the weapons that were wanted. When it turned to another source, we should not have cried over spilt milk.
The hon. Member for Woking said that he wanted Britain to keep up with the technological race. What kind of race is it? The Americans boast that they have a 30-times overkill capacity. The Russians boast that they have a 20-times overkill capacity. They are saying that they have the nuclear power to destroy every man, woman and child 30 times over or 20 times over. I have never known such nonsense. The world can be blown up only once.
If it is believed that there is no danger of the world being blown up, I ask those who take that view to listen to the following quotation:
If we have not reached an agreement well before 1977, then I believe you will see an explosion of technology and an explosion of numbers at the end of which we will be lucky if we have the present stability, in which it will be impossible to describe what strategic superiority means. And one of the questions which we have to ask ourselves as a country is: what in the name of God is strategic superiority? What is the significance of it, politically, militarily, operationally, at these levels of numbers? What do you do with it?…We will be living in a world which will be extraordinarily complex, in which opportunities for nuclear warfare exist that were unimaginable 15 years ago or at the beginning of the nuclear age…".
Those were the words of the American Secretary of State in Moscow. I am quoting from a book that was written by a British diplomat, Robin Edmonds, who served in Moscow. He ends his book with the following:
And yonder all before us lies
Deserts of vast eternity.
That is why I do not want to be in the great strategic race. Neither the politicians nor the generals have a right to use weapons which would destroy the world. This world was not given to this generation alone. Generations not yet born have a right to inherit it.
If ever the great military machines such as the hon. Member for Woking would like to build up lead to the confrontation about which he spoke, there will not be any victors; there will be only the vanquished. There will be no winners; there will be only losers. There will not be life; there will be only death.

5.8 p.m.

Mr. Hugh Fraser: I am sure that we all listened with attention to the brief speech that the right hon. Member for Jarrow (Mr. Fernyhough) addressed to the House. His

words were very reminiscent of the speeches that were made when the Alder-maston marches took place.
I am sure that the House will agree that our defence depends on two factors. The first is credibility and the second is effectiveness. Having heard the speech of the right hon. Member for Jarrow, and when we see that the Secretary of State for Employment, one of the right hon. Gentleman's companions on the Alder-maston marches, is perhaps about to achieve the highest possible office in the Government, we can only wonder where the credibility of the Government's defence policy can lie. That is a major factor that is having an effect on sterling as well as on the views of those outside the House, such as Marshal Grechko and some of the commanders in Western Europe.
I turn to the factor of effectiveness. I sympathise with the Secretary of State for Defence, as he is living in an environment which, to say the least of it, is hostile. It is hostile economically and, as far as he is concerned, hostile politcally when 80 of his hon. Friends can sign a motion on defence showing that they are not behind or even beside him, but rather beside themselves. The problem is that there is no credibility in the Government's defence programme, even though the sums involved are enormous, and there is no indication of any great effectiveness.
Effectiveness can only be proved or disproved when one has been defeated in a war, but the Government have made two great errors. There has been a benign neglect of central direction of defence from the Cabinet committee over which the Prime Minister must preside, and one sees such wild contradictions that we have to wonder whether there has been a proper direction of overall strategy by the Government.
For instance, the Minister boasted of having strengthened the northern flank of NATO, but, by actions for which Britain was at least partly responsible, two extreme flanks of NATO are in total chaos—Cyprus and Iceland. The Iceland confrontation is something which the next Government must cease as soon as possible. It is the greatest disastrous contribution we could make to NATO. This area is the key to our defence of the West.
I have not spoken in a defence debate since I raised the subject of the virtual destruction of the basis of the Territorial Army by the present Chancellor of the Exchequer when he was Secretary of State for Defence. There are problems which the present Ministry seems totally unable to resolve. Among them are the military tactics being employed by our Armed Forces on the land in Europe. There must be urgent consideration of whether the tactical nuclear weapon is an effective weapon which must not lead to ultimate escalation at an early stage.
Whatever we may think of Mr. Solzhenitsyn and the noble Lord to whom the Minister referred in such disparaging terms, one thing is clear. The major option of the Russian defence forces at present is a long war. This is where the Government Front Bench could be deceiving the nation. What matters if one is engaged in a long war is military stocks and reserves, and in this area many of the Government's figures are suspect. Nothing could be more disastrous than that, faced with what the Russians regard as their chief option—a long war—we should have a war programme based on a 30-day or 60-day war. The nation needs reassurance on this point and I hope that the Minister will provide it tonight.
At present, this country has reserves of 166,000 men, 60,000 of whom, according to the plans, will leave this country on the outbreak of hostilities to reinforce BAOR. The reserves of the United States for the defence of the homeland total 1·5 million. The reserves for the defence of Germany total 1 million and for the defence of France, 700,000. We shall have fewer than 100,000 persons to deal with the sort of troubles that might arise and the threats and attacks that could be launched by the Warsaw Pact countries.
This is not a new problem. It is a fact on which the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell), and I have been warning successive Governments for the last 10 years. It was clearly predictable once National Service had been abolished in the early 1960s. We have to rebuild some form of reserve army soon if we are to regard ourselves as in any way being defended. This is the

most important message one can give the House.
I question whether the Ministry is sufficiently powerful in forecasting our military commitments, or whether it is still riven by inter-Services rivalry which can result in priorities being given to the wrong sphere and adjustments being made in the wrong direction. The extremely difficult decision of what to do with the main battle tank must be taken very soon. Since the Yom Kippur war, it is extremely doubtful whether the main battle tank is still master of the battlefield.
It may be we shall have to invest far more in precision weapons of destruction which are cheaper and infinitely more effective. Yet the White Paper says that we are now contemplating plans for a new battle tank in conjunction with the German armed forces. This sort of decision can only be taken by a more centralised and efficient Ministry.
It is noticeable that however much the number of men in the field has fallen, the number of top civil servants from under-secretary down to the third level is almost exactly the same as it was six years ago. The structure is still too powerful in defence of individual Services, arms and instruments.
I disagree with the Minister's view that the situation is not serious. It is serious and deteriorating. When Sir Winston Churchill started disarmament, the situation was improving throughout the world. Who today can talk about peace being indivisible? Even detente is being fractured. Everywhere violence is growing, and peace has been lost somewhere on the Bogside or in Beirut.
The House knows and people outside the House know that the danger to this country is growing, and that is precisely why we need a strong Chief of Defence Staff, whom I think we shall soon have. We need a strong permanent undersecretary of the Department. Above all, we need a change of Government. Only through a strong Prime Minister and a strong Secretary of State for Defence can the military problems that face this country be solved.

5.21 p.m.

Mr. R. C. Mitchell: I start from the simple proposition that it is the duty of every Government to provide a defence capability


adequate for the country's needs. Never again must we return to the situation of pre-1939. At that time a Conservative Government, who were not helped much by the Opposition, allowed our defences to run down, and in 1939 we went into a war with inadequate material, insufficient men and inadequate weapons. I am sure that all future historians will say that if Hitler in 1941 had turned on us instead of the East, we probably should not have been having this debate today. At that time we had no effective defence.
In co-operation with our Allies—we cannot do it alone—our duty as a nation is to do everything possible to meet any potential threat. We have to ask ourselves whether there is a potential threat. Some of my hon. Friends think that there is not, but we then have to ask why the Russians are building so many submarines and surface warships. Are they for defensive purposes? If they are, what are the Russians defending and from which potential aggressor? It might be said that they are afraid of China, but if that is so, will someone explain to me why most of those naval forces are concentrated in the Baltic, the Atlantic and the Mediterranean?
I wish that some of my colleagues who constantly put down motions criticising British defence expenditure would once or twice in their lives put down a motion criticising Soviet defence expenditure. I read carefully in Hansard the speech made yesterday by my hon. Friend the Member for Salford, East (Mr. Allaun). I told my hon. Friend that I intended to refer to him. His speech contained no word of criticism of Soviet defence expenditure.
On the other hand, we must recognise that we no longer have the economic strength to be a world-wide imperial Power. Some Conservative Members still seem to be living in the past. I read the speech made yesterday by the right hon. Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Mr. Amery) who said what I have just said but went on to suggest that we should become militarily involved in Southern Africa—I am not sure on which side. The worst possible defence policy is one which contains commitments which exceed our capabilities. We do not have the capability to deal with world-wide

affairs or, for that matter, with Southern Africa.

Mr. Julian Amery: I would not have interrupted the hon. Gentleman had he not referred to me. I stressed yesterday that, if there were to be any intervention, it should be on a collective NATO or European basis. If the hon. Gentleman looks carefully at what I said, he will find that is so.

Mr. Mitchell: I accept that entirely, but I do not agree that there should be any collective interference by the West in Southern Africa, because it would weaken the general Western defence capabilities.
We are right to concentrate our defence capability inside NATO. I hope that the Government will not be diverted into long discussions about a separate European defence policy. Discussions on those lines are continually held in the European Parliament and other European bodies, but to my mind they are unrealistic.
We must concentrate our efforts inside NATO. Over the years the NATO Alliance has been strongly criticised by some of my hon. Friends. I often wonder why. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. It is 31 years since the end of the last war. During that time, apart from Russian aggression in Hungary and Czechoslovakia and the dispute between Greece and Turkey about Cyprus, we have had peace in Europe. I defy anyone here to point to another period of 31 years in our history when we had peace in Europe. That peace has been largely due to the existence of the NATO Alliance. We dare not and must not jeopardise its continuation.
I should place more credence upon the Opposition amendment if, at the same time as Opposition Members called for increases in defence expenditure, they did not go round the country making weekend speeches calling for massive cuts in public expenditure. Shadow Ministers criticise the Government in the House for not spending enough money on, say, defence, education, health, or housing, while at the same time Opposition Members make wonderful speeches in the country calling for cuts in public expenditure. It is a hypocritical attitude.
Further, the Opposition call for massive cuts in taxation. Defence, education.


health, housing and everything else have to be paid for and, unless we can increase our national product rapidly, we shall have to pay for all those services out of taxation.
Some of my Labour colleagues put down an amendment which has not been selected. It questions whether there have been any real cuts in defence expenditure. As in housing, education and so on, there are reductions in projected defence expenditure, but those who find themselves out of a job as a result of reductions in defence expenditure will find that those cuts are very real.
I was surprised that my hon. Friend the Member for Salford, East complained that the previous defence review, instead of reducing the number of jobs by 5,000, increased it by 7,000. It is remarkable, at a time of high unemployment, that anyone should appear to be calling for additional unemployment.

Mr. Tom Litterick: Nonsense.

Mr. Mitchell: I thank my hon. Friend. Some of my colleagues seem to be asking for more men to be put out of work. In Southampton there are 5,000 men directly or indirectly employed on defence projects. I thank the Minister for placing an order for the Type 42 destroyer with Vosper Thorneycroft. But for that there would have been many redundancies by the end of the year, and I hope that the Minister will later in the year place a further order. If my right hon. Friend took the advice of hon. Members who signed that amendment there would not be any Type 42 destroyers, and hundreds of my constituents would be out of work. That applies equally throughout the rest of the country.
I should like to live in a world in which we did not need to spend money on defence. I have spent my life in education, and I rejoiced on the day when education expenditure exceeded defence expenditure. I obviously prefer money to be spent on building schools, hospitals and so on, but, sadly, we do not live in an ideal world.
I want my children to have the best possible education the State can provide, and I am prepared to pay for it through the taxation system. I also want my children to grow up and live in a free

and democratic society. I believe that we must be prepared to defend that society and, if necessary, to make sacrifices to do so.
I shall support the Government in the Lobby tonight because I do not believe that the reductions they have made in defence expenditure seriously reduce our defence capability. I issue a word of warning: enough is enough. Any further major reduction in defence expenditure would seriously jeopardise our capability to defend our free and democratic society, and that I would not support.

5  p.m.

Mr. Maurice Macmillan: The hon. Member for Southampton, Itchen (Mr. Mitchell) made some of the remarks in the opening speech sound very like those of the pre-war appeasers, whom he rightly condemned, from whichever side of the House they then came. The Secretary of State in opening the debate yesterday made it plain that the defence cuts, as the hon. Gentleman acknowledged, are real. As confirmed by the Under-Secretary of State in winding up last night, they are very largely in support forces. They are partly due to the reductions in front line troops in the 1975 review.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Chesham and Amersham (Mr. Gilmour) made it very plain that it was not the tail that was being cut but, as it were, the backbone, the stomach, the heart and the lungs of our defence capability—everything, in other words, that enables the animal not only to fight, but to go on fighting, and to go on long enough in NATO terms and in NATO slang to enable NATO to move from a former trip-wire philosophy to that of deterrence by capability for flexible response.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Stafford and Stone (Mr. Fraser) added a new dimension when he suggested that NATO should be thinking of the capacity to continue fighting conventionally in a long war and cast doubt in those circumstances on the effectiveness of the tactical nuclear deterrent. He pointed out that our reserves were dangerously low for that purpose.
Our contribution to NATO depends on our overall defence contribution, and it seems odd, having weakened our non-NATO contribution, further to weaken


what we are doing through NATO itself. I do not think it is any good right hon. and hon. Gentlemen opposite making a mock of those who give warnings on the grounds that they are exaggerating a situation which it is claimed no longer exists. I should like to quote a remark made by Mr. Gromyko in September 1975 when he said
the actions of the Warsaw Pact are having a major influence in shaping the situation not only in Europe but far beyond Europe.
That is, I think, the situation we all have to face, and while it may be right to keep our main effort for Central Europe, the Eastern Atlantic and the Channel, I am worried by the limitations that this imposes on NATO itself.
The Under-Secretary of State pointed out yesterday that we had thus concentrated our main effort. He added, in reference to the Royal Navy in the Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic, that
the Royal Navy still retains the ability to deploy its forces, together with those of our Allies, wherever our interests might be at stake.
By "our" I assume he meant British.
I should like the Minister of State to confirm that ability and to tell us that it is not in any way affected by the abandonment of "Bulwark", by the conversion of "Hermes" to anti-submarine warfare, by the fact that the ASW "Invincible" class is at risk any distance from land, with only the Harrier as air cover. Will he confirm that this capability is still on after the "Ark Royal' has been abandoned and we have no further strike carrier?
The whole philosophy underlying the Government's defence policy might have been written as a satire by Lewis Carroll. It is a sort of "Looking Glass" philosophy. The Russians advance into the Indian Ocean and we abandon Singapore and Gan. The Lebanon is in a turmoil and we weaken our effort in Cyprus and in the sovereign bases. Central and Southern Africa is penetrated by an armed invasion from Soviet satellites and clients, and the Government rejoice that we are abandoning Simonstown.
I think that this attitude stems from a point of view which I am not sure that the Member for Itchen shares, but which was expressed by the Under-Secretary last night when he said

Defence has to take its place in the battle for relative priorities."—[Official Report, 31st March 1976; Vol. 908, c. 1430–2.]
That is true up to a point, but only up to a point, because the first duty of Her Majesty's Government must be the defence of the realm, the safety and security of the people in it, and our ability, uninterrupted, to import food and raw materials. This is true despite our economic weakness—in fact, it may be even more true because of our economic weakness.
My right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Hexham (Mr. Rippon) and my night hon. Friend the Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Mr. Amery) made very plain just how dependent is the United Kingdom on raw materials which are available only from Southern Africa. My right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Hexham pointed out that 80 per cent. of the NATO oil and 70 per cent. of its strategic raw materials came via the west coast of Africa. The same dependence applies not only to the United Kingdom, but to Europe.
But now it is the Soviet forces and Soviet allies which dominate these seas from bases in East and West Africa, and which have enough command of the sea generally to interrupt trade. I think it is true that the failure of the West to react to Soviet aggression in Angola makes it all the more urgent to resist further Soviet imperialism and fill the gap which has been left by Britain's withdrawal from her non-NATO commitments.
I do not suggest that this should be done by Britain alone. We should work with our European friends, particularly France, with the United States and, as my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Hexham pointed out, with Australia, owing to her particular interest—not for the purpose of pursuing any unwise or wrong objective, but simply to secure the raw materials without which we cannot live. I hope that some reassurance will be given to the House about this subject in the winding-up speech.
The hon. Member for Huddersfield, East (Mr. Mallalieu) suggested that all defence policy was largely a matter of guesswork, and he suggested that the Government ought to make the guess and to listen to its advisers. I hope that the Government will not make the mistake of failing to listen to those who are in a


position of sufficient power to make their will come true. After all, Hitler told us in "Mein Kamf" exactly what he would do, and we might have done a great deal better to pay more attention to what he said.
Last September Mr. Gromyko said that "the forces of peace and progress"—that is double-talk for the Soviet armed forces—now had "a visibly increased preponderance" and might be in a position to
lay down the direction of international politics.
Our reactions to this statement should be to consider in Europe, within the context of the Community, a united foreign policy. I think that this implies having some sort of European defence policy within the NATO context. The concept of a European foreign policy seems to carry with it the need to think in European rather than merely national terms in the context of NATO.
That is why I would hope that we will consider within Europe, including France, the view put by my right hon. Friend, that perhaps a tactical nuclear deterrent is no longer a valid NATO concept. We should also consider within the Community, including France, whether we ought to have a European nuclear deterrent.
I am sorry that in his last Question Time the Prime Minister was so strongly opposed to the whole idea of any European nuclear deterrent and referred in emotive terms to German fingers on the trigger. If Germany wants a nuclear deterrent of its own, no one can stop it. and I prefer to have a European deterrent than to see any single country escalate the nuclear race. I also prefer a European nuclear capability to having the whole concept of the deterrent become through conventional weakness so incredible that the Germans would be tempted to make some sort of arrangement with the Soviet Union, as Finland has done.
It is ridiculous that the EEC cannot itself defend its vital interests. Separately we may be feeble, but together we are strong. All we need is the political will. The first thing that we Conservatives demand from the Government is that Britain should show itself willing to build

up its reserves and, in the light of the forces we must maintain in this country, to do at once little things like strengthening the Gutersloh air base to take wide-bodied jets, to look at the naval building programme which has fallen so disastrously behind, and to try to resolve a little more quickly some of the problems of standardisation which are extremely difficult.
Then I should like to see a British-led European Community approach to our Allies and to the Commonwealth with four objectives. The first would be to resist Soviet aggression now wherever and whenever it may come. We have seen in the past the results of letting things go too far. We saw domination by the Nazis of the Rhineland, of the Sudetenland, of Czechoslovakia, Austria and then Poland. Now we have seen the Soviet Union taking over by force in Hungary and Czechoslovakia, helping its allies in Vietnam, and using its clients to invade Angola.
Are we to wait until Yugoslavia, too, is at risk, because this is not a matter of ideology. I am not talking about the Communist threat. I am talking about the threat of Soviet imperialism, because that is the only threat which the free and peaceful world faces today. There is no other.
Secondly, we should be discussing methods of preventing the Soviet Union from rescuing its allies and clients from the mistakes and failures of their own aggression. Thirdly, we should be discussing changes in aid and trade policies where they might damage our interests, whether they apply to the Warsaw Pact countries or the Third World, including Mozambique. Fourthly, we should reconsider the subsidising of Soviet incompetence by food, including grain, and by economic aid and cheap credit. We should rather consider exploiting Soviet difficulties, both economic and military.
To react like this may require us to rearm and to provide arms for our Allies and those who are willing to help us, including South Africa. So be it. That does not conflict with detente as it is understood by the Soviets themselves. Detente has not prevented them from rearming, and so long as the cold war continues on their side, as it does—often hotted up every now and then—it is up to us to keep our defences strong to


avoid the sort of possible disasters which have been suggested in the debate.
I am not depressed by the dangers because I think that we have the capability, the skill, the industry, the workpeople, and, if we can marshal it, the will to maintain our defences and, if necessary, to make sacrifices for our freedom. We need a lead from the Government. The right hon. Member for Jarrow (Mr. Fernyhough) made a brief intervention. I had great sympathy with what he said, because it made sense. But what he said implied that none of this was worth while, that it was better to surrender. I do not agree with that, but it is a policy which could be justified logically. What cannot be justified is wasting money on weakness.
Britain is not a great Power, but it does not need to be. We need enough military strength to make our diplomatic skill usable and enough political will to make it credible. Alas, there is nothing in the White Paper or the Government's speeches to show any real understanding of the dangers that confront us, or any clear will on their part to face those dangers. They seem to be concerned rather to lull the British people into a false sense of security. I hope that by our speeches and our votes in this House we can at least bring home to those we represent the truth which the Government have so far tried to conceal

5.48 p.m.

Mr. Robin F. Cook: I do not intend to pursue the right hon. Member for Farnham (Mr. Macmillan) around the globe in his extensive coverage of world affairs. I must take up his point, however, about movement towards a European nuclear deterrent. He said that he would prefer to have a European nuclear deterrent than to have another independent nuclear Power within Europe. I can see the case for making that choice if the choice has to be made. However, I would much prefer to see Europe without nuclear weapons.
The hon. Member for Woking (Mr. Onslow) has just left the Chamber, which is a pity because I wanted to tell him that I agreed with a lot of what he said. He said that it was spurious to distinguish between strategic and tactical nuclear weapons, and I agree. The only reason why the super-Powers are able to

call certain nuclear weapons tactical is that those weapons will not land in the heartland of the super-Powers: they will come down on countries outside Russia and America. However, as far as concerns Europeans, those who are to receive these tactical nuclear weapons dropped on us, the effect will be strategic even if they are called tactical weapons. Many of these tactical weapons are of much greater explosive force than the bombs dropped on Japan in the Second World War.
I and other hon. Members on the Government side of the House were rather distressed when reading the White Paper to see in paragraph 27 that it is NATO's strategy,
if deterrence fails, to meet aggression with a a defence tailored to the situation, selecting a suitable level of response from a wide range of options.
The language of that sentence is rather opaque, but I hope we are not meant to take that as an endorsement of the Schlesinger doctrine of flexible nuclear options, which many of us find pernicious in that it is aimed to justify overkill capacity and can only bring nuclear war nearer by making it more easy to contemplate by giving it a credible strategy.
In the bulk of my remarks I want to take up a point raised today by my hon. Friend the Under-Secretary, who referred to the current spate of articles in the Western Press concerning the imminence of a Russian invasion of superior might. As Professor Galbraith put it in is letter to The Times recently,
Today the Elbe; tomorrow, Nantucket.
The culmination of these articles, their apotheosis, came in an article by Lord Chalfont in The Times three weeks ago. based upon a report by a brigadier in the Belgian Army who has never held high NATO command and whose report was made in the form of a private paper on a "worst case" analysis. It is an indication of the extent of mass hysteria in the media and in our society that an article based on such a private report, which is 10 years old, should get coverage on the feature page in the middle of The Times almost as great as the obituary of Sir Winston Churchill 11 years ago and as great as almost any article that has appeared since then.
That article is only one of many and I accept that those on the Government side


of the House who do not accept that there is a case for increasing military expenditure any further have a heavy duty to examine what has been said in these articles and, if we find it unconvincing, to explain why we find the arguments unconvincing.
I wish to concentrate on that matter, but before doing so I should like to take up the comments made by the hon. Member for Woking. I quite accept his strictures on the Soviet Union. I certainly accept that the size of military forces there is too large for any conceivable rational purpose. The most benign interpretation that one can put on the size of those forces is that those who run that repressive, autocratic, authoritarian régime find it convenient to militarise that society and keep the system of universal conscription which reduces dissidence and protest. This may give us some reassurance that those forces may not be aimed at the invasion of the West, but it is not a reassurance that will give much comfort to those of us with a commitment to democracy, because it is based on an entire negation of democracy.
I do not expect to see disarmament achieved through international negotiation. I believe that it is a fallacy to imagine that if one brings together those who are at the top of the pyramid of military-industrial-political machines these people will then agree to dismantle the pyramid on which they arose.
For instance, I would mention the progress at the Vienna talks. This is the eighth White Paper in eight years that has referred to the progress of talks on mutual and balanced force reductions there. The talks have been going on for only three years, but the five White Papers that preceded them covered the preparations for the talks. We have failed to see one concrete result of these talks. I would ask those hon. Members who believe in disarmament only through multilateral negotiation to give us some evidence that it ever has succeeded or will succeed in the foreseeable future.
If we are to have progress towards disarmament and the reduction of armed confrontation, it will be achieved much more through the internal domestic debate between those who wish to adopt a lower defence profile and those who wish to maintain a high posture of

armed confrontation. To those of us who accept that analysis, the most distressing feature in the current international situation is just how weak opposition in the Soviet Union is to the military regime and just how brutally it is repressed by that same machine.
I want to turn to the allegations which have been made not that that military machine still exists but that its weight, power and might has been augmented in the last five years. I referred last week to the annual paper, "The Military Balance", published by the IISS, an independent, impartial organisation, and as authoritative as any non-governmental organisation can be. I find it striking that between 1971 and 1975—which is the latest issue of "The Military Balance"—the number of troops available to the Warsaw Pact in North and Central Europe—which are the areas in which we agree that NATO is weakest—actually dropped by 65,000. In the same five-year period, the most recent period for which we have figures, the number of troops available to NATO rose by 45,000. Thus, in so far as there has been a shift in the number of troops in those two areas, it has been a shift in favour of NATO.
If hon. Members doubt my deduction from that publication, they may wish to refer to "Problems of Communism", a publication of the United States Information Department—to which the Tribune Group does not subscribe. In the September-October issue, hon. Members will find an article by Laurence Caldwell—again, an accepted international expert—who produces a similar table for the last seven-year period. The table shows a very slight reduction in the number of Warsaw Pact forces in Central and Northern Europe.
If we go back to such primary sources as there are, we find that there is no clear evidence of a build-up. However, if one is selective and takes particular areas and weapons, one can produce a different picture. The defence review that we are now considering achieves that outstandingly successfully with the naval balance by confining its graph to the Eastern Atlantic, which contains the major Soviet base and 50 per cent. of the Soviet navy. It is hardly surprising that, if one takes a sector which contains half of the Soviet


navy, one discovers that it has a preponderance in that part of the world. There would be no point in denying that the Soviet navy has modernised at a rapid rate over the past 10 years, but there is no point in exaggerating the extent of the build-up.
I take the point made by the right hon. and learned Member for Hexham (Mr. Rippon) in the debate yesterday. He made the allegation that between 1964 and 1974 the Soviet navy produced 249 new major combat ships. I am afraid that the right hon. and learned Gentleman is not with us today, but when he reads Hansard tomorrow he may wish to consult "The Military Balance" for the current year, which contains a table in an annex which provides the figures for the 10 years 1965 to 1974. In those years the number of ships produced for the Soviet navy was not 249. It was, in fact, 84. In the same 10-year period the NATO countries produced 151 major combat vessels.
The right hon. Member for Farnham is quite right to ask why the Warsaw Pact wants 84 new combat vessels, but someone in the Kremlin, in Warsaw or in East Berlin is also asking why NATO wants 151 major combat vessels. I invite the right hon. Gentleman to go into the Library at the end of the debate and obtain the annual defence posture statement by the American Defence Department, the statement made by Donald Rumsfeld to Congress only in January this year. On pages 155 and 156 of the document he will find the following quotation:
Soviet naval peacetime presence increased sharply in the late 1960s but now appears to have stabilised at a level below that of the overall U.S. presence; however, in certain areas such as the Mediterranean the Soviet Union continues to deploy more forces than the United States. When the peacetime fleets of allies on both sides are tallied, it is clear that the U.S. and its allies deploy naval forces in peacetime which are superior to those deployed by the Soviet Union and its allies.
That is a quotation from a man who has access to the best intelligence sources in the West. It does not bear out the allegation that the Soviet navy is now in command of most of the world seas.
What I fear is that if both sides adopt a "worst case" analysis of the other side's strength we shall be locked in a

spiralling arms race from which we shall not be able to escape. Let me illustrate how this happens. If we look at the figures of NATO's military strength, they exclude the figures of the French military forces. The reason is that France participates in the political organisation of NATO, but has withdrawn its forces from the military command. In examining the situation, it is sensible for us to leave out those French forces from the balance. However, equally any Soviet general contemplating invasion of the West would assume that French forces would be available in those circumstances to assist NATO forces. Conversely, the Warsaw Pact States since 1969 have divided their forces into two contingents, one for territorial defence and another for the Warsaw Pact command. For all I know, Warsaw Pact commanders may look at the forces available to them in the same way as NATO commanders leave out of consideration the French forces—in other words, Warsaw Pact commanders may leave out of account those forces intended for the territorial defence of satellite countries.
Thus, by taking a selective view of their own forces and the forces of an enemy, commanders of both sides are able with sincerity to say to the politicians of both sides that their own forces are inferior, the forces of the other side are superior and, therefore, they must have further military expenditure to bridge the gap. That is what has happened in the past five years.
It is true, as my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Defence said yesterday, that the Soviet military expenditure is increasing. It is also true that military expenditure in Western countries has increased. The hon. Member for Woking referred to the Germans' "White Book" which he found useful. I accept that it gives more information to their House than does our own annual publication. However, one table omitted by the hon. Gentleman shows that German military expenditure has increased by 64 per cent. in five years. Similarly, the Italian military budget has increased by 22 per cent. in recent years, and the United States military procurement budget has increased by a staggering 30 per cent. in one year.
My hon. Friend the Member for Southampton, Itchen (Mr. Mitchell), who


has now left the Chamber, spoke tellingly of the experience of the Second World War, of the country being almost unprepared in a period of appeasement which failed. I address my remarks to my hon. Friend in his absence in a tone of humility because my generation did not live through that period. If I had lived through that period my impression of events would have been more vivid and I might have reached different conclusions. But my hon. Friend must not let the lessons of the Second World War blind him to the lessons of the First World War. In that conflict two world blocs in Europe were locked in armed conflict—not because either side had a political motive or, indeed, a rational diplomatic objective, but because both sides had for so long pursued a competitive arms race that armed conflict became an inevitable product of that race.
I agree with the hon. Member for Woking that we are locked in an East-West arms race. The spectre that haunts me is the prospect that, despite the moves to diplomatic detente, despite the growing trade that exists between the two blocs, we shall find ourselves involved in a final military conflict because we have continued a competitive arms race without seeking to escape from it.
Against that background, I must give grudging congratulations to the Government Front Bench in that its members have not participated in the world lunacy of increasing defence expenditure. Nevertheless, they have not gone far enough. They have not reduced the burden of defence expenditure on public expenditure or industrial strength.
I have time to make only one illustration. I find it significant that we in Britain spend more on research and development on military manufacture than do France and Germany, our two major competitors. At the same time we spend less on research and development in civilian manufactured goods than does France or Germany. It may be that there is no connection and that, even if we were to spend less on military research and development, our investment in civilian research and development would be just as miserable. Surely, however, if we were to reduce the amount of industrial production given over to arms work, we should free skilled

resources and investment in research and development. By freeing expensive plant and machinery we could try to make up the leeway lost to our competitors.
If there is a threat to our democratic institutions, I believe that it is not an external but an internal threat. If we fail to solve our economic and industrial problems and to arrest our decline in world export markets in the past decade, this House will be lucky to survive as a democratic institution into the next decade. By maintaining the present large proportion of our industry devoted to armaments we make it that much more difficult to solve these problems of industrial decay. I very much fear that that failure poses the greater threat to our democratic institutions.

6.8 p.m.

Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles: The hon. Member for Edinburgh, Central (Mr. Cook) will forgive me if I do not take up his arguments. I am on a somewhat different tack this afternoon.
The White Paper is a false prospectus. It makes the case very vividly about ever-increasing Soviet bloc military strength and then deduces that it is time for us to cut our military strength. The Government motto seems to be "No defence please, we're British". I agree with the White Paper when it says in paragraph 26:
The Russians may, however, be tempted to apply other forms of pressure designed, in particular, to influence the political and economic policies of Western European nations".
The main point I wish to make is that it is at sea, outside the NATO area, that those "other forms of pressure" can most easily be applied. This can come about because the Soviet Union now has a world-wide oceanic navy. It could harass or interrupt merchant shipping, whether British or the shipping of any Western nation, step by step, without any overt act of war and with minimum risk of escalation—certainly with less risk of escalation than any other form of pressure that could be brought to bear.
It is on the flanks of NATO that the danger is greatest. Yet on the northern flank a civilian car ferry has been brought in for use in a NATO amphibious exercise to contribute to the British lift. This has become known in Service circles


as the "Mason-Marsh cut-price cruises". In war this sort of expedient is often necessary, but as a serious long-term contribution to NATO planning such a Heath-Robinson lash-up is deplorable.
On the southern flank, in the Mediterranean, the relative Soviet strength is increasing all the time. Inevitably, there will be a difficult scenario in that part of the world when President Tito of Yugoslavia leaves the scene. Cyprus is our only remaining effective base there. I understand that no fixed-wing aircraft remain in Cyprus. There are no Nimrods and, therefore, there is no effective surveillance of the Mediterranean. Nimrods could fly the length of the Mediterranean in a few hours, as the Minister knows.

Mr. John: Malta is in the Mediterranean.

Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles: I am talking about Cyprus.

Mr. John: The hon. and gallant Gentleman said that there was no effective surveillance of the Mediterranean. I was pointing out that the Malta base is still open.

Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles: I hope that that will continue to be the case. Will the Minister therefore continue this exchange by assuring the House that surveillance by Nimrods in the Mediterranean will continue whether from Cyprus or from Malta? I am ready to give way to him if he will give that assurance.

Mr. John: The Malta base will close in 1979 at the end of the present agreement, which was negotiated with the hon. and gallant Gentleman's Government.

Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles: I have made my point, and the Minister has reinforced the need for surveillance to continue so that we know what our potential enemies are doing in the Mediterranean.

Mr. W. R. Rees-Davies: Bearing in mind the recent statement by the Foreign Secretary that there is no intention of leaving sovereign base areas in Cyprus, can the Minister assure us that when Malta is closed down we will keep the sovereign bases in Cyprus and Nimrods can operate from there?

Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles: I do not know whether the Minister has anything to say about that.

Mr. Bernard Conlan: Perhaps the hon. and gallant Gentleman will explain how that would contribute to the defence of the United Kingdom.

Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles: The hon. Member for Gateshead, East (Mr. Conlan) was a member of the Expenditure Committee which in its unanimous Third Report said of Akrotiri airfield:
It is indeed a matter for concern that the airfield, formerly the busiest in the RAF, will henceforth be open for only a few hours a day.
The strategic reality is that NATO has another flank which is even more vulnerable—the Cape route and the Indian Ocean. In the years since 1964 the policies of the Labour Party have dismantled British maritime power to vanishing point. British merchant shipping is now totally devoid of any protection at all, except in the North Atlantic, and even there the number of escorts is insufficient. The White Paper says smugly:
By the end of March, the withdrawal from Gan, Mauritius, and Singapore will be complete.
I am pleased to see that the Minister of State has come back into the Chamber, because I want to ask him some specific questions. Who is to take over Gan, and what will happen to the facilities, the runways and all the installations on which a great deal of money has been spent in recent years? What is to stop the Soviets walking in the day after we walk out? Are there any arrangements to alert the Government if they do walk in, or are we going to slink away from it? What is happening to the medical team which has been so helpful in looking after the inhabitants of the neighbouring island? Are they to be withdrawn with the rest of the garrison?
How will alternative communication facilities be provided for those in Mauritius? I imagine that they will go to Diego Garcia, but there is no mention of Diego Garcia in the White Paper.

The Minister of State for Defence (Mr. William Rodgers): The hon. and gallant Gentleman should read the White Paper more carefully.

Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles: I have read it carefully. The index says that there is a reference to Diego Garcia in Chapter 2, paragraph 56, but not a word about Diego Garcia appears in that paragraph. Why are the Government being so coy? I shall "stand easy" while we wait for the Minister.

Mr. Nicholas Winterton: You are right, so carry on.

Mr. Speaker: I have not said a word.

Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles: Your silence is golden, Mr. Speaker, and so is the Minister's.
Singapore is the hub of the eastern hemisphere, not only for defence purposes but as the key to the vast markets of Asia. Only the British Labour Party wishes us to scuttle away from it.
Perhaps the Minister, now that he has examined the White Paper, will agree that there is no reference to Diego Garcia in it. He can therefore now listen to some of my other questions. I want particularly to ask him what has happened to our commitment to SEATO. What has happened to the five-Power pact in Singapore? What about the Australian and New Zealand view of our withdrawal from Singapore? Have they been consulted? They were, after all, our partners.

Mr. Rodgers: I apologise to the hon. and gallant Gentleman, but it took me a long time to find the correct reference. It is in Chapter 1, paragraph 56. If the index of the White Paper is found to be inadequate or in error, we shall correct it for the second edition.

Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles: I am glad that the Minister is now happy. He will now be able to pay attention to answering my questions about what has happened to our commitment to SEATO, the five-Power pact and the views of Australia and New Zealand. What reply has been given to the offer by Mr. Malcolm Fraser of facilities at Cockburn Sound for the Royal Navy?
I turn to the Cape route. The Simons-town agreement was entirely to our advantage and it cost us nothing. I can only hope that the South African Government will, in the long run, be generous enough to overlook the insult of our unilateral abrogation and continue to
make available to us the information from their highly efficient command and control maritime headquarters at Silver-mine. Those who have visited it understand that it is of paramount importance, both in peace and war, to the West as a whole.
As my right hon. Friend the Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Mr. Amery) said yesterday, what is happening in South Africa has changed the whole dimension of the strategic problem that confronts the West. The Government should point out to the newly independent nations of Black Africa that their own future freedom depends upon the security of the trade routes in the seas on both sides of Africa.
I end my speech by referring to hydrography which is a subject which has been debated recently in the House and in the Lords. A resurvey of the vast areas of the oceans all over the world is urgently required, to meet the needs not only of the super-tankers and giant ore carriers with greater draught than previous generations of ships but of oil rigs, both for delivery of the rigs and for their use in exploration.
The Royal Navy hydrographers have a world-wide reputation for skill and accuracy. The Government should use that reputation to build up the hydro-graphic service as an export, contracting it out to other companies and foreign countries if necessary. The White Paper says, at page 46, that:
the defence budget cannot continue to finance the survey fleet beyond the level needed to meet the Royal Navy's own requirements.
That view is far too restrictive. I suggest that the service be transferred to the Trade and Industry Vote. It should be used as a valuable asset in our export drive but still be run by the Royal Navy.
The job of the forces nowadays is to prevent war and not to wage it. The threat to peace is world-wide. My concern is that our defence policy is much too inward-looking. One thing is certain, and always has been; that the British cannot make a living sitting at home and taking in one another's washing.

6.22 p.m.

Mr. Colin Jackson: I hope that the hon. and gallant Member for Winchester (Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles) will not expect


me to join him in his oceanographie survey.
I always find defence debates difficult, because on the one side there are vast distances and on the other side depth is often not obtained. I wish to be brief, and therefore I shall take only two subjects. One is the background topic of exactly why a Communist threat to our defences has come about. There has been a lot of hot air about the subject from the Opposition Benches.
One of the reasons why Communism is powerful in Southern Africa today has been the abominable conduct of the Portuguese political régime in Mozambique and Angola. One of the reasons why there is a Communist Government in Saigon today is the colonial stupidity of the French and the hamfistedness of the Americans. The areas where we have fortunately managed to contain Communism are those where there has been a thoughtful colonial régime with a long period of training of the people.
In Europe we face the fact that the Soviet Union is the last imperialist Power. One needs only to go to Peking to hear that opinion endorsed. The Soviet Union has to maintain a large army in Europe to keep the Czechs down, to keep the Poles under control and to keep the Hungarians from doing again what they did in 1956. It is the massive weight of Soviet imperialism that is the real danger to the Warsaw Pact.
Coming to details of the defence review, I shall confine myself to the Mediterranean. I was interested in the hon. and gallant Gentleman's remarks about the Mediterranean, which will be a difficult and unpredictable area in the next 12 months. He referred to the time when the ruler of Yugoslavia will depart. There is an interesting sub-plot there, because the Albanians are the strongest allies of the Chinese and they will have different views on what should happen in Yugoslavia.
I am sure the hon. and gallant Gentleman has noticed that the Soviet navy is now being forced out of Alexandria. Which way will it move? It has new friendships and relationships with Libya. One must ask whether Soviet power could logistically move along the Mediterranean coast. If it does, it will come dangerously

close to Malta, where we have friends and a British community.
The whole Mediterranean is in a state of flux. Although a limitation must be put on our forces, the European members of NATO will need to be much more alert to the dangers in the Mediterranean, particularly now that the passage of our ships through the Indian Ocean has recommenced.
We are seeing a change of Government in Madrid. We must all welcome the move towards a more liberal situation in Spain, but we must also notice that comments have been made that there will still be hostility towards Gibraltar. The House has responsibility for the defence of Gibraltar, and we must be careful to give no indication that we might be starting an early slide out. That would have the worst possible effect on the ultimate development of good relations between Gibraltar and Spain and on Spain's eventual incorporation within the European family.
The position of the Soviet fleet as it is pushed out of Egypt is important. The question of new political relations, verging on defence relations, between the Arab nations and Europe will be part of our defence consideration in the years to come.
I have often thought that the Russian and American fleets in the Mediterranean were giant obstructions to peace rather than contributions to peace. We are entering a new era, with the Arab world and the Europeans coming together not for hostility but to preserve the area in safety.
I should like to ask a few questions about Cyprus. The area has not been in the news much lately, except for what we have heard of the tragedies of the refugees on both sides. I have had some knowledge of the territory for 20 years or so. I hope that we may be told about housing for our Services in Episkopi and Dhekelia. Are any of our families still outside the zones? I asked last year whether there was some danger, because it had been suggested that some of the properties might have been looted. What problems are we having with our elements in the United Nations peace-keeping force? We have not heard much about that recently.
On television the other night I saw the refugees arriving in Cyprus from the Lebanon. One is also aware of the refugee problem in Cyprus itself.
I have pressed on previous occasions that we should enlarge the United Nations content in the sovereign base areas with the agreement of all the parties concerned. Much humanitarian work could be done. Excellent, urgently-needed hospital facilities are available in Dhekelia. What thought has been given to their use? There are constantly tragedies around the world, and nobody is ready to deal with them. The sovereign base areas, which have excellent facilities and are stable, could be of assistance.
To sum up, we must look not only at Communism but at what causes it—dissatisfaction, hunger and white racialist superiority. In limited areas such as the Mediterranean things are moving fast. There are some interesting changes there. I should like both the Soviet and the American fleets out of the area, but we must be ready to do what we can within our limited facilities to help keep the peace in the area.

6.29 p.m.

Mr. R. Bonner Pink: I hope that the hon. Member for Brighouse and Spenborough (Mr. Jackson) will forgive me if I do not discuss with him in detail his thoughtful and penetrating analysis of the spread of Communism. Today we are concerned with one particular aspect of its spread—that of defence.
I accept that a large part of the Soviet forces are required to hold down vast areas of the satellite States in Europe, but I do not see how the hon. Gentleman can equate that with the large and rapid build-up of the Soviet navy, particularly its nuclear submarines, which could not be used for that purpose.
I listened to almost the whole of yesterday's debate and during it I noticed, particularly from the winding-up speech by the Under-Secretary of State for Defence for the Royal Navy, that the difficulty in which the Government find themselves is not over defence but how to placate their own left wing and to paper over the ever-widening cracks in the Labour Party. What also emerged is how the balance between the various

factions in that party is changing. It is clear from the number who signed the second amendment and the support being given to contenders in another matter that half of the Parliamentary Labour Party are wedded to disarmament, regardless of the risks. I ask those hon. Members to consider what would happen if our defence fell and we lost our sovereignty.
Suppose that we spent the whole of our defence budget on the Welfare State, and suppose that the Warsaw Pact countries moved in—because they are the only people who could possibly want to do so. Do those hon. Members imagine for one minute that we should be allowed to keep the standards of housing, hospitals, education, health and welfare services that we have achieved? Of course not. Our standards would come down to theirs, and we all know that those standards fall very far below even our present standards. All we would achieve in that case would be disaster.
It was said yesterday that the public were beginning to wake up and to question our defence capability, and doubtless the electors will express their concern at the General Election, whether it comes in June, October or later. However, I welcome the Minister's forthright warning on the risks involved in a reduction of our defences. I also welcome his forthright-ness in spelling out in such detail the repercussions on employment from the reductions proposed. I am appalled at the glib complacency of the Government. The figures and diagrams on page 67 of the White Paper underline the dangers and the deficiencies. Instead of strengthening our forces, however, we steadily weaken them. The Government, and at least half of the Labour Party, react only by sticking their heads ever deeper in the sand. The hon. Member for Edinburgh. Central (Mr. Cook) pointed out that other NATO countries were increasing their defences while we were cutting ours. This is a case of "Look at our Willie, he is the only one in step."
Much play was made yesterday of the proportion of our gross national products being spent on defence. The table on page 85 of the White Paper clearly shows one fault in this reasoning: that our productivity per head is abysmally low; and, as one hon. Gentleman so properly pointed out, defence spending cannot


possibly be geared to any arbitrary yardstick. It must be geared to our responsibility. No other NATO country has the problems of Ulster, of the cod war or of North Sea oil that we have. No other country is so dependent on international trade and shipping. No other NATO country is so vitally interested in keeping open, and keeping free, the sea lanes of the world.
Yet the Government get more and more isolationist and are putting all their eggs into the NATO basket—and this at the very time when Russia is maintaining a considerable naval force in the Indian Ocean and we are withdrawing from Gan, Mauritius and Singapore. What surer way could there be to lose the confidence of our friends in those areas? There has been such a run-down of our forces that, according to today's Doily Telegraph, the minor problem, in military terms, of the cod war has forced us to cancel naval exercises in the Indian Ocean. But whilst the commitments to protect shipping remain and the threat grows, we cut our forces. Germany, with some 30 operational submarines in 1939. very nearly brought us to our knees. The Russians have over 300 and are building one new nuclear submarine every five weeks.

Mr. Litterick: On his last point, is the hon. Gentleman suggesting that the Germans fought the Battle of the Atlantic with 30 submarines?

Mr. Pink: I said that the Germans started in 1939 with 30 operational submarines. Of course they built more. I am saying that today Russia has 300 submarines—in round figures 10 times as many—which they could start operating today. We, on the other hand, are reducing not only our fleet but our vital Nimrod reconnaissance aircraft. It is time to realise that although our naval standards are very high, and while our modern frigates may pack more punch than a pre-war battleship, a ship can be in only one place at one time; and however high the standards they cannot always, in every sense, make up for lack of numbers.
Hon. Members have referred to our new commitment to protect our North Sea oil. I presume that the five Island class offshore patrol vessels are for this purpose. I wonder whether we could

have some particulars of these ships—their size, tonnage, speed, endurance, complement and armament—and know whether they are to be manned by the Royal Navy or, as I suggested last year, by civilians. I was interested, too, in the proposition posed by the hon. Member for Argyll (Mr. MacCormick) that Polaris submarines might have to be removed from the Clyde. Can the Minister assure me that if this should occur those Polaris submarines will be stationed at Portsmouth and maintained by Portsmouth Dockyard? In conclusion, I condemn the Government for their smug complacency and for putting the defences of this country at risk.

6.38 p.m.

Miss Jo Richardson: The hon. Member for Portsmouth, South (Mr. Pink) will forgive me if I do not immediately follow his argument, because I should like to go back to the very interesting and thoughtful analysis of my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh, Central (Mr. Cook), who unfortunately has left the Chamber for a few moments, on the reasons for the build-up of Soviet forces, an analysis with which I absolutely agree. It is probably true that that build-up is based on a combination of fear—unnecessary fear, we would hope—a desire to occupy their own people in a way of which nobody in this country would approve, and to blind them to what others can do and want to do.
What worries me about the speeches of some Opposition Members, for example the right hon. Member for Farnham (Mr. Macmillan), is that they seem to be over-sabre rattling, if I may put it that way. Such speeches can prove dangerous because they alarm people outside and produce a clamour, as it were, for a return to a cold war situation which itself can contribute towards the starting up of a conflict. Again, as my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh, Central remarked, the arms race itself and the constant fear by one side that the other has a greater build-up of arms can itself possibly result in setting off a conflict.
I am very worried, as are a number of my hon. Friends on this side, that the Defence Estimates have not shown what I consider to be more realistic cuts and have not reduced our arms spending to a


greater extent, because it seems to me, and I know that it seems to many people in the Labour movement outside this House, to be not reaching our election commitment that we would reduce our contribution to the level of that of other NATO Governments. We are spending money on defence which ought to be spent on urgent social needs.
It seems extraordinary that within the space of a week or two weeks we should discuss defence expenditure and elderly people dying of hypothermia because they cannot afford to pay their gas or electricity bills and these facilities are cut off. We are also plagued by constituents who are caught in the poverty trap. We are worried about the general level of the minimum wage and the fact that people cannot manage on it. We are worried about the large-scale unemployment from which we are suffering. We are worried because we do not have enough schools to provide a decent education for all our children and we are losing talent that way. We are always on about the lack of a forward-looking National Health Service, which at the moment suffers from a lack of money. I could go on endlessly pointing to areas in the social programme where more money is needed to keep up the present standards.
There seems little point in contributing vastly to a NATO defence system which invites attack on Britain. [Interruption.] Hon. Members may laugh. We are a small island in the middle of and in partnership with a number of other countries. I am not a militarist. I am not a military strategist. [An HON. MEMBER: "Obviously."] Obviously. 3ut let us consider the matter from this point of view. I beg hon. Gentlemen opposite to listen seriously. Britain is a small country which is part, and only part, of a total defence system. We are in isolation, being an island.

Mr. Litterick: We are a sitting duck.

Miss Richardson: My hon. Friend, as usual, has the right words for it. We are a sitting duck. If I were the chap in the Soviet Union with his finger on the button, I should say to myself "Let us get rid of Great Britain. It will be short, sharp and quick. It will then be out of the way, and we shall have only the rest

to deal with." That is how it seems to me. That is why I say that our possession of nuclear weapons and our involvement with our NATO partners in this defence system invites attack rather than defence against attack. I believe that our vast contribution to NATO is unwarranted when it is at the expense of the comfort and warmth of elderly people, of men and women who are out of work and of people who are badly housed. The contribution is not worth the sacrifice which we have to make.
I accept that an enormous cut in our defence bill would not overnight solve all our social needs. It would be ridiculous to expect the effect to show right away. However, if we made a much larger cut it would enable us to take a more realistic view of the resultant prospects for industrial expansion and of the chances of a better standard of living.
Some hon. Members have made much about workers' fears regarding unemployment as a result of arms cuts. We all recognise that fear. My hon. Friend the Under-Secretary of State for Defence for the Royal Navy, in his winding-up speech last night—I was not present to hear his speech, but I have read it with great care—said that those who advocate large-scale job losses:
should always have positive, detailed and convincing plans for the constructive redeployment of the human resources involved."—[Official Report, 31st March 1976; Vol. 908. c. 1431.]
I accept that.
I should like the Minister to tell me whether he and his Department, or other Departments, have made an attempt to have a meaningful discussion with workers in some of the arms industries who themselves are making attempts to consider what alternative plans could be made. Sophisticated proposals which have been made should not be tossed off merely because they come from people on the shop floor. Such proposals ought to be taken seriously. I should like to know whether any of those plans have been discussed with or separately from the people who have drawn them up. My guess, regretfully, is that no meaningful discussions have taken place.

Mr. Conlan: Last week I met some shop stewards from a factory in my constituency which manufactures highly sophisticated radar equipment. They


were condemning the Labour Government for forbidding them from exporting their products to South Africa. How does one answer that kind of criticism by workers who want to export their products to South Africa?

Miss Richardson: Their feeling is based purely on fear of losing their jobs. Not every factory has plans worked out on the shop floor for turning to more peaceful production. However, I should be prepared to bet anything that, if those workers had the chance of exporting to some country—not South Africa—products for peaceful use, they would prefer to do that to what they are doing at present. We must consider this situation seriously and try to work it out with the workers concerned. I admire those who have already considered alternative proposals. After all, the people on the shop floor know their machines and what those machines could be used for.
My view on defence and on our membership of NATO is probably not shared by more than a handful of my colleagues, even in the Tribune Group. My hon. Friend the Member for Salford, East (Mr. Allaun) last night said that he started with a handful of supporters on this matter and ended up with over 100. I hope that we shall do the same on the question of NATO. I believe that we should be in a far stronger position in the long run if we announced that we were eventually to withdraw from NATO altogether and were to consider what forces we needed in order to act independently. We should follow the role of Sweden and other countries. That is the role for Britain in future. If we announced our withdrawal from NATO and took advantage of the sophisticated thinking about which I have just been talking in terms of turning our production from arms to peacful products, we would have a chance of getting somewhere.
Furthermore, contrary to what most Opposition Members think, this perhaps startling approach would cut through the proliferation of committees and talks which leave ordinary people in a daze about where we are in world moves towards disarmament. Britain is a party to SALT, to test-ban agreements and to discussion of nuclear non-proliferation, nuclear weapon-free zones, mutual force

reductions and loads of other proposals. Where has it all got us? As my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh, Central said, very often one can believe that the people who are involved in those talks are the wrong people to be discussing the question of disarmament because they have an inbuilt resistance to bringing down the edifice which they have built up.
Our rôle ought to be to ensure that the follow-up to Helsinki should be to try to effect the setting up of a replacement for NATO and the Warsaw Pact—which in my opinion are six of one and half a dozen of the other—to which all European Governments could belong, so as to build up a genuine understanding, because under the present system we cannot be independent and we cannot make our voice heard. We trail, as always, behind the United States.
Two hon. Gentlemen this evening have mentioned Cyprus in different contexts. I want to mention Cyprus, but in a third context. The United Kingdom is a signatory to guarantees over Cyprus. What now is to be our attitude to the new Turkish-American defence agreement, which may well ensure that the formerly independent island of Cyprus, where Greeks and Turks lived peaceably side by side, may not get the chance, because of this new arms agreement, to return to its independence? Are we to be able to object or must we, because of our partnership in NATO, take lying down what the United States does and, therefore, retreat from our obligations to Cyprus?
I repeat that I would have preferred a much greater cut in our defence spending and a much greater positive step towards independent thinking of our defence policy and in our foreign policy. I hope that we shall go on and gather strength on this side and that eventually our own Front Bench will come to see the sense of what we are saying.

6.53 p.m.

Mr. John Biggs-Davison: In his consultative paper of 1972 on the future of Northern Ireland my right hon. Friend the Member for Penrith and The Border (Mr. Whitelaw) defined "three major concerns" of the


British Government in that tortured Province. The third was
that Northern Ireland should not offer a base for any external threat to the security of the United Kingdom".
The hon. Lady the Member for Barking (Miss Richardson) wants cuts and more cuts and she wants our withdrawal from NATO at a time when Soviet naval striking forces infest the coasts of Northern Europe and threaten our communications with North America, and one presumed object of those Soviet warships is the neutralisation of the sea-borne nuclear deterrent of the United States.
Shall we one day see Soviet warships in Lough Foyle? Only, I think, if the sort of doctrine the hon. Lady advocates were to prevail or if the "troops out" movement were to succeed in its squalid agitation and the Government were to weaken and surrender to anarchy what have again become what Churchill described as
the sentinel towers of the Western Approaches.
The Under-Secretary paid tribute to the young soldiers recently fallen in County Armagh and Craigavon, and no words can do justice to the professional skill, patient constancy and chivalrous restraint of the Regular soldiers, the Ulster Defence Regiment and the Royal Marines in Northern Ireland. Nor should we forget to acknowledge the vigilance of Her Majesty's ships and aircraft in the Ulster seas and skies.
On this side of the House we have repeatedly pledged support to the Government for all-out war on all terrorists whatever cause or colour they use to hide their criminal and sometimes highly profitable activities. At the same time, the Opposition have the duty to criticise what they have considered at times to be a flabby political direction of operations. There is legally no state of war and one understands that excessive military response to terrorist challenge can estrange those we seek to liberate from the reign of terror, whether in South Armagh or the housing estates of Belfast and Londonderry. Subtlety must march with strength. But after many tours of the Province, the latest just concluded, I regret that I am still looking for evidence of a comprehensive operational plan.
It does not appear that victory is being organised in Northern Ireland with the same continuity, co-ordination and drive that eventually prevailed in, for example, Malaya under Templar. Northern Ireland is not a colony; it is part of the homeland, so one would have expected an assault upon lawful authority and civilised society there to have been met with clearer and firmer political direction.
This war—and I am using the word loosely—is an intelligence war. It has been said that a conventional war is a war in which one is concerned to fight the enemy, but in this sort of war one is concerned to find the enemy.
Subtract the phrase-mongering and sabre-rattling of the Prime Minister and one must acclaim his decision to dispatch the SAS to the "special emergency area" of South Armagh. Someone down there said to me that he had never seen the SAS. That is just as well, but to judge by Republican leaflets I have seen distributed around Bessbrook and Cross-maglen the SAS is held in healthy respect. Particularly in the border area, a permanent intelligence base is all-important.
But I wonder—and I do not expect an answer on the Floor of the House—how intimate is the partnership of all the intelligence gatherers, the military, the CID and the Special Branch. If there is, as I believe, a case for a permanent intelligence base, is there perhaps a case also for a more permanent structure of operational command?
The Royal Ulster Constabulary has police functions, functions which are distinct from security work, although it is also involved in security work. But I find it surprising that in a given police division and brigade area there are no combined operations rooms for the security forces as a whole. The criticism is often heard in Northern Ireland that the population, including sections from whom one expects leadership in times of trouble, is insufficiently involved in the defence of Ulster.
I wish that the defence White Paper had said more about the Ulster Defence Regiment. It merits more publicity; it should be better known. It has an admirable magazine called Defence but the media are slow to present in human terms the public spirit and sheer cold courage of the men and women who sacrifice their


leisure and sometimes their lives, and I would make particular mention of the Roman Catholic members, who stand up to very special intimidation.
We on this side renew our long-standing proposal, which we have been making for years now, for a full-time company in each UDR battalion. It is often suggested that more of the officers seconded from the Regular Army to the UDR should have Northern Ireland experience. Whether or not it is right to exclude the Irish Guards and Irish regiments of the line from Service in Northern Ireland, officers from such units may well be suitable for secondment to the UDR. I also wonder whether we could have any figures showing how many Ulster territorials have availed themselves of the option of serving with the UDR, although it is understood that Territorial units in Northern Ireland cannot be used for security duties.
Is the Ministry of Defence satisfied with the number of troops in Northern Ireland? The statistics for January and February indicate no lessening of the various forms of political and criminal violence. Then one is forced to ask the question which has been asked already—where are the reserves? That is one of the grounds on which we condemn the defence White Paper.
It is a poor compliment to our soldiers to dismiss the Provisional IRA as merely a Mafia of psychopaths, criminals and hooligans. The Provos are one of the most experienced terrorist groups in the world. They make sophisticated use for their propaganda of our pliant sensation-seeking media. Yet their defeat is inevitable now that Dublin has determined to destroy them, always provided that we in Britain will it. The attitude of Sir Robert Mark to the Balcombe Street gang was correct. He said that they were going nowhere. Other revolutionary guerrillas have prevailed where they have enjoyed or extorted the support or acquiescence of a mass population. But the IRA is today utterly rejected in every poll and election on both sides of the Irish border.
What, however, gives hope from time to time to the violent and tempts the law-abiding to despair are such manifestations of weakness as the purposeless parleys

with the political wings of para-military organisations——

Mr. Litterick: On a point of order, Mr. Deputy Speaker. I have been listening carefully to the hon. Gentleman's speech, and I find it very difficult to discover its relevance to the subject of this debate—namely, the White Paper "Statement on the Defence Estimates".

Mr. Deputy Speaker (Mr. Oscar Murton): I think that we must allow the hon. Member for Epping Forest (Mr. Biggs-Davison) to develop his argument in his own way.

Mr. Biggs-Davison: I was devoting my few remarks, which I am about to conclude, to the only theatre in which Her Majesty's Forces are fighting. That surely is relevant to this debate. It is the only theatre in which members of Her Majesty's Forces are laying down their lives, and it is highly relevant.
There is no room for negotiation between those who stand for the Union and those who demand capitulation. Any ministerial equivocation can only damage morale and destroy confidence in Northern Ireland. It is resented in Dublin, where people understand such matters. It is an affront to the nation and to the men in the Services who make such sacrifices on our behalf.

7.4 p.m.

Mr. Bruce George: The Secretary of State for Defence has an unenviable task. He faces an Opposition who maintain vehemently that this Government's actions are endangering national defence and jeopardising the Alliance. Behind him, there are those who claim that what the Government are doing is in flagrant breach of the manifesto, and they are diverting scarce resources away from more deserving areas and that, far from cutting expenditure, they are increasing it. But if pressures inside this House are intense, I suspect that the pressures to which my right hon. Friend is exposed outside are infinitely greater.
The level of defence expenditure in this country, as in any other country, appears to be a function of the perception of the extent and form of the external threat. There are some who see the threat and over-react. There are others who under-react. The Government have the task of


striking a balance and of asking themselves at what level expenditure should be pitched in the national and international circumstances prevailing at that time.
If the Government gauge too high and we have "too much defence", there will be a waste of resources and society will suffer an unnecessary loss of living standards. If they gauge too low, the consequences can be disastrous.
It is probable that we have now reached a level where any further substantial cuts would be injurious to our Alliance. Politically, we have our defence expenditure as low as we can get away with in terms of our international obligations. But, arguably, the level of expenditure is too high to be sustained by our present economy. For that reason, a political and an economic judgment has to be made and a balance has to be struck.
In a democracy, taxpayers do not want to keep on spending large sums of money on armed forces unless they can perceive a threat, and the fact is that, despite the efforts of certain people, Europeans patently do not feel threatened.
These have been good years, despite occasional dangers and flare-ups throughout the world. If one contrasts the time now with the days of the cold war, these have been years of relative peace. When we live in times of inflation and industrial stagnation, internal considerations are paramount and people see far more value to be gained from spending scarce resources on health and welfare. Top priority is not given to defence by many people. In those circumstances, if we are not to increase expenditure I hope that we can get better value for money. I think that the White Paper is a step in this direction.
The military and certain politicians in the free world—and in the unfree world—have a vested interest in magnifying the threat posed by their opponents. Any militarist seeking money will ensure that the public feel that the enemy they face is 25 ft. high. If we live in circumstances where there is no obvious and real threat, one has to be erected.
There is cause for concern, and in a lucid way my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State explained yesterday what

these dangers to the Western Alliance were. Those who howl and cry that very soon we shall have Admiral Gorshkov arriving up the Thames have to ask themselves whether what they are going is not counter-productive. They may be helping to create an inferiority complex which can be far more damaging, and that is what has been happening.
There must be a public debate, and I welcome it. But this debate must take place in a rational arena and not in a hysterical one. We should not be stampeded and terrified into vast armaments programmes, and neither should we be stampeded into abandoning what defence we have at the moment.
Many fears have been raised. Perhaps Lord Chalfont epitomised them in a recent article in The Times with a diagram indicating a rather modern version of the Schlieffen plan, with arrows centering on the heart of Europe from the East. His argument is that the Western Alliance is so weak that it is becoming more and more attractive to Soviet planners to think about piercing these defences and destroying our military capabilities.
I believe, further, that there are many people who fear that the Government are letting down our Western Allies. We are told of the enormous threat posed by the Warsaw Pact with its economic and military strength, and time and time again we are told about the weakness of the NATO Alliance. We must try to strip away from the debate the propaganda and the value judgments.
A number of sophisticated arguments have been advanced indicating that the threat is not as considerable as some Opposition Members make out. On the other hand, I do not wish to give the impression that I, like the Government, regard the present situation with any complacency.
NATO is not about to be struck a mortal blow. I refer to a recent article in a journal called NATO Review by the Defence Correspondent of the Economist, James Meacham. Neither the Economist nor the NATO Review is regarded as a subversive piece of literature. Mr. Meacham's article, published October 1975, was headed
Weakness of the central front but not a case for major surgery".


He said:
NATO today could probably fight the Warsaw Pact to a standstill in a conventional war in Central Europe. Its forces are large enough, although not as large as they should be; its equipment is better, although not as good as it should be for the money that is spent on it; and its disposition is at least adequate, if not ideal…Although the Warsaw Pact's numerical superiority is clear, it is by no means overwhelming. If it should succeed in concentrating a superior force, say 3 or 4 to 1, in a small area, it could very likely achieve breakthrough. But presumably NATO commanders would be doing something to redress the balance. NATO's equipment is, by and large, a lot better than the Warsaw Pact's.
We do not need to match the Soviets soldier for soldier or tank for tank. We are already operating within a defensive situation and do not, therefore, require parity of forces.
The article is far from complacent and its conclusion points to the fact that, if we over-emphasise the weakness, or the perceived weakness, of the central front, it
Will cause despair and an even greater reliance on nuclear weapons instead of encouraging improvements along the front that would make the Alliance's conventional forces into a major deterrent.
One can go to another source, namely James Schlesinger, the Secretary for Defence, in the annual Defence Department report published last year, again an objective analysis, in which he says:
As matters now stand NATO has the capability and the resources to attain a more equal balance with the Pact even though it deploys a smaller number of divisions and certain serious vulnerabilities that we are working to correct.
When he looks at the naval situation, he says—bearing in mind some hon. Members' fears of the Soviet naval buildup:
…if our naval modernisation programmes are approved by the Congress, I am reasonably confident that the United States, together with its allies, will remain able to defend the essential sea lanes in the Atlantic and Pacific, project power ashore under a wide range of circumstances, continue a strong deployed naval presence, and maintain the necessary maritime balance with the Soviet Union and its clients.
There are other examples indicating that the situation is not as horrific as some hon. Members maintain. I should like to quote, as has been done by my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh, Central (Mr. Cook), another unbiased journal The Military Balance, published by the Institute of Strategic Studies. It emphasises the point I am making. If

we are deficient in terms of front-line forces, I hardly think that there will be a sudden attack without warning as a result of NATO's spy network or an air reconnaissance. Clearly warning will be given, known as "political warning time", and any deficiency there may be can easily be remedied by a deployment of reserve forces.
The book talks about differences in ground formation, manpower, reinforcements and equipment, but these are not insurmountable. It says:
First, the overall balance is such as to make military aggression appear unattractive. The defences are of such a size and quality that any attempt to breach them would require major attack. The consequences for an attacker would be incalculable, and the risks, including that of nuclear escalation, must impose caution.…NATO has emphasised quality, particularly in equipment and training, to offset numbers".
Clearly there are numerous instances which could have been cited which indicate that the Western defence system is adequate to meet the demands placed upon it. Indeed there are difficulties, but nevertheless it is obvious that the West is not badly overmatched. There is no reason to assume that the analysis of Lord Chalfont about Soviet forces piercing their way into Europe is a realistic scenario.
One must recognise that the Soviet forces are being built up, as, indeed, are Western forces, but one must not be panicked. Let us look at this from the other side of the coin. We are used to referring in this House to the strength of the Warsaw Pact, but we spend less time looking at its weaknesses. The Warsaw Pact countries and the Soviet citizens will probably be looking less at NATO's weaknesses than at its strengths, and, indeed, it is a formidable strength despite the differences between members of the Alliance, despite the different historical traditions and despite the fact that over the last centuries we have been fighting each other. Despite internal problems, the Alliance has held together and, indeed, America has had no need to invade Western Europe as the Soviet Union had to invade Hungary and Czechoslovakia to maintain the alliance's unity.
Despite the strains placed upon it, there has been no major war and the Alliance has held secure. Many argue the need for increased conventional forces and,


quite clearly, the larger the conventional forces the slower will be the escalation. Conversely, the smaller the conventional forces the quicker might be the climb to a form of mass annihilation.
I believe that there is a third way of looking at the current situation. That is that the Western Alliance is a powerful alliance possessing numerous destructive capabilities and the power to destroy an enemy, real or imagined, time and time again. I believe we should not assume that the Warsaw Pact is insuperable and that the Western Alliance is crumbling and that, therefore, we need to inject vast additional resources to prop up the system and maintain parity. I believe that the strength of the Western Alliance is considerable. One must bear this constantly in mind and not appear defeatist or alarmist.
I remember travelling to Berlin by aircraft, looking out and seeing the low land and saying how easy it was for Napoleon to go from France into Russia. Quite clearly, the Soviet Union throughout its history feels threatened not by the West alone but by China. What if Ronald Reagan becomes President? What if, God forbid, the Leader of the Opposition is the next Prime Minister? What if the Christian Democrats come to power in West Germany? There are other circumstances which might force the Russians to realise that they need to maintain parity.
Let us not forget—it appears to have been forgotten in this debate—about détente. Just because Gerald Ford decides to drop the word does not mean that we should forget what progress has been made. The alternative to détente is a return to the cold war. There has been progress. There has been no major confrontation between the NATO forces and the Warsaw Pact. Let us not forget about the progress which has taken place in the SALT negotiations, the MBFR negotiations and the negotiations at the Helsinki Conference. There is a much better chance of a reduction in forces now that we have reached a situation of equilibrium.
The hon. Member for Ayr (Mr. Younger) said in a lecture to the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies:

We have taken it more or less for granted for years that the military balance of power would certainly be to the advantage of the West".
We have in the past had an enormous superiority. The Russians, for their own reason, wish to close that gap. There is no God-given reason why we should expect to maintain this great military superiority over the Soviet Union. I believe that we have now reached a position of parity. We now have an opportunity to start force reductions, which is much better in this situation from a position of strength than from a position of inferiority.
In conclusion, I look forward to the day when the NATO Alliance and the Warsaw Pact will be rendered superfluous. I regret that in the immediate future this is likely to be an impossible dream, and until that dawn arises I hope that the efforts of our Government in maintaining our defence and in maintaining their Alliance with NATO, upon which our futures depend, will continue. It is only, regrettably, as a result of military alliances and parity between them that we are likely to see the general folly of our ways and bring about a reduction of forces and disarmament which can bring nothing but benefit to ordinary working people.

7.20 p.m.

Mr. Geoffrey Pattie: I am very grateful for having caught your eye, Mr. Deputy Speaker, having sat through the debate yesterday when many were chosen but few were called. I hope that the hon. Member for Walsall, South (Mr. George) will forgive me if I do not follow his argument too closely, save to say that many hon. Members, probably on both sides, tend to make the mistake in defence debates of looking entirely at the numbers game instead of considering the composition and the mix of the Soviet Union's forces. I would refer him in this context to the speech of his hon. Friend the Member for Southampton, Itchen (Mr. Mitchell) about the production of Soviet submarines and similar naval vessels.
The White Paper identifies the threat as correctly as its predecessor did a year ago. The Government still stoutly maintain that they are keeping up their contribution to NATO. The rhetoric may still be there, but it seems to be diverging


from reality. The White Paper says on page 9:
It is, therefore, NATO's strategy, if deterrence fails, to meet aggression with a defence tailored to the situation, selecting a suitable level of response from a wide range of options to restore the territorial and maritime integrity of the Alliance. The knowledge that NATO has a realistic strategy of this kind is itself an important element in deterrence.
I hope that the Russians find that as convincing as some of us find it unconvincing.
The Under-Secretary today spent a good deal of time demolishing the credibility of the article produced by a Belgian brigadier, on which a piece appeared in The Times. It is true that that paper was written some years ago and was meant as a treatise for an intellectual group. But what the Minister did not mention is that the German General Johannes Steinhoff, not some years ago but in the past few weeks, produced a book substantially confirming that diagnosis.
The significance of General Steinhoff's book, which has been serialised in Die Welt, is not so much that it confirms the speed and depth of a possible Soviet thrust but rather that it asks what NATO will do to meet the challenge. He says that if NATO wants to reduce the nuclear risk,
…they must be ready to fight a long conventional war, and provide the necessary numbers of well-trained and equipped ready troops stationed close to the frontier, together with adequate reserves. If, for economy reasons, they are not prepared to do this, they must accept that the only alternative is to be ready to make early use of nuclear weapons—with all the necessary arrangements for rapid and unanimous decisions.
What he is saying is that, at the moment, we are doing neither.
In these days of economic difficulties, any White Paper obviously has a lot to do with expenditure. Every hon. Member who wants to see any defence expenditure at all wants to see the best possible value for the money we spend. On this point I should have no problem with the rationalisation of defence research establishments set out in the White Paper. Some of them have become rather over-established in recent years.
On the question of major force improvements, I note with interest that the Army is likely to receive in the forthcoming year an armoured bridge-laying

and recovery vehicle based on the Chieftain tank. Anyone who takes an interest in the findings of the Public Accounts Committee might care to read the cautionary history of the Chieftain tank engine and the bulldozer kit attached to the Chieftain tank, which took eight years to get into service. The engine had to be designed to fit the hole left for it after the hull had been constructed out of phase with the engine itself. If that kind of thing is to go on, the Russians have nothing to fear.
One notices also that we are reducing our number of mine counter-measure vessels at the very time when the Russians are increasing their mine-laying capacity. Several people who are expert in these matters feel that the Soviet Union in future hostilities may try to bottle up our forces in various ports. It would seem to be foolish to be reducing our mine counter-measure forces at this stage, therefore.
My hon. Friend the Member for Woking (Mr. Onslow) spoke about the memorandum of understanding. The Minister of State will know the interest that I take in equipment matters. As equipment is more than a third of the budget, we should make some reference to it in this debate. I understand that the memorandum of understanding which was signed last September following the Harpoon purchase has identified 13 projects in Britain and a further 37 in the rest of Europe, but that this list has not yet been made known to British industrialists.
Will that list be circulated, particularly since the Secretary of State supports the NATO Industrialist Advisory Group, which has recently set up a body parallel to the European Programme Group, which, as the White Paper says, has been established in Rome on 1st and 2nd February this year? The Government must accept the importance of, and put still greater emphasis on, European industrial co-operation. We shall not be able to do so if we allow the United States to make a series of separate bilateral memoranda of understanding under which they can then play off one European nation against another. That can have unfortunate consequences.
My hon. Friends will be relieved to know that I shall not detain them too


long by launching into a great treatise on standardisation, because we all know that the case has been made and accepted in most quarters. But it is another thing if we are to be the nation which makes a series of empty gestures in favour of specific items of standardisation ahead of any specified agreement with our European partners. Above all, it would be nothing short of deplorable for any Government to enter any purchase agreement without adequate reciprocal purchases being agreed at the time that the purchase is made.
I still feel that I have to accuse this Government of absurd naivety in cancelling the British under-sea guided weapon before they entered negotiations to buy the United States Sub-Harpoon weapon. The offset arrangements mentioned on that occasion and many times since tend to include such things as the Harrier project, which have a curious habit of turning up again and again when the United States wishes to give examples of its readiness to buy from the United Kingdom. At the time of the Harpoon agreement the Minister of State, I think, gave the news to the House that the Franco-German Milan anti-tank missile had been purchased.
I was very glad that the Secretary of State, who, I am glad to see, has joined us again, included in the Milan agreement the phrase, "if the terms are right". Does he still think that the terms are right in view of the subsequent escalation of the price from the French?
We had an exchange earlier today on the AWACS, but in the interests of time I shall not go over it again. I am totally unconvinced that this system will be worth the huge amount that we shall be called upon to pay, particularly when the Germans are reluctant to enter this programme and we are developing our own programme.
Any defence review will necessarily be largely involved with matters of detail. When we pass from the broad strategy we come to a series of detailed matters. I shall briefly refer to a few of the details.
In page 50 of the White Paper we read of the new offshore patrol vessels that are on order. By no means am I the first person to point to offshore

protection as being a vital matter for the future. It is vital for our oil rigs, and it is also vital if we are to take out 200-mile zones. I am concerned that we may have ordered vessels that are not fast enough to do the job. I am concerned about whether they are carrying the proper sort of equipment.
Is the Minister of State able to assure the House that the protection vessels will be quick enough for patrolling and policing work and offshore protection? Will they have helicopter-carrying capacity? Lighter vessels are now under development that carry helicopters. The Minister of State does not need me to tell him that a helicopter with a missile-carrying capacity on a very fast small boat would be a potent defence measure for offshore facilities.
In page 46 we read about the Hydrography Service. It seems that the Government cannot continue to finance the survey fleet beyond the immediate requirements of the Royal Navy. There is an important point of principle which is linked, although not in a geographical sense, with the provision of the Gurkha brigade in Brunei. If a foreign Power is prepared to pay for one of our Services I very much hope that we shall maintain it and receive the money.
I thought that yesterday the Secretary of State made a rather misleading remark—I am sure that he did not do so deliberately—about the TAVR. The right hon. Gentleman spoke of 250,000 reservists who are to be drawn upon for essential tasks. That is the sort of remark that is guaranteed to bring a warm glow of comfort to those outside the Chamber. In a period of rapidly changing technological skills. I wonder how well trained those people can be. Probably many of them have not been in uniform for some considerable time. The figure to which the right hon. Gentleman refers needs examining.
In the TAVR there are what are known as sponsor units. I am not certain about the origin of the word "sponsor". The units consist of those who are employed on specialised logistic works. The House may not be aware that the establishment of officers on 1st April 1975 was 1,267 and that the strength was 1,104. The establishment of other ranks was 9,490 and the strength was 5,730.
I hope that the Government will give the necessary encouragement to recruiting up to full strength the skilled and essential people to operate in the sponsored units. They are the people who will have to go at short notice to BAOR in the event of an outbreak of hostilities, whether or not the atack is a surprise attack. Clearly, we should not have long to reinforce the front line.
There is now a need for a long period of consolidation and stability that will give the opportunity for the defence forces to increase their efficiency and moral.

7.35 p.m.

Mr. John Carson: I hope that the hon. Member for Chertsey and Walton (Mr. Pattie) will forgive me if I do not take up his observations.
I welcome the opportunity to make a brief contribution to this debate. Proportionately, Northern Ireland has suffered more from the closing of maintenance establishments than any other area of the United Kingdom. However, I do not wish to debate that issue as my hon. Friends and I have already expressed our views in a previous debate. Northern Ireland has lost over 2,000 skilled jobs.
I find it hard to reconcile the views of the hon. Member for Belfast, West (Mr. Fitt) about the redundancies that have resulted from the closures with his decision to join 82 hon. Members in an amendment that demands even greater defence cuts. I hope that the people and the trade union movement of Northern Ireland can understand his actions. I find it extremely difficult to accept them.
Although we shall be unable to support the Government motion because of the effect of the Governmen's policy in Northern Ireland, we give an extremely warm welcome to its concluding remarks—namely:
thereby maintaining the British contribution to NATO, the security and territorial integrity of the United Kingdom
and, most important of all,
and peace in Northern Ireland.
It is seldom that the Government make a statement that we so fully support and endorse.
I condemn the murders of the three soldiers in Northern Ireland last night. I express my deep sympathy for the

families who have been bereaved, and I offer them my prayers. As for the fourth soldier who was so seriously injured, we wish and pray for a speedy recovery.
I remind the House that the vice-president of the Provisional IRA, Mrs. Maire Drumm, is just as guilty of the murders of the three British soldiers in South Armagh as the man who laid the landmine. Mrs. Drumm, a woman who calls herself a mother, has the blood on her hands of the sons of mothers and the fathers of young children.
I dissociate myself from the members of political groups, irrespective of which part of the community they come from, who question the integrity and ability of the soldiers serving in Northern Ireland. I congratulate them and pay tribute to the tremendous task that they carry out. I congratulate all the security forces now operating in Northern Ireland.
I shall concentrate a few remarks on the Ulster Defence Regiment. I am delighted to see that the Government have paid tribute to the regiment in Chapter IV, paragraph 4. The paragraph reads:
The part-time Ulster Defence Regiment continues to play a full and active part in operations in Northern Ireland and has had an encouraging number of successes in recent months.…The Regiment will remain a vital part of the Security Forces in Northern Ireland for the foreseeable future.
I thank the Government for the compliment that they have paid to the regiment.
Recently I was rather saddened by a reply that was made by the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to a question about the Ulster Defence Regiment. I know that the right hon. Gentleman did not really mean what he said.
The Secretary of State said in February:
The GOC has the right to deploy his forces where he wills, but it would be wrong to deploy the UDR in some Catholic areas, because of the sectarian break-down of the UDR That is no criticism of the UDR."—[Official Report, 19th February 1976; Vol. 905, c. 1471.]
Unfortunately, some people in Northern Ireland, including members of the UDR, got the impression that he was implying that the regiment was a sectarian force. I do not believe for one second that he meant to refer to it in that way and I should like the record to be put straight so that the people of Northern Ireland may realise the UDR is not a sectarian force.
I pay tribute to those members of the minority who have joined the regiment. I urge others to join if they want Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom and to help achieve justice, peace and stability for all.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell) said in a very able speech, as usual, last month:
The whole operation has to be seen less as a military operation than as a police operation, and increasingly the UDR and the Army must be part of a strategy which is a police strategy because it is based upon tapping those resources and using those tactics which are essentially police resources and police tactics."—[Official Report, 25th March 1976; Vol. 908, c. 702.]
I appeal to the Minister to consider attaching a full-time company of the UDR to every battalion in Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland is a small Principality of only 1½ million people, but it is a large area and I do not have to tell hon. Members about the length of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic and the difficulty security forces have, with the numbers at their disposal, to guard the border and be in every other part of Northern Ireland as well. The establishment of full-time companies of the UDR would strengthen the hard-worked security forces and the RUC. When serious rioting or other emergencies occurred, these full-time companies would be able to assist in the operations of the security forces.
Most important of all, it is essential to have a full-time company of the UDR in the border areas where much of the terrorist activity is now taking place.

7.44 p.m.

Mr. Tom Litterick: I regret that the Statement on the Defence Estimates, instead of reducing the current arms bill, in fact increases it, that it abandons Labour's election commitment to reduce the proportion of the gross national product devoted to arms to the level of the other European NATO Governments, and that it diverts money and resources which are urgently needed for housing, health social services and the re-equipment of industry.
The Secretary of State advised us yesterday that he was saving £470 million on projected expenditure this year. If the public were inclined to read his

remarks or listen to his remarks carelessly, they might have overlooked the word "projected". He was talking about future planned increases in armaments expenditure and not absolute reductions in defence expenditure.
At the risk of boring the House a little more, I must quote from the expenditure estimates we debated only two weeks ago. In the table 4(1) on page 132 of the Statement we are told that armaments expenditure for 1974–75 was £5,151 million, that for 1975–76 it would be £5,403 million, for 1976–77 £5,492 million, for 1977–78 £5,535 million, for 1978–79 £5,559 million and for 1979–80 £5,627 million. These figures are all stated in common terms so they are directly comparable. They represent a continually increasing level of defence expenditure for the rest of the decade—no cuts.
This is disappointing. At least the Government are not planning to increase defence expenditure by very much, but this is a long way from saying they are cutting defence expenditure; they are not.
The basis of our policy was the average proportion of GNP being spent by other members of NATO in Western Europe on defence. This figure will not be achieved by the end of the decade.
Hon. Members will have noticed that the tendency is for our GNP not to increase, but to contract. The apparent stability of our defence expenditure in absolute terms actually represents an increasing proportion of GNP. I said in the last defence debate that this would happen and it has come to pass.
My constituents, many of whom live in blighted, run-down areas and who have been waiting for years for many different kinds of social expenditure to alleviate the conditions in which they live, in places like Stirchley and Bournbrook in Selly Oak will derive no pleasure from these Estimates because they are being asked to sustain a wholly unrealistic burden of armaments expenditure while enduring unprecedented cuts in social expenditure. They will also note that the Conservative Party advocates further cuts in social expenditure and further increases in defence expenditure. They know there is a trade-off going on in inflation and unemployment and in arms expenditure


and social expenditure. They are quite capable of making the right kind of judgment. They know what armaments are for: they are for killing people and destroying their houses. They know that social expenditure is for schools, houses, roads, social security and so on.
Like many of my hon. Friends, hundreds of thousands of people within the Labour Party and millions who voted for the Labour Government, I was looking for a significant reduction in absolute terms in armaments expenditure. It is not good enough for the Government to plead in self-defence that we are unrealistic. That commitment was explicitly entered into by the Labour Party. It does not matter how my hon. and right hon. Friends on the Front Bench wrap it up: the commitment framed in terms of the gross national product relationship is not being met.
The Government say in their defence that the cuts which we demand would cause unemployment. As my hon. Friend the Member for Barking (Miss Richardson) said, other voices outside the House are replying to that argument. I commend to my right hon. Friends the propositions put forward by the workers of Lucas Aerospace who have worked out an armaments substitute production strategy in which workers use their sophisticated skills to produce useful articles which do not threaten anyone, thus maintaining work and sensible economic activity in place of a destructive, wasteful and wholly inflationary economic activity.
Unfortunately, in spite of the widespread use of the current cant word "participation", no one wants to listen to embarrassing policy statements such as those which have emerged from the workers of Lucas Aerospace, because the paranoia which underlies our arms strategy might be challenged by the voice of sanity, peace and hope for the rest of humanity.
My hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh, Central (Mr. Cook) dealt a blow to the basically irrational fears of the "boom-boom" politicians who are strong on the Opposition Benches. They are happy only when they know that more guns are being made and more soldiers are being placed at the ready to frighten someone else and thus their irrational fears will be justified. My

hon. Friend offered facts from impeccable sources. He said that references to the colossal, monolithic, frightening, overwhelming superiority of the arms held by the Russians were not true. I would like to add my small mite of fact by quoting the persuasive authority of General George S. Brown, the chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, who recently said:
in Northern, Central and Southern Europe national ground forces were for NATO 1·78 million and for the Warsaw Pact countries 1·62 million.
That statement, made by a senior American military authority, runs counter to the panic-mongering speeches made by speaker after speaker on the Opposition Benches.
To his credit, the Secretary of State is convinced that no one in official circles really believes that the Russians are imminently coming. So many years after the war it is of some comfort that someone in official life is not prepared to be wholly panicked out of his wits.

Mr. Hamish Watt: Does not the hon. Gentleman agree that we can draw some comfort from the fact that the Russians are short of food and that any nation that cannot feed itself must think twice before going to war with anyone?

Mr. Litterick: I find it difficult to draw comfort from the fact that anyone is short of food. That an hon. Member can derive comfort from such a fact is bleakly disappointing.
The right hon. Member for Stafford and Stone (Mr. Fraser) said that the significance of the battle tank in modern warfare was declining rapidly and that the lesson of the Yom Kippur war was that the tank was on the way out. I agree with him. The American experience in Vietnam also suggests that the infantryman has come back into his own. That war taught the Americans the modern infantryman's capability to withstand a colossal onslaught by advanced technology and to come up shooting at the end. The Vietnam war was won by the infantry. A country which relies on battle tanks as its main weapon is relying on obsolete technology and is doing what States and military establishments so often do—planning for the last war That is invariably a mistake.
The Secretary of State informs us that one of the areas of massive superiority of NATO forces is in anti-tank weaponry. I am much encouraged by that. Our superiority over the Russians in antitank weaponry is in the ratio of two to one. That makes sense. I only wish that we would contemplate reducing our tank forces quickly, because they are so vulnerable to well-equipped infantrymen.
I am informed that the Russians' commitment to armour is more than double ours. The NATO armour is about 6,000 units and the Russians' is about 15,000 units. By the standard of cavalry generals, who are so devoted to tanks, these 15,000 units are obsolete. The former Head of Defence Intelligence, General Daniel Graham, for example, talking about the standard Russian battle tank, the T-62, says:
The T-62 is really a T-54 tank [first manufactured in 1948] that has been modified a little here and a little there.…It has the same engine in it that the Soviets had in their tanks in World War II. There are some drawbacks to that. It isn't a powerful enough engine. Our tank does outrange their tank. I have been in a T-62 and it has a very cramped turret, and you have to be a left-handed midget because you have to load the darn thing from the wrong side of the breech. And you have to be about my size. If they run out of left-handed midgets in the Soviet Union, they are going to be in big trouble with the T-62.
That does not sound like the colossal tank army that is to grind across Europe crushing everything before it. I cannot imagine all those little left-handed midgets making lightning thrusts across Europe.
I am sure that the Russians tell their people that their tanks are marvellous and invincible. That is the rhetoric of this kind of lunacy. It is commonly used and it goes like this: "Your tanks, your equipment, your bolts, are the biggest and the best and they will frighten the hell out of everybody else." They frighten the hell out of me. But generals, military people, get seized with a strange conviction about their weapons, as if they were talking about their sexual equipment: they just have to be believed by everybody else; what they have is bound to frighten everybody else.
If we look at it in terms of cost effectiveness, a big tank against a well-armed infantryman, there is no comparison—

none at all. A well-armed infantryman can be equipped with a deadly anti-tank weapon costing less than £20,000 and can easily, without being seen by his victim, the tank, kill it with one shot. That is the nature of modern technology. It has rendered obsolete yet another Leviathan. If we push our luck with tanks, we shall be trundling into war with useless scrap iron which will be a sitting target for every well-trained infantryman who cannot be got at by the monster.
The danger to peace is heightened with every incremental increase in arms expenditure, because every increase in arms expenditure has to be justified in rhetorical terms. It is always justified in terms of what the other person is supposed to be doing. We always, unfortunately, find out too late what the other person is doing and not doing.
We should not mislead ourselves. The debate so far, with one or two exceptions, has not been well-informed. It has been a debate in which we have sought to comfort one another in our illusions and our ignorance. Worst of all, we have sought to indulge a kind of chauvinism which I thought we had outlived many years ago.

Mr. Deputy Speaker: I remind the House that time moves on.

8.2 p.m.

Mr. Stephen Hastings: Many of us will welcome the unstinted enthusiasm of the hon. Member for Birmingham, Selly Oak (Mr. Litterick) for the infantry. As an ex-infantry officer, I really must tell the hon. Member that. But I must also disillusion him on one point. He said that anyone with any military experience or interest became persuaded that whatever equipment he had—and particularly tanks—was the finest in the world. I remember only too well how, in the early tank battles in the Western Desert, I thanked my lucky stars that I was not in a British tank, because our lads died by the hundred. Our equipment was infinitely inferior to that of the Germans, because we had neglected rearmament for so many years before.
That said, I found it a little difficult to understand that the hon. Member and the rest of us live in the same world. Perhaps it is best to leave the hon. Member's speech at that.

Mr. Nicholas Winterton: The hon. Member for Birmingham, Selly Oak (Mr. Litterick) is here because of my hon. Friend's military service.

Mr. Hastings: The hon. Member for Selly Oak will understand if I do not follow his remarks too far. He says that there have been no cuts. Even if he is unable to accept the figures produced in the White Paper, he may have accepted that there is something behind the statements about depots closing, jobs lost and 40,000 people leaving the defence forces. However, he sees it another way and feels that the rest of us do not trust our fellow man, otherwise we should not be so bothered about defence. I wonder how the Hungarians and the Czechs would have felt about that a few years ago.
I listened carefully to the Secretary of State's peroration yesterday, and there was a good deal in what he said at the end of his speech. Ithink that all of us on this side would tend to agree with it, but how he squares those words with what is in the White Paper is beyond my comprehension.
I do not know whether the Secretary of State or the other Defence Ministers have come across the admirably practical logic of the military appreciation. It starts by defining the objective. It then deals with the factors affecting the attainment of the objective, including the assessment of the threat, and it finishes up with a plan. I shall apply this litmus of logic to the White Paper.
The first section should, it seems to me. set the theme. It should certainly state the objective. Instead, paragraphs 1 to 16 are a sort of dissertation on détente—nothing else. If it is anything at all, this first section is pure political speculation and no more. It does not belong in any White Paper on defence.
It seems to me that, if it says anything, it says two things. The first is that defence is a mean of détente. But, as we all know, defence is armed strength, and what is needed is for the House to assess the threat and decide whether the armed strength to be provided by the Government is adequate or not.
The second thing that it seems to be saying is not to the House of Commons at all but to the Tribunites and that half of the Labour Party. It seems to run like this: "The Government are doing

all they can to disarm, but if we cannot wholly ignore the tactless tendency of our Russion friends to do the opposite, please understand our difficulty and come along and vote tonight."
If any détente is needed in this debate, I should have thought that it was between the two halves of the Labour Party. If there were a little more of it, we should not have to be asked to accept the ludicrous stuff in the White Paper.
I should like to give some examples of what I mean. On page 2, in paragraph 4, the Government are talking of the alleged agreement to notify major manoeuvres. It says that the Final Act of the CSCE contained measures which
derive from a firm political decision on the part of all the governments who participated in the CSCE",
yet two paragraphs later we read that
Most NATO countries and a fair proportion of neutral and non-aligned States accepted the invitation; but the States of the Warsaw Pact did not.
Over the page we come to the next of the exercises, the mutual and balanced force reductions. We read in paragraph 7 that
It is noteworthy that, in their speeches at the conclusion of the CSCE in Helsinki, all European leaders stressed that the next need was for progress in MBFR.
It might imply that some progress was made. The White Paper goes on to say in paragraph 8 that
The participating States are seeking undiminished security at a lower level of forces in Central Europe. But this objective will not be achieved without a more even ilitary balance between the two sides than exists at present.
Yet in paragraph 10 we learn that
Throughout the negotiations the Warsaw Pact countries have resisted any approach which would have the effect of correcting the imbalance in conventional forces in Central Europe.
If this is "progress," we seem to be talking a different language. It is meaningless. If it were not so desperately serious, it would be hilarious. Therefore, we begin not with a statement of objective at all but with a total confusion about objectives.
The White Paper proceeds then to the assessment of the military threat, which I suspect was made by staff officers rather than by Socialist dialecticians, and it is frightening.
I do not want to deal with this in detail—it has been mentioned a great deal already in the debate—but I put one question to the Secretary of State. We are told that there is no sign of imminent attack in Europe. Is this vast and expensive array, therefore, just for the sake of sabre-rattling? It might be possible to construct an argument on those lines.
It is not mentioned in the White Paper, but I understand that the Soviet spending on civil defence is over $1,000 million a year. That is not necessary for sabre-rattling. That is only there as an earnest of absolute intent to survive in actual war. Of course, we have abandoned our civil defence altogether. But what sort of interpretation do the Government place on this figure?
Surely the Secretary of State realises that a vast military establishment like this imports its own psychological momentum. The Soviet generals may be cautious people. I am inclined to think they are, but if they see an imbalance tending to increase in their favour the temptation in the end could become irresistible.
To pass, therefore, to the conclusion of the White Paper, we get first the confusion about objectives, then the assessment. Then there is the conclusion—or, if one likes, the plan—in this exercise in non-logic. It is to make a few adjustments here and there, and to continue to disarm beyond what we were told yesterday was the safety limit, and to do so principally by cutting the supply base. Do not the Government realise that in modern war the system of supply is doubly important because of the extent of mobility and increased fire power? Have they learnt nothing from the Yom Kippur war and the experience of the Israelis? Have they had no reports about what happened there? If they have, they have ignored them.
According to my analysis, therefore, we have in the White Paper no objective. We have a devastating assessment of growing Soviet might, backed up by Marshal Grechko, who thinks that it ought to grow faster and further. We conclude that the best thing to do is to continue to disarm. That is what this White Paper is all about. I do not think that the Secretary of State will get many marks on the basis of that or pass the staff college. He will not deter or frighten

anyone very much, except, perhaps, by the cautious statement in chapter 7, where, in a short paragraph, it says that it is proposed to reinforce the bird control units on a number of RAF ah fields. So the birds had better watch out, if no one else does.
I want to deal with one more aspect, and that is to explain why I believe that the whole approach to defence as defined in the White Paper, which is common to the free world and not restricted to Britain, is inadequate, unimaginative and dangerous. It ignores two factors of immense importance in the Soviet attack. The first was so well illustrated by my right hon. Friend the Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Mr. Amery) only yesterday when he referred to Mr. Brezhnev as having said quite clearly that détente does not preclude support for so-called liberation movements anywhere in the world.
In plain English, that means that, having secured the central front by the illusion of detente, the Soviet Union will be free to secure its imperial designs by military operations anywhere in the world. The latest apppallingly dangerous example of that is in Angola, so near the source of so many of the metals and raw materials for the entire Western world. There is not one word in the White Paper about this. The name Angola is not even mentioned. Yesterday the Secretary of State was congratulating himself before us all on giving up every vestigial hold left to us anywhere in the world from which, with our Allies, we might have done something to contain or deter.
One other passage in the White Paper illustrates the second lacuna that I wish to draw to the attention of the House. It is in Chapter 1 dealing with the Warsaw Pact where it states:
many Eastern commentators have restated their views of détente, as being strictly limited to achieving better inter-State relations, and have reminded the West that the relaxation of international tension by no means eliminates the struggle of ideas.
What is this struggle of ideas? So far as I am concerned, these people do not have an idea worth offering. The miserable existence they have created for all those under their yoke is the proof of that. What they have, however, is the most formidable subversive machine the world has ever seen. Relentlessly by day and by


night, through this massive intricate apparatus of subversion, by betrayal, by what they call disinformation—that is a translation from the Russian—by blackmail and by worse, their agents are at work, and this country is a prime target for this activity.
Their resources are many time greater than all the security forces, including the CIA, deployed by the West as a whole. There is the notorious KGB. There is the GRU, which is the military intelligence system. There is the International Department of Soviet Trade Union Organizations working on exactly the same thing. Then there are the satellite intelligence services all under KGB control. In particular, the most menacing are the Czechs, the East Germans, the Hungarians and the Cubans. All this information is readily available to anyone who takes an interest in it. Finally there are the indigenous Communist Parties in all the target countries, together with their friends.
This, then, is the "struggle of ideas," a ruthless attempt to destroy the economies and the morale of the free nations, and so far it has been remarkably successful. On any possible interpretation of what they profess to believe, of what they only say and do, the Soviet Union and its Communist allies are at war with us now and have been for a long time. But there are two arms to the Soviet attack. There is the massive military build-up which we have been debating and discussing. The second arm is the subversive attack which we ignore completely or, at least, in the context of defence. We should not do so.
That said, however, there is no need for us to despair. Free man is resilient. We are the ones with the ideas, not they. The weaknesses of a free society are many and evident, but the vulnerability of a closed tyranny also exists and can prove as deadly as Achilles' heel. But if we are to resist, if our ideas are to prevail, we must realise what we are up against and we must take adequate counter-measures. Above all, we must have the will to survive. To that end the White Paper and the words of the Secretary of State yesterday make no contribution whatsoever. They only go to prove that in the hands of this schizophrenic Socialist Government the destiny

of this country and our very freedom are at permanent risk.

8.18 p.m.

Mr. Stanley Newens: One of the recurring themes in the debate, both inside the House and outside, over past months has been talk of the growth of the military capabilities of the Warsaw Pact countries. It featured in the speech of the hon. Member for Mid-Bedfordshire (Mr. Hastings). That particular argument is held to justify not merely the present fantastic level of military expenditure but ever-increasing amounts.
It is difficult at times to believe that hon. Members who advocate increasing defence expenditure have fully grasped the economic implications of what they are suggesting. If their ideas were put into practice, either global public expenditure would rise to an all-time peak—and they say that present levels are threatening the economic viability of this country—or it would mean such Draconian cuts in housing, health, public transport and welfare as virtually to wreck whole areas of our way of life. The effects of that would be disastrous in many ways which Conservative Members cannot possibly have thought out.
As my hon. Friend the Member for Salford, East (Mr. Allaun) argued yesterday, the contention that defence expenditure is being substantially cut does not stand up. My hon. Friend the Member for Birmingham, Selly Oak (Mr. Litterick) quoted the White Paper on Public Expenditure. I want to refer to the figure shown on page 31 for the year 1976–77. That figure is £4,566 million at 1975 prices. In 1977–78 it will be £4,548 million. That is £18 million less. That is a reduction of less than½ per cent. In 1978–79 we have a further reduction of £18 million, and the figure remains the same in 1979–80. The reduction is less than 1 per cent. during the period from now till 1979–80. In other words, even if the projections are right, the cuts will be quite minimal. If this is the result of the most far-reaching defence review that has ever been carried out and of subsequent cuts, all we can say is that it is a good job that we did not have a mere superficial review.
We can fairly say that the policy that the Government are pursuing is to maintain defence costs at a constant level and


that this policy does not include making real cuts at all. I therefore support very strongly the amendment on the Order Paper in the name of my hon. Friend the Member for Salford, East and in my name and the names of others of my hon. Friends. I hope that the Conservative Opposition will make it quite clear in the country where they would make the cuts in the social services that would be necessary to carry out the increased expenditure that they are proposing.
The argument that the West is falling behind the Warsaw Pact countries, on which the Conservative case for additional expenditure is based, is in many respects, untenable as my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh, Central (Mr. Cook) pointed out. I deplore the present level of Soviet expenditure on arms as much as I deplore that of the West, but it must be taken into account that conventional weaponry and armies, to which Opposition Members have devoted most of their speeches, constitute only part of the military strength which could be deployed in a conflict. Both military alliances also rely on strategic nuclear weapons. In this field the United States and the West remain both numerically and qualitatively way ahead.

Mr. John Stokes: Thank God.

Mr. Newens: The total targetable warheads are variously estimated. For the United States the estimates vary between 6,122 and 8,586, and for the USSR the estimates vary between 3,269 and 4,240. On any interpretation the United States is clearly way ahead. The fact that the estimates vary arises because the authorities differ in methods of counting, but there can be no doubt about the superiority of the United States in this respect.
That has been confirmed in the speech which no less a person than Dr. Henry Kissinger made at Dallas as recently as 22nd March this year. According to The Times of the following day, Dr. Kissinger stated that:
American strategic missiles, for instance, were superior to the larger Soviet ones in reliability, accuracy, diversity and sophistication.
He went on to say:
We possess far larger numbers of warheads—8,500 to their 2,500.

This represents a larger disparity than that which I have mentioned, which is based upon all the authorities which publish material on this matter.
It is possible that there was a degree of exaggeration in Dr. Kissinger's statement. It is clear that he was making it in the light of Mr. Reagan's presidential aspirations. However, the fact that there is this clear lead in strategic nuclear weaponry makes it absolutely nonsensical for any country to call for more expenditure on nuclear arms.
I am by no means satisfied with the statements that have been made by my right hon. Friend about the expenditure that we are now devoting to maintaining a nuclear deterrent. I believe that the House should be told what the figures are and whether it is true that we are spending a further £400 million. If we are, it is an absolute disgrace. I am quite sure that the people of this country who are forced to put up with cuts in their standard of living because of unemployment and cuts in public expenditure would revolt against it very strongly indeed.

Mr. Stokes: Absolute rubbish.

Mr. Newens: That is a matter of opinion. I suggest that the hon. Gentleman tests that on some of the people within his own constituency who live in the poorer houses there and finds out whether they would be prepared to make the sort of contribution to which he would give his support.
If the West has superiority in nuclear weaponry, this is obviously a stimulus for the Warsaw Pact, on the crazy logic—which is argued here—to maintain a lead in the conventional field. The arguments advanced to justify the concept of flexible response by the West apply equally strongly when looked at from the Soviet point of view. We should recognise that clearly.
Dr. Kissinger said in his Dallas speech that the United States Administration would not be deflected from present policies by
contrived and incredible scenarios, by inflated versions of Soviet strength or by irresponsible attacks on SALT.
Those of us on these Benches who demand real cuts in expenditure on armaments do not intend to be pushed


away from the stand that we have taken and which is set out in our amendment. Those of us who have signed the amendment are totally dissatisfied with the failure of the Government to make effective reductions in military expenditure. It is extremely repugnant to us that the motion should talk in terms of welcoming the Statement. However, the logic of events will eventually drive my right hon. and hon. Friends to recognise that we cannot afford the present levels of expenditure, and perhaps we are now at a unique time when some reconsideration of this issue ought to be undertaken.
The defence policy advanced from both Front Benches, in the view of those of us who stand by the amendment, is totally out of date. Our objectives still include the defence of interests which have nothing to do with the real interests of our people or of the peoples of the world. On numerous occasions I have criticised the British involvement in Oman. The fact that we have helped to prolong the life of the Sultan's regime in that country and have suppressed a national liberation movement is neither right nor in our long-term interests.
I fervently look forward to a time when we shall make a complete overhaul of British defence policy and achieve savings of much greater magnitude.
I warn my right hon. and hon. Friends in the Government. We are not prepared in the long run to accept what has been done to date. We are determined to carry on a struggle for real cuts. Over a number of years the number of hon. Members who demand such cuts has grown. We believe that it will continue to grow. The logic of our arguments will eventually carry the day and we shall carry on the struggle until defence expenditure is cut to a realistic level, and certainly far below the levels now proposed by the Government.

8.30 p.m.

Mr. Nicholas Winterton: I shall not take up the arguments deployed by the hon. Member for Harlow (Mr. Newens). I begin by saying how much I support the views expressed by my right hon. Friend the Member for Farnham (Mr. Macmillan), who emphasised that the defence of the realm must be the first priority of any Government. The first duty of the Government, whatever

its political colour, is to guarantee the security of the State against external aggression.
Whether we like it or not, and whether or not hon. Members below the Gangway on the Government side accept the situation, the vast military resources of the Warsaw Pact countries continue to pose a potential threat of the gravest nature to Western security. This military power must be seen not only in terms of its ability to wage war but as a means of reinforcing political pressure and of advancing the policies of the Eastern bloc without having to resort to open hostilities.
The Warsaw Pact countries have been steadily increasing the proportion of their national resources devoted to defence. The Pact's armed forces continue to grow in both size and strength, far beyond what is needed for purely defensive measures and garrison duties. Soviet strategic nuclear forces now almost match those of the United States in numbers, while the Warsaw Pact's land and air forces deployed in central Europe substantially outnumber those of NATO.
The Soviet Union has emerged as a maritime super-Power. It has developed a large, modern, well-equipped fleet of cruisers, destroyers and escorts, over 1,000 naval aircraft and some 320 operational submarines, of which 120 are nuclear-powered. Two aircraft carriers are under construction. The Warsaw Pact's building rate for nuclear-powered submarines is now twice that of NATO. The numbers of Warsaw Pact and NATO surface ships are broadly similar, but allied surface vessels include a very much higher proportion of older ships carrying substantially fewer offensive or defensive missile systems. One nuclear submarine is completed by the Soviets every five or six weeks.
Numerical comparisons disguise the full extent of the imbalance between the Soviet submarine fleet, which is now increasingly nuclear-powered, and the capability of NATO's anti-submarine forces. The major Soviet threat at sea, therefore, comes more from the very large submarine force and from the Soviet Union's substantial building programme, which is improving the quality and average age of the Soviet fleet compared with those of the Alliance. The maritime balance has shifted and is continuing


to shift markedly in favour of the Warsaw Pact. That is the trend as we debate the Defence Estimates.
In the Eastern Atlantic area, NATO's mainly British maritime forces at immediate readiness for forward defence are already heavily outnumbered. I am not talking about a distant menace. Elements of the Soviet fleet skulk off the Cornish coast and patrol the Channel and the Atlantic. That clearly is undeniable. Deployed as they are, Soviet forces represent a powerful instrument of war. Their increasing capabilities must be measured not only in terms of military potential but also as a possible means of reinforcing political pressure without recourse to open hostilities. The contribution of the hon. Lady the Member for Barking (Miss Richardson) indicates how successful they have been in her case.
The strategic forces of the West are the ultimate deterrent against strategic nuclear attack. In a period of strategic parity, however, they do not constitute a credible deterrent against lower levels of aggression. For this purpose, the West and the NATO Alliance must also deploy credible numbers of conventional and tactical nuclear forces. How right was my right hon. Friend the Member for Stafford and Stone (Mr. Fraser) to press his case so forcibly for a realistic level of conventional and tactical nuclear forces. He made his point with great emotion, but I believe that the point is understood throughout the country.
Despite all this, however, we find that British defence expenditure in the last six years has remained static. Taking inflation into account in real terms we are now spending less on defence than we did in 1969. With this massive threat to our free society on our doorstep in the Atlantic—and I value our freedom and the sort of society that we have in the West—this year we spent less on defence than we did on health, education, and social security. No doubt this will be welcomed by Labour Members below the Gangway. For every pound spent on defence, we shall spend £2 on the Department of Health and Social Security. At the risk of our freedom, with the Soviet Union virtually rattling on our front door, we prefer to put in jeopardy our freedom. That is the sad situation.
My hon. Friend the Member for Mid-Bedfordshire (Mr. Hastings) was right to raise the matter of civil defence. We have no civil defence in this country. It is extraordinary that the Soviet Union has allocated more than £300 million for civil defence within its own boundaries. There is one rule for them and another for us. They are prepared to plan, but we are not. We delude ourselves and think that a few worthless signatures from the Soviet Union on the same piece of paper as the signatures of President Ford of the United States or of the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary enable us to ignore the growing future Soviet threat.
I shall elaborate on comparisons between NATO and Warsaw Pact forces so that we and the public are fully aware of the real picture and the background to the present fanatical quest for détente. Taking the military balance of ready forces in Central Europe, for every 100 NATO soldiers there are 130 Warsaw Pact soldiers; for every 100 NATO soldiers serving in a fighting unit, there are 140 Warsaw Pact soldiers; for every 100 NATO tanks, there are 270 Warsaw Pact tanks; for every 100 NATO field guns, there are 250 Warsaw Pact field guns; for every 100 NATO tactical aircraft, there are 230 Warsaw Pact aircraft. If that shows parity, if that shows balance, all I can say is that hon. Members below the Gangway on the Government side are living in one world, cloud-cuckoo land, and that we on this side of the House at least, perhaps with some members of the Government, are living in the real world.
Let us also consider the balance of forces in the Eastern Atlantic. It is a horrifying picture. For every 10 NATO surface ships, there are 20 Warsaw Pact ships; for every 10 NATO submarines, there are 17 Warsaw Pact submarines; and for every 10 NATO combat aircraft, there are 15 Warsaw Pact aircraft. These figures are in the White Paper which is the subject of the debate.
It is against that background that the Government—and I condemn them for their policies—are prepared to countenance the folly of détente and place at risk the remainder of the ever-declining free world. Such a Government can never have learnt the lesson of Munich and appeasement. Such a Government


are almost as dangerous to the continuing existence of the free world as the Soviets themselves. Détente is a charade.
In the 1930s our great country slept while Churchill warned. Politicians then closed their ears to him. Are we going to make the same mistake today? Last year's Helsinki Conference on security is the Munich of the free world.
Détente sounds a fine word, but throughout this decade of détente the armed forces of the Soviet Union have increased, are increasing and show no signs of diminishing. We have a responsibility, and the Government have a responsibility, to defend the nation. They stand condemned for failing to do so.

8.40 p.m.

Mr. William Hamilton: After that little bit of sabre-rattling, we can rest assured that my right hon. Friend who is to reply to the debate will tell the hon. Gentleman and his hon. Friends exactly what our position is.
I do not pretend to be an expert on these matters. Having listened to nearly all the speeches today, I suppose that it is easy to jibe at the principle of détente. What détente means is that we are trying, as we must, to live together with people who operate different political and social systems from our own.
The figures that the hon. Gentleman and others have quoted of the relative military strength of the Communist world and the West are probably true. I know that they are in the White Paper, but that does not mean that they are true. I have seen many things in many White Papers that are not true, and there are more ways of brainwashing Members of Parliament than producing White Papers.
The House of Commons as a whole is probably the worst instrument, or at any rate not the best, for investigating in depth the problems that we are now trying to face in a two-day debate. It would be interesting to cost the various proposals put forward from the Opposition Benches in the past two days. I stopped making notes on those proposals in mid-afternoon yesterday, but more were made today, and I took down a few of them.
The hon. Member for Portsmouth, South (Mr. Pink) asked for more ships and aircraft. He was not clear what kind

of ships or aircraft we should have, but we may be certain that they would cost many hundreds of millions of pounds, if not thousands of millions. The right hon. Member for Farnham (Mr. Macmillan) wanted a European nuclear deterrent. I do not know what additional costs that would involve. The right hon. Gentleman said that we must resist Soviet aggression now, and he specifically mentioned Angola. He did not spell out exactly what we were supposed to do in Angola. We cannot send additional forces to Northern Ireland, let alone half way round the world to Angola.
Although I do not think that it has been mentioned in this debate, on other occasions hon. Members have suggested that we send troops to the aid of Ian Smith in Rhodesia.

Mr. Nicholas Winterton: Equipment.

Mr. Hamilton: Equipment, then, but it must get there somehow. It must be flown or go by sea. There have been many suggestions as to how we might increase expenditure in that regard.
I say to my hon. Friends who tabled the amendment—they know it, as I know it—that the easiest way to earn applause at any Labour Party or Left-Wing meeting is to call for massive cuts in defence expenditure so that we may build more houses and hospitals, pay higher pensions to widows and old folk, and the rest. Such calls have been made ad nauseam yesterday and today. The thoughts that inspire such speeches, and the support which they engender, are neither ignoble nor unpatriotic, though some of them may be. I acquit most of my hon. Friends of any such ignoble thoughts.
However, there are wise men and women all over the world who insure themselves against unforeseen contingencies. Most modern countries of whatever political complexion have compulsory social insurance and compulsory military insurace. Nobody can contract out of either in a modern industrialised society and it is right and proper that there should be continuing debate in democracies.
This kind of debate could not take place in the Soviet Union and we should be thankful that it can here. That, I believe, is worth defending. It is right and proper that continuing debate should go on in democracies as to how comprehensive our


insurance—and in this context we are talking of military insurance—should be and how high should be the premiums we pay.
No nation in the modern world, however rich, can insure itself militarily against all possible contingencies. Still less can any one nation separately contract out of co-operation with other nations with similar concepts of the kind of societies which they seek to preserve and defend. So we have on the one hand the NATO Powers and on the other the Warsaw Pact Powers and I believe that ideally we should all like to see both disappear. But one cannot afford to take unilateral action in this field, and this is where I disagree with some of my hon. Friends.
There has been, willingly, a tremendous loss of national sovereignty in the pooling of resources on the NATO side and on the Warsaw Pact side. The loss of sovereignty in the military sphere is in many ways greater than the loss of sovereignty that some hon. Members criticise as the price for having joined the Common Market. The great loss of sovereignty in the military field is as important as, if not more important than, the loss of sovereignty in other directions.
I turn to the aims and purposes of the military expenditure we are discussing. The first is surely to deter potential aggressors, the second to preserve the peace. I believe that my hon. Friend the Member for Harlow (Mr. Newens) is an idealist who would dearly love to ensure worldwide acceptance of pacificism, but perhaps I misunderstand him.

Mr. Martin Flannery: My hon. Friend does.

Mr. Hamilton: If that is so, I accept it. I myself was a pacificist and conscientious objector in the early part of the Second World War and I ended up with His Majesty's commission.
But my hon. Friends are concerned about the size of the bill that we are now being asked to pay. They accept, therefore, that pacificism on an international basis is impracticable. It cannot be achieved either now or in the foreseeable future. The other alternative, suggested I believe by my hon. Friend the Member for Barking (Miss Richardson), was that we contract out completely on a

unilateral basis, sheltering presumably under the wing of a mightier military partner, in our case the United States of America.
It seems to me that that would be an immoral course to take. We would be saying, "We do not want to spend our cash and our resources on nuclear and conventional weapons but we rely on the Americans to defend us from whatever aggressor there might be." That seems to me an immoral posture to adopt. It would make us a parasitic satellite of the United States.

Mr. Flannery: My hon. Friend the Member for Barking (Miss Richardson) has been misinterpreted. She implied this only on nuclear armaments, not conventional armaments, which is a completely different question.

Mr. Hamilton: My hon. Friend may be right, but that does not alter the principle of the argument. The nuclear element in our defence expenditure represents a very small proportion of the total amount. It seems immoral, irrespective of whether it is conventional or nuclear, to say that we will contract out of that and leave it to our more wealthy and powerful partners. That is immoral and indefensible.
The third suggestion is to try to recognise our potential aggressor, to ascertain his intentions, and to decide how big a part we can afford to play in meeting any threat which that aggressor may pose. The automatic assumption by the Opposition is that the USSR is the only threat in the world. There is no other, according to the Leader of the Opposition—the Iron Maiden. Her thoughts on these matters are pathetically juvenile and terrifyingly negative. They are designed to appeal more to the retired Colonel Blimps avid the knights of the shires than as a serious contribution to the maintenance of world peace. When the right hon. Lady made her well-publicised speech about Soviet military expenditure, she was saying nothing novel and certainly nothing constructive in this or in any other area about which she has spoken since she put her petticoats round her Tory brood.
The Tory Party is in favour of massive and immediate cuts in public expenditure, in general, and is equally forceful in


pressing for massive and immediate increases in military expenditure. The Opposition cannot have it both ways. They have not spelled out in any detail how they would do it, in which directions they would do it, or anything else. They have tried to make the blood of our people curdle with the fear of the Soviet threat. In terms of sheer military might, that threat undoubtedly exists. I accept that completely. It cannot lightly be ignored or underestimated.
We must make political judgments here. In my judgment—this matter has not been mentioned in the debate—developments in Africa and our attitude towards them may be a greater threat to world peace than the purely military potential of the Communist bloc. The Conservatives apparently—indeed, officially—appear to be on one side in the struggle for Africa. They are on the side of the white minorities all over Africa—the white Rhodesians and the white South Africans. With few exceptions, virtually all hon. Gentlemen opposite take that view. It is as well to bear that in mind when discussing defence expenditure in this and future debates.
In this White Paper, as in others, political and economic judgments have been made. No one—least of all me—can say now or ever whether those judgments are right or wrong. In that context, I am prepared to give the Government the benefit of the doubt. I shall support them, but without any great enthusiasm, because I do not know whether they are right or wrong.
However, I assume that they have acted in good faith and done their best, within the economic, social and political context in which they work and within our limited resources, to give the people of this country as much military protection as they think is possible in the circumstances.
That being so, I want to spend the last few minutes of my speech on what is in a way a local, but none the less important, point. There is a chapter in the White Paper on dockyards. This might appear to be a parochial point but I want to refer to the Rosyth Dockyard in particular and the protection of our oil resources in the North Sea.
Rosyth is an integral part of NATO and its nuclear arsenal. It is the biggest

single employer in Fife and when my hon. Friends talk about more massive cuts in military expenditure, I would warn them that if that means the closure of the Rosyth Dockyard, or even a substantial reduction of the labour force, I shall resist them on that score alone. That simply could not be replaced overnight or in a matter of a year or two. I shall give the figures.
I make a criticism here of the people who have gone home tonight. I asked my right hon. Friend about an hour ago for the figures of the numbers employed in Rosyth Dockyard in each of the last five years and I was informed by somebody from the Ministry of Defence that I could not get them tonight because everybody in the Ministry had gone home. Then I wondered where the hell I could get them. I got them. I found them in the Second Report of the Expenditure Committee. Apparently, no Minister or any of his advisers knew that the figures were here, so they can all go home, because I have got them myself. But this is a serious point and they had no business going home while this kind of debate was going on. They are paid handsomely enough, so why the hell should I have to find the information when they are paid to do it?
I quote the figures from page 160 of this book. In 1964–65 it was 5,061. In 1974–75, 10 years later, it was 5,874. The projection for 1979–80 is 5,845. That means that in 1964 one worker in every nine in the dockyards was in Rosyth and in 1979–80 one in every six will be in Rosyth. Therefore, it is getting a bigger share of the total work force in all the dockyards than any other dockyard, and that is because it services the Polaris nuclear submarines.
I come to the speech of the hon. Member for Argyll (Mr. MacCormick) yesterday. Like mine, his geography is a little awry, but I will quote him. He said:
… the Soviet naval defence frontier has expanded as far eastwards as to be on a line joining Iceland and Scotland".
He added:
The effect of the move eastwards of the Soviet naval defence frontier means that the Secretary of State for Defence will have to look carefully at the question of the siting of our Polaris base at Rosyth in the Clyde.


The hon. Gentleman will have to attend his geography lessons a little more regularly. He went on:
If we accept that it seems reasonable to move the Polaris base from the Clyde to, say, Devonport, it would then also be sensible to refit nuclear submarines at the same place as that in which they are based."—[Official Report, 31st March 1976; Vol. 908, c. 1405.]
That means that, if the hon. Gentleman and his party get their way, two factors affecting Fife will flow from it. The hon. Member for Clackmannan and East Stirlingshire (Mr. Reid) is on record as saying that he wants to get every Scottish Member of Parliament out of this place. Then we hear that the Scottish nationalists intend to have their own Scottish navy and that they will have no NATO bases in Scotland at all, even though they will remain members of NATO. That is what the hon. Member for Argyll said yesterday. The nuclear base in Scotland will be moved to Devonport, which will mean the servicing of the submarines being moved to Devonport.
I have quoted the employment figures. In our Rosyth dockyard there are nearly 6,000 jobs. That means that the Scottish National Party will lose us in Fife at least 6,000 jobs. What is more, if the hon. Gentleman and his party get their complete separation, English Members here will not complain. There will be no Scottish Members here to say "But we want our fair share of defence jobs". On the contrary, we shall see every ruddy job disappear. The Scottish navy could be put in Troon Harbour and the Scottish army and the Scottish air force could both be put in Rosyth. The English Members will say "Good luck to them". Meanwhile, we shall have these thousands of additional jobs in Devonport, in Newcastle, in Portsmouth and in Chatham.

Mr. Iain MacCormick (Argyll): Mr. Iain MacCormick (Argyll)rose——

Mr. Hamilton: Yes. I will give way to the Admiral.

Mr. MacCormick: I have to ask the hon. Gentleman whether he does not appreciate the basic dishonesty of his party's case on this issue. What I said yesterday was that it was inevitable that this base would have to be moved away from Scotland for strategic reasons. In view of that, does not the hon. Gentleman

agree that what he is saying is a smokescreen designed to hide the fact that the only circumstance in which Rosyth Dockyard will offer employment in the future is the situation in which in a self-governing Scotland it will be servicing conventional weapons?

Mr. Hamilton: What conventional weapons? I suggest that the hon. Gentleman looks at the breakdown of the figures and notes the size of Rosyth. Both he and his leader are on record as wanting a separate Scottish navy.
Let me quote what he said yesterday. Incidentally, I am wrong in suggesting that he spoke of a Scottish navy. He called it a Scottish coastguard. But he went on to say that it would protect the oil rigs from these hundreds of Soviet submarines. That must put the fear of God into the Soviet Union. No longer can they view these rigs as targets because there will be these Scottish tugboats protecting them. This is the nonsense being peddled around Scotland. I leave the hon. Member for Arygll to his own imagination, because I want to draw my remarks to a conclusion.
No one on the Government Benches is happy that we have to spend cash and use manpower on defence. In an ideal world, we should all like to get rid of it. But we do not live in an ideal world, and we are not likely to. We have to gear our defence commitments to our capacity to fulfil a rôle in NATO. I do not know that any of my hon. Friends wants us unilaterally to quit NATO, though some of them may——

Mr. Newens: Yes.

Mr. Hamilton: If they do, I suspect their motives. If they do not, we must try to get disarmament on a multilateral basis. That is what the Government are striving for. I hope that the Labour Government, or even an alternative Government, will do all they can to defend our values and liberties from any aggressor, whoever it may be.

9.1 p.m.

Mr. Reginald Maudling: I will not enter into the fascinating exchange of the last few minutes. I observe only that, wherever detente may operate, it clearly does not operate in Scotland.
To return to the basic issue of the debate and, particularly to the Secretary of State's opening speech, I was struck by the extraordinary contrast between his words and his actions. He gave us a lot of very tough words about the Russian threat. The balance of power, he said, has tilted further against the NATO Powers. Our quality advantage in weaponry has been eroded. The Soviet Union's defence expenditure, he told us, has been greater than we thought. All of these things, he said, absolutely truly, about the growth of the Soviet threat.
The right hon. Gentleman also emphasised that he was making real cuts in our defence expenditure. He took pride in saying that he was progressively reducing our defence expenditure and that the defence budget in real terms in 1978–79 would be less than it was in 1970–71. These two things do not add up and cannot add up.
There is no possible way whatever of reconciling the point of view which says that our enemy, or potential enemy, is getting stronger and that which says, therefore we are getting weaker. This is fundamentally the point which the Opposition are making tonight in these votes. We believe that it is totally wrong to put forward these two conflicting points of view. It is no way of conducting the policy of this country in an area vital to the citizens of this country.
The Secretary of State reminded me of a Latin tag which students of moral philosophy have been asked to comment on; Meliora scio, detereriora sequor." In the absence of the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell) I will translate. It means roughly "I know what is better, I do what is worse "—[Laughter.] It may or may not be funny but it is relevant. The usual explanation given by students is that it is an expression of human frailty.
That is probably true, but in this case an additional reason is mat the Minister is in an impossible political position. He knows the extent of the dangers to this country and our Allies. He knows that from the expert advice he receives and from the intelligence available to him. At the same time he knows the political danger of his own Left wing. He knows that from the evidence of his eyesight and his ears and he is trying to reconcile the two. This process of reconciliation

does not really further the interests of the British nation.
The Government motion contains the words:
being aware of the economic factors which have led to cuts in all sectors of public spending".
Those economic factors are largely the failure to control inflation and the gross increase in public expenditure in the early days of the present Government. This is not the time for an economic debate—we shall have plenty of that in the next week or two—but the problem is a stagnant economy and a weak currency. Our Allies will hardly regard as a good excuse for our declining defence effort the fact that we are not doing as well as we could in running our own economy.
But more significant than that is the reference to
cuts in all sectors of public spending".
Defence, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Farnham (Mr. Macmillan) said, is not just another sector of public spending. It is something totally different. It is fundamental. It is not a question of how much we can afford to spend to enhance life, but how much we need to spend to preserve it. This is determined not by our own choice, but by the extent and power of any potential enemy. Poverty, even if self-inflicted, is no defence against aggression.
Then the Government motion talks of cuts falling
on support services rather than on frontline forces".
Are support services a luxury? Can armies fight without transport and ammunition? Can a war be sustained—we must consider sustaining our defence and not just operating in the short term—without adequate reserves, replacements and resources? Of course not.
I thought that the Minister's argument was the most extraordinary I had ever heard—that he can now turn to cutting the less essential because he has already cut the more essential. Now that he has blunted the teeth with his earlier cuts, he can turn his attention to combing the tail. I have seldom heard so palpably stupid an excuse for Government action. A Minister who says that he started by cutting expenditure on front line forces justifies his present cuts by saying that other expenditure does not matter at all. That is the most extraordinary argument


that I have ever heard from the Government Front Bench.
Then the motion refers to
maintaining the British contribution to NATO".
Even if that were true, which it is not, there are two things to say. First, our contribution to NATO has been greatly reduced, particularly the real contribution, in the Mediterranean, on the flanks of NATO. As the Select Committee pointed out, and as last year's White Paper made absolutely clear, there has been an enormous reduction in the British contribution to NATO.
After all, what matters is not only the forces allocated to NATO, but the total contribution of Britain to the defence of the West. The White Paper said in paragraph 62:
the Defence Review decisions involved reductions in the planned numbers of destroyers, frigates, and mine counter-measures vessels…accounted for by the cut in our oversea and Mediterranean commitments".
What cut has the Soviet Union made in its oversea and Mediterranean commitments in the last few years? Yet this country's commitment to NATO is a total commitment to the total defence of the Western world against possible aggressors.
The Government motion then refers to
maintaining…the security and territorial integrity of the United Kingdom".
That is a bold claim. How do the Government measure their success? Not in terms of the percentage of GNP spent on defence—that does not impress the Russians much. Not by other spending cuts—that doesn not impress them much, either. What impresses a potential aggressor is solely men and weapons, armour, tanks and aircraft, and the obvious will to use them if, God forbid, the necessity should arise. It is that sort of phrase in the motion which will lead us to vote solidly against it.
I imagine that the Government are not prepared to accept our amendment. I wonder why not. We refer to the fact that last year's defence cuts
reduced the defences of the United Kingdom to 'absolute bedrock'".
Is that true or not? Certainly, it was the view of the Government's most senior

adviser in these matters. Do the Government accept it, or do they not? Did last year's reductions take us down to absolute bedrock?
Then, the amendment refers to
the continued growth of Soviet military strength and the increasingly unfavourable military balance between NATO and the Warsaw Pact".
Is there anything wrong with that? We take those words from their own White Paper. The figures are there. They were in the Minister's speech, in the excellent passages about the threat to our country.
The Government cannot object to our amendment on that score because they agree that Soviet power is growing and that the balance is swinging against the NATO Powers. How can they possibly continue with their policy of reducing our defences when, by their own admission, the armed forces of our potential enemy are increasing all the time? That is the fundamental point that we want to make, and our amendment is based solely on what the Government and their representatives have said and on the facts that they have put forward.
The Government stress the need for mutual and balanced force reductions, and with that I entirely agree. It is right to say that we cannot have a sensible disarmament scheme in Western Europe unless it will lead to a better balance between the Powers. However, the Government are not improving the balance between the forces of East and West; they are increasing the imbalance by reducing Britain's power and Britain's contribution to the West. How can they reconcile that with their view that it is essential to reduce the imbalance between the two sides? All these matters seem to display a total lack of logic in the Government's defence posture.
I turn to the amendment on the Order Paper which was not selected but to which much reference has been made. It has been signed by more than 80 hon. Members of the Labour Party. That is a formidable roll-call of political support against the Government. I find it difficult to understand much of the thinking behind the amendment. It calls for a reduction in the current arms bill. If there is a reduction in real terms or in money terms, it will be equally bad.
The Warsaw Pact countries and our main Allies are now increasing their expenditure on defence. Do we not need defending? If we do need defending do we, as the hon. Member for Fife, Central (Mr. Hamilton) said, rely on others to defend us? Is it the posture of our country to rely on others? Are we prepared to let our Allies build up their strengths while we decrease ours?
The Tribunite amendment says that the Government are abandoning the policy of reducing the proportion of GNP that is spent on arms to the level of other European countries. I am not sure that that is right. The real facts are that the French and Germans are spending more than us and that their spending is increasing. The point is that their GNP is higher than ours, but because we are poorer than they, do we value freedom less?

Mr. Frank Allaun: The right hon. Gentleman is no child in these matters. He knows that the criterion that is used in NATO circles is the comparison of GNPs. Why should Britain, which is poorer than Germany or France, devote a higher proportion of its resources to arms spending than the French or the Germans?

Mr. Maudling: I have already covered that point. The comparisons that the amendment seeks to make are wrong. We believe that the proper measure of defence expenditure is what is necessary for the defence of Britain.
The amendment claims that arms expenditure has the effect of diverting money and resources from the social services. There are many other candidates for Government money—for example, there is nationalisation. As my right hon. Friend the Member for Chesham and Amersham (Mr. Gilmour) said yesterday, when the Chancellor of the Exchequer was Secretary of State for Defence he said that there was not much point in having schools, hospitals, roads and houses if everything was reduced to cinders by aggression.
I feel that the attitude of the extreme Left towards defence is that they do not want any defence at all. It is rather the attitude of a nervous dog when faced by an aggressive person: the dog rolls on its back hoping that its belly will be scratched instead of its backside kicked.

As my right hon. Friend also said, when it comes to saving money, there is no greater waste of money than spending it on defence that does not work.
It seems that the 80 or so signatories to the Tribunite amendment believe that we should have no defence. How will they be able to vote for the Government proposals?

Mr. Frank Allaun: I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for giving way twice. I am bitterly opposed to the real increase in arms spending which this White Paper entails, but the Conservative policy would be to spend more. As it nearly says in the Bible, "We have whipped you with whips, but you would whip us with scorpions".

Mr. Maudling: The hon. Member and his hon. Friends will vote for a policy that they bitterly oppose. I do not think that that adds to the status of Parliament in the eyes of the public.
There are two views it is possible to take about Soviet purpose and intent, but only one that it is safe to take—the cautious view. We can say that the Soviets are not expansionists, that they are devoted to Mother Russia and the prosperity of their own people and that their outside activities are designed to weaken potential aggressors. Or we may say, as do the Government in the White Paper:
there is no evidence that the Soviet Union and its allies are contemplating a military attack upon the West".
However, this means only that the Government do not have such evidence. They may be right—I hope that they are—but they may be wrong, and then it would be too late for regrets.
The Soviet Union has engaged in a vast build-up and world-wide deployment of armaments, especially naval. It would surely be wise to assume that some aggressive intention might be involved in this strange development. On either view of the Soviet intention, it is clear that the Soviets will take every opportunity offered to them to weaken and disrupt the West, whether for defensive or offensive reasons.
The weaker we get in arms and will, the greater the danger. Men do not start wars unless they expect to win them.
Si pacem vis bellum para is not a bad rule. If one wants to live in peace, one should make quite clear to everyone else that it is not a good idea to start a war.
The policy of the Soviet Union since Helsinki has been disappointing. Nothing that happened at Helsinki could justify the standing down of a single NATO soldier. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating and détente, like peace, should be indivisible.
Of course we long for the success of detente, as would any sane human being. The only alternative to co-existence is co-destruction, but progress since Helsinki has been disappointing, whether on Basket III, the individual freedom of movement and families, the expansion of Soviet naval power, or the new phenomenon of the incursion by Cuban troops, with political and logistic support from the Soviet Union, into Africa. That is not what we thought the word "détente" meant.
There is also the continuance of what could be called political aggression. Of course, there is a great range between war and the mere exchange of ideas, but surely it is important to recognise that, in the course of political activities, the Soviet Union is trying to detach from NATO some of our present Allies in order to destroy the current NATO basis of defence. In the detachment of individual countries through political pressure, the Soviet Union may be better than us, but is certainly not invincible.
The defence of freedom must be total—political, economic and military. In the West we must maintain the will to resist by sustaining belief that the free system is worth defending. The Russians have some advantage in this matter. They erect barriers against ideas which are as strong as tank traps or mine-fields.
Despite that, I believe that the power of the ideas of freedom of the West will prove the stronger force if we persist. As O'Shaughnessy said:
One man with a dream, at pleasure,
Shall go forth and conquer a crown;
And three with a new song's measure
Can trample a kindom down.
The power of ideas is great, and the power of free men's ideas is greater.
In the economic field we have an advantage which can be eroded if we lose access to vital raw materials. For the moment we have a strong economic advantage The Russians cannot feed themselves; they need Western technology

and they are desperately short of foreign exchange.
In those circumstances, some Western tactics must seem rather curious to them. For reasons we all understand, America continues to supply the grain the Russians need, so the Russian people feed on the products of capitalism. The West still competes to supply the technology they need, and we in this country press upon them subsidies in the form of cheap credit. Surely we should expect in exchange for this economic assistance some political return from the Soviet Union. If détente means anything, there should be some response.
To these problems we must not add military weakness, for weakness is danger. That is the fundamental point of defence policy. The balance of power of nuclear weapons provides peace between the great Powers, but can it work for ever? If the Soviet Union would not wish to risk an American nuclear onslaught, could it not calculate that the Americans would not wish to risk a Soviet onslaught to defend their European friends and Allies? That stresses the fundamental importance of maintaining the cohesion of the Atlantic Alliance. Any possible doubt or any wavering in the support of the United States for its European Allies will be the temptation which might bring about the danger we all want to avoid.
The present imbalance of conventional forces in Western Europe is a grave danger. Reliance on tactical nuclear weapons to redress the imbalance of conventional weapons creates perils. For example, we could not in all circumstances guarantee that the reaction with tactical nuclear weapons would be speedy enough to be effective in response. If it were too slow, where would those weapons fall and how could they be used?
There is the great danger that a nuclear exchange once begun on a tactical level would spread to a strategic level. I do not believe in fighting a war on the basis of the International Red Cross measuring weapons to see whether a bomb is too large to be allowed.
Our conclusion must be that the present imbalance in conventional forces between the NATO Powers and the Warsaw Pact Powers is a great danger to the peace of


the world and the security and freedom of the West. We must try to reduce it by negotiation in the MBFR talks. That is the right way to go about it. It is disappointing that the Soviet Government have made so little progress. I accept that Her Majesty's Government are doing all they can to make progress in these negotiations, but so far progress has been very slight.
If the Soviets maintain their position and will accept only reductions which continue the imbalance of forces in Europe in their favour, I cannot see how real progress towards détente can be made. If the imbalance in conventional forces is a danger, we must not increase it but must try to reduce it through negotiation. That is precisely what Her Majesty's Government are doing. The one thing we should not do for the security of this country is to increase the imbalance of forces between the NATO Powers and the Warsaw Pact Powers, and that is the fundamental reason why we condemn the Government tonight.
I do not know what will happen in the Division Lobbies. I do not know whether the hon. Member for Edinburgh, Central (Mr. Cook) and some of his hon. Friends will happily tread their measure into the Lobby to welcome a policy with which they fundamentally disagree. Perhaps they will, but a Government who rely on support like that are a weak Government. A Government who rely on that unwilling and almost inconsistent support for the defence of Britain are an unworthy Government.

9.30 p.m.

The Minister of State for Defence (Mr. William Rodgers): I have listened with great attention and some pleasure to the right hon. Member for Chipping Barnet (Mr. Maudling). His speeches are usually serious and often ingenious, and have the merit also of being short. I have enjoyed them over the years and learned from them. I am still prepared to be the right hon. Gentleman's pupil, on the basis of his performance tonight, but there was a good deal of the pot calling the kettle black.
The right hon. Gentleman's period in the Cabinet from 1959 to 1964 was marked by a fall in the percentage of gross national product going to defence. At the same time, his period as Chancellor

of the Exchequer ended with a massive balance of payments deficit and a major economic crisis. [Interruption.] I advise right hon. and hon. Members to wait. They may laugh too soon.
The right hon. Member for Chipping Barnett and other hon. Members will remember the debate on 11th November 1964. By common consent—it was the first Budget debate after the General Election—defence was seen to be among the public expenditure programmes running away wildly. I think that the failure to get value for money in the defence field had by then become a byword. I am reluctant, out of courtesy and generosity, to chide the right hon. Gentleman over events so long ago, but such a mixed record, to put it no higher, does not suggest that he is necessarily best qualified to lecture the House, even in his gentle way, on these matters.
I should like to add my own word of thanks for the work of the Defence and External Affairs Sub-Committee of the Expenditure Committee I am an unrepentant Parliament man in that the experience of almost eight years of assorted office has strengthened my belief that the Executive always needs watching.
The task of Ministers in every Department, but particularly in the Ministry of Defence, is to bring scepticism and a political dimension to bear on decisionmaking. I note what the right hon. Member for Stafford and Stone (Mr. Fraser) said on this point, and I agree with him. The military mind of its nature looks for certainty and a settled course. Ministers must be prepared to challenge the conventional wisdom and to encourage the possibility of doubt. I should like to believe that the Defence and External Affairs Sub-Committee will proceed in a similar way, perhaps endeavouring to take a longer view—longer even than electoral vagaries allow Governments to do.
Concerning the Third Report of the Expenditure Committee, I appreciate the kind remarks which refer to my part in the negotiations for a new agreement on Hong Kong—also touched on by my hon. Friend the Member for Gateshead, East (Mr. Conlan) in his speech yesterday. I am sure that the result was fair to all concerned.
In the immediate years ahead, Hong Kong will be making an increasing contribution to the cost of the garrison. From


1978 to 1979 this will amount to 75 per cent. in an agreement which will run from seven years initially and will be open to further renewal. The sums involved are a useful net contribution towards the defence budget. At the same time—this answers, at least in passing, what a number of hon. Members have mentioned—I am satisfied, as is my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State, that the remaining garrison will be adequate for its purpose.
There have been 18 separate Back Bench contributions to the debate, and I wish that I could refer to them all.

Sir Anthony Royle: Before the right hon. Gentleman leaves the subject of the Far East, will he say something about the Government's plans for the proposed withdrawal of a Gurkha battalion from Brunei, since the Sultan is prepared to pay for this battalion and for the reinforcement of it if that is necessary?

Mr. Rodgers: I can only say that discussions are continuing on this matter and that my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary will be reporting to the House as soon as possible.
Among the matters which I cannot deal with at any length today is Northern Ireland. It was referred to by the hon. Members for Belfast, North (Mr. Carson) and for Epping Forest (Mr. Biggs-Davison). There are frequent occasions for discussion of Northern Ireland affairs and I hope that hon. Members will understand if I do not go into them tonight.
My hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh, Central (Mr. Cook) spoke about the threat. Perhaps I can say that even in so far as I disagree with him, as I have done on previous occasions, I preferred the tone of his remarks to the tone adopted, I believe, by the hon. Member for Macclesfield (Mr. Winterton). Not only did I listen to my hon. Friend; I have even read his interesting Tribune article. I agree with him that this one area in which the ministerial scepticism to which I have referred should be applied, and I share his view of the dangers of what I think he called the "worst case analysis". However, he has misinterpreted the table on page 60 of the White Paper, and he has made inadequate allowance

for the very heavy balance of advantage to the Soviet Union in attack submarines, even though there is rough parity in surface ships. We may wish to return to these figures, and we can do so on a quieter occasion.
My hon. Friend the Member for Brighouse and Spenborough (Mr. Jackson) made a wide-ranging speech and referred to Cyprus. I can give him the assurances for which he asked, as he asked for them last year, but I shall also write to him.
The right hon. Member for Farnham (Mr. Macmillan) asked for an assurance that the Royal Navy would continue to operate world-wide. The answer is "Yes". He also asked about naval capability once "Ark Royal" is phased out. The ship will continue in service for some years ahead, and when she is withdrawn from service her Buccaneers and Phantoms will be taken over by the RAF and used in a maritime role. The "Ark Royal" also makes an important contribution to the ASW capability which the new class of cruisers is designed to continue.
Several hon. Members, including the right hon. Member for Stafford and Stone, mentioned our Reserve Forces and suggested that they were inadequate for our military tasks. I appreciate that this has been a matter of great interest to the right hon. Gentleman for a number of years. I can only say that we do not take his view. As he knows, we rely first upon our professional forces, but the Reserves have a particularly valuable role to play on the central front of Europe as reinforcements for BAOR, which would approximately double in size by the addition of reserves on mobilisation. I regret if I have been unable to convince the right hon. Gentleman this evening, but this is properly a matter that we should consider on a further occasion. It might even be a matter, like the whole question of the threat, which the Expenditure Committee would choose to examine.
The hon. and gallant Member for Winchester (Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles) raised a number of detailed questions on the effects of our withdrawal from the Far East and the Indian Ocean. These decisions were, of course, announced in last year's White Paper and were fully debated at the time. However, I share


in particular his interest in Gan, and I hope that I may allow myself just a little sentimental regret, improper though that may be, at its passing. The detailed points that the hon. and gallant Gentleman mentioned have been under discussion. I realise that they are of concern to him. I shall certainly write to him about them or, if he wishes, give an answer that is more generally available to hon. Members who are interested in them.
My hon. Friend the Member for Birmingham, Selly Oak (Mr. Litterick) and my hon. Friend the Member for Harlow (Mr. Newens) returned to the question of the nature of the defence savings. As they made clear, and as the tables in the White Paper and in the Public Expenditupre White Paper emphasise, these are complex matters. Regretfully, I doubt whether I shall find it possible to reach a rapid agreement with them, or with my hon. Friend the hon. Member for Salford, East (Mr. Allaun), on their interpretation. For the moment, I am content to rest on what my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State said yesterday.
However, let me simply say this, because it is important to repeat it. Reductions in public expenditure have always—in Opposition and in Government—been measured against planned programmes at constant prices. This is a well-established convention applying to all programmes, both civil and military. On this basis, taking together the defence review savings, the additional £110 million reduction last year and the recent public expenditure survey reductions, the defence budget has been reduced by £3,200 million between 1975–76 and 1979–80. Moreover, apart from what I say is a well-established convention about programmes, as a result of the latest round of public expenditure survey reductions, we now find that the defence budget totals are due to fall in absolute terms from 1975–76 levels. On this basis there is a reduction, for good or ill—as right hon. Members of the Opposition might think—of £18 million by 1978–79, which is repeated in the closing year of 1979–80 as the programme remains level during this period.

Mr. Frank Allaun: Does my right hon. Friend admit that there is to be an increase in the current year's spending by 1979–80, according to page 133 of the

Public Expenditure White Paper, of £244 million in real terms? Secondly, is it fair to purport to be reducing expenditure as all the newspapers report it—because they use the phrases of the Minister and his right hon. Friend—when the truth that real spending is rising is being concealed from the newspapers?

Mr. Rodgers: I do not believe that my hon. Friend is being fair when he says that the truth is being concealed from newspapers. He has had his opportunity today and on previous occasions, and so have other of my hon. Friends, to seek to persuade this House and the general public that the figures that I have set before the House are in some way untrue or deceiving.
I return to what I said. I am satisfied that there will be absolute savings, although they will be small, during the period to which I referred. If my hon. Friend tested his own choice of figures against the figures of my right hon. Friends who have responsibilities in other fields, he would find that they would be saying that there have been heavy cuts in their programmes and that they were no longer able to spend in the years ahead the sums of money that they expected on previous occasions to be spending. This is the language with which we are all familiar. I remember that my hon. Friend the Member for Salford, East has argued in Opposition against cuts in social programmes very much on the basis of cuts against planned intentions.
I should like to make a reference to the particularly splendid speech made yesterday by my hon. Friend the Member for West Lothian (Mr. Dalyell). I think that all those who heard it enjoyed it. It was admirably supplemented this evening by the remarks of my hon. Friend the Member for Fife, Central (Mr. Hamilton). We shall try to help my hon. Friends in the way they have asked. I shall watch with interest the argument between them and SNP Members.
I should like to say a few words about the public attitude to defence—in other words, the attitude of what my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South (Mr. George) loosely called the taxpayers. Of course there is a horror of war, but for the great majority of people this is not incompatible with maintaining our defences—rather the reverse.
I have been looking at the only available survey, which shows that 96 per cent. of the population believe that the Armed Forces are essential, a proportion which has remained remarkably steady for at least the last five years. Even among younger people, whose doubts are understandable, the figure is very much the same, although perhaps the intensity of conviction is somewhat less. We should all like to have defence on the cheap. But the great majority of people feel in their guts that our Armed Forces matter, and they would not willingly vote for a party that was thought to be soft on defence. I hope that my hon. Friends who signed the amendment will bear that point in mind.
The nub of the matter in this debate—the issue upon which the Opposition are to divide the House—is whether the additional cuts set out in the Public Expenditure White Paper were justified. The outcome of the defence review is broadly accepted on the Opposition Benches. Nobody seriously suggests that a Conservative Government would seek to reverse it. The key figure is the extra £193 million now to be found in 1978–79.
It is no secret that Defence Ministers would have preferred that cut not to be made. But my right hon. Friends the Secretaries of State for Education and Science, for Social Services and for the Environment, to name only a few, would have preferred no cut in their programme. The only question was how the money could be found, once the quantum of savings had been agreed by the Cabinet. It is quite unrealistic—and right hon. and hon. Members who have served in the Cabinet know this in their hearts—to have expected defence to escape entirely. That is not the way in which Governments do business. It is not the way of the world. That is not how successive Administrations have behaved, including those in which the right hon. Member for Chipping Barnet and the right hon. Lady the Leader of the Opposition have served. It is humbug to suggest otherwise.
The argument goes that if we were down to bedrock last summer, what room was there for cuts? Much has been made of the remarks of the Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Michael Carver. I leave aside for the moment the propriety

of quoting him in the Opposition's amendment. But what did he say? Indeed, how many Opposition Members have read the whole transcript of his remarks? In practice, those remarks were remarkably cautious. In answer to a question whether there could be any further cut, Sir Michael gave no explicit reply but, instead, referred to our geographical commitment. The real burden of Sir Michael's message was that the touchstone of our defence effort lay in the force levels of our contribution to NATO. In practice, as the House knows, these have not been affected by the further cuts. On the contrary, as paragraphs 44 and 45 of the defence White Paper make clear, we have agreed five measures and offered four more calculated to strengthen NATO. Unlike the Opposition's amendment, I do not call upon the Chief of the Defence Staff in evidence. If the Opposition insist on doing so, they should play it straight.
Of course, no Chief of Staff can welcome the consequences of defence cuts, but neither can any soldier, sailor or airman, or any civilian employed by the Defence Department. That is not the point. The question is whether the further cut is tolerable. Yesterday my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Defence described measures in the area of indirect support which will have to be taken to find savings of about £100 million in the key year 1978–79. That leaves about £90 million worth of savings still to be found. We have deliberately not yet identified those in any detail. We are talking about savings which are still two years away. Because of the sheer size and complexity of the programme and its dynamic character, there is bound to be a good deal of change in the intervening period.
A factor affecting the programme is unresolved international negotiations, which could have direct implications for the defence budget. The hon. Member for Woking (Mr. Onslow) rightly raised the question of Anglo-German offset. As he said, the existing agreement expired yesterday, and we shall, therefore, need a new agreement. The Prime Minister discussed the question with the Federal German Chancellor when he was in this country in February, and they agreed that a solution could and should be found. The House will not expect me to anticipate


the content of the arrangements which are still to be made. The House recognises that keeping an Army of 55,000 men in Germany, together with a substantial number of aircraft, is a heavy financial burden. The latest estimated balance of payments costs of our Forces there for 1975–76 is about £400 million. The Federal Republic has helped us to offset those costs in the past and we expect it to do so in the future.
I must repeat that we are not saying that the official savings are painless—on the contrary, as witness the reaction of our civilian staffs. From the beginning, however, the central importance of NATO was clearly established, not only by Defence Ministers but by the Prime Minister and the whole of the Cabinet. We do not believe that our measures have weakened NATO. I am sure Conservative hon. Members will accept that they do no service to NATO by suggesting otherwise, once the events of today are over.
My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State paid a proper tribute to the civilian staffs yesterday. I become irritated by remarks suggesting that our civilian staffs—"civil servants" and "officials" are the pejorative words usually applied—can be lightly discarded after years of efficient and devoted service to successive Administrations. These are difficult times for them, but we hope that close consultation will ease the problems. As often as is possible we shall identify the options well ahead of decisions, so that the views of staff and trade unions can be taken fully into account. I recognise that the need for confidentiality at certain stages raises the question of when, and in what manner, hon. Members should be informed. I ask the House to recognise our management responsibilities towards our civilian staff.
To return to the heart of the matter, I am satisfied that the cuts announced in the Public Expenditure White Paper are consistent with Britain's commitment to the collective security of the West through NATO. In that sense, I have nothing to withdraw from what I said in the House on 13th May 1974 about the acceptability of defence savings generally or from what I said on my own account on 10th December 1975.
It would be rash to predict the future. A rashness which is so attractive in others

is often dangerous for a politician. No one can say for sure what will happen to our economy. No one can say for sure how current defence programmes will work out. No one can say for sure whether there will be progress in the MBFR talks. I was glad to note that the right hon. Member for Chipping Barnet hopes that there will be progress.
While, however, the present cuts are acceptable and the search for economies continues in any well-run Department, I do not see room for further similar cuts in the foreseeable future. [HON. MEMBERS: "That was what the right hon. Gentleman said last year."] For me at least, enough is enough. [HON. MEMBERS: "Hear, hear."] Here I rest with my hon. Friend the Member for Southampton, Itchen (Mr. Mitchell) in what he said today.
In the few closing minutes I shall try to define the extent of my agreement and disagreement with my hon. Friends below the Gangway. I agree with them that war is obscene. My hon. Friend the Member for Salford, East summed it up yesterday when he said that he was opposed to war and militarism on humanitarian grounds. On that basis we are all opposed to war. It is perverse and horrifying that the nations of the world spend to much of their skill in seeking to produce and perfect weapons of mass destruction. It is tragic that even the smallest and poorest of them eagerly seek sophisticated equipment at vast expense.
But pacifism must define its terms. As a personal commitment, it earns respect What is not acceptable, however, is to fall short of a declaration of pacifism but to advocate a course which subtly leads to unilateral disarmament. This is where the greatest dangers lie: to say that we should constantly save on defence without indicating where we should stop; to advocate the cancellation of weapons systems without showing by what alternative means the need can be met; to deplore the scenario whereby NATO confronts the Warsaw Pact without explaining how it can be changed consistent with stability.
The shortcomings of the Opposition are of a different kind. They see defence and defence expenditure as inviolate, separate from the prosaic and humdrum problems of every day. They believe that provided the armour is shining bright


there is no need to look at the condition of the man inside. Of course, they are aware of the harsh realities of economic life. My right hon. Friend hit the nail on the head yesterday in his intervention drawing attention to their record when in Government. When they are in Opposition, they adopt a totally different stance. I noticed the declaration of Conservative defence policy yesterday contained in three pale sentences quoted from what the Leader of the Opposition had said.
If a week is a long time in politics, two years speaking from this Bench on defence can feel like a lifetime. [HON. MEMBERS: "Too long."] But, given the hazards of the ballot box, who knows but

that this experience may now be moving peacefully towards its close? Looking back, however, I am more than ever convinced that it is a central task of Government—of all Governments—to find a means of continuing to ensure the adequate defence of Britain even when the going is rough. The money we spend pays for men and arms, the outward and visible signs of our defence. But the purpose is measured by the fact of this Parliament over which you preside, Mr. Speaker, by the values we cherish, by our right to a vision of what could be better, and by our freedom to realise it.

Question put, That the amendment be made:—

The House divided: Ayes 263, Noes 309.

Division No. 104.
AYES
[10.0 p m.


Adley, Robert
Dean, Paul (N Somerset)
Higgins, Terence L.


Aitken, Jonathan
Dodsworth, Geoffrey
Holland, Philip


Alison, Michael
Douglas-Hamilton, Lord James
Hordern, Peter


Amery, Rt Hon Julian
Drayson, Burnaby
Howe, Rt Hon Sir Geoffrey


Arnold, Tom
du Cann, Rt Hon Edward
Howell, David (Guildford)


Atkins, Rt Hon H. (Spelthorne)
Durant, Tony
Howell, Ralph (North Norfolk)


Awdry, Daniel
Dykes, Hugh
Hunt, David (Wirral)


Baker, Kenneth
Eden, Rt Hon Sir John
Hunt, John


Banks, Robert
Edwards, Nicholas (Pembroke)
Hurd, Douglas


Bell, Ronald
Elliott, Sir William
Hutchison, Michael Clark


Bennett, Sir Frederic (Torbay)
Emery, Peter
Irving, Charles (Cheltenham)


Bennett, Dr Reginald (Fareham)
Eyre, Reginald
James, David


Benyon, W.
Fairbairn, Nicholas
Jenkin, Rt Hn P. (Wanst'd & W'df'd)


Berry, Hon Anthony
Fairgrieve, Russell
Jessel, Toby


Biffen, John
Farr, John
Johnson Smith, G. (E Grinstead)


Biggs-Davison, John
Fell, Anthony
Jones, Arthur (Daventry)


Blaker, Peter
Finsberg, Geoffrey
Jopling, Michael


Body, Richard
Fisher, Sir Nigel
Joseph, Rt Hon Sir Keith


Boscawen, Hon Robert
Fletcher, Alex (Edinburgh N)
Kaberry, Sir Donald


Bottomley, Peter
Fletcher-Cooke, Charles
Kellett-Bowman, Mrs Elaine


Bowden, A. (Brighton, Kemptown)
Fookes, Miss Janet
Kershaw, Anthony


Boyson, Dr Rhodes (Brent)
Forman, Nigel
Kimball, Marcus


Bradford, Rev Robert
Fowler, Norman (Sutton C'f'd)
King, Evelyn (South Dorset)


Braine, Sir Bernard
Fox, Marcus
King, Tom (Bridgwater)


Brittan, Leon
Fraser, Rt Hon H. (Stafford & St)
Kirk, Sir Peter


Brocklebank-Fowler, C.
Fry, Peter
Kitson, Sir Timothy


Brotherton, Michael
Galbraith, Hon T. G. D.
Knight, Mrs Jill


Brown, Sir Edward (Bath)
Gardner, Edward (S Fylde)
Knox, David


Bryan, Sir Paul
Gilmour, Rt Hon Ian (Chesham)
Lamont, Norman


Buchanan-Smith, Alick
Gilmour, Sir John (East Fife)
Lane, David


Buck, Anthony
Glyn, Dr Alan
Langford-Holt, Sir John


Budgen, Nick
Godber, Rt Hon Joseph
Latham, Michael (Melton)


Bulmer, Esmond
Goodhew, Victor
Lawrence, Ivan


Burden, F. A.
Goodlad, Alastair
Lawson, Nigel


Butler, Adam (Bosworth)
Gorst, John
Lester, Jim (Beeston)


Carlisle, Mark
Gow, Ian (Eastbourne)
Lloyd, Ian


Carson, John
Gower, Sir Raymond (Barry)
Loveridge, John


Chalker, Mrs Lynda
Grant, Anthony (Harrow C)
Luce, Richard


Channon, Paul
Gray, Hamish
McAdden, Sir Stephen


Clark, Alan (Plymouth, Sutton)
Griffiths, Eldon
McCrindle, Robert


Clark, William(Croydon S)
Grist, Ian
McCusker, H.


Clarke, Kenneth (Rushcliffe)
Grylls, Michael
Macfarlane, Neil


Clegg, Walter
Hall, Sir John
MacGregor, John


Cockcroft, John
Hall-Davis, A. G. F.
Macmillan, Rt Hon M. (Farnham)


Cooke, Robert (Bristol W)
Hamilton, Michael (Salisbury)
McNair-Wilson, M. (Newbury)


Cope, John
Hampson, Dr Keith
McNalr-Wllson, P. (New Forest)


Cordis, John H.
Hannam, John
Madel, David


Cormack, Patrick
Harrison, Col Sir Harwood (Eye)
Marshall, Michael (Arundel)


Corrie, John
Harvle Anderson, Rt Hon Miss
Marten, Neil


Costain, A. P.
Hastings, Stephen
Mates, Michael


Critchley, Julian
Havers, Sir Michael
Mather, Carol


Crouch, David
Hawkins, Paul
Maude, Angus


Crowder, F. P.
Heseltlne, Michael
Maudling, Rt Hon Reginald


Davies, Rt Hon J. (Knutsford)
Hicks, Robert
Mawby, Ray




Maxwell-Hyslop, Robin
Pym, Rt Hon Francis
Stanbrook, Ivor


Mayhew, Patrick
Raison, Timothy
Stanley, John


Meyer, Sir Anthony
Rathbone, Tim
Steen, Anthony (Wavertree)


Miller, Hal (Bromsgrove)
Rees, Peter (Dover & Deal)
Stokes, John


Mills, Peter
Rees-Davies, W. R.
Stradling Thomas, J.


Miscampbell, Norman
Renton, Rt Hon Sir D. (Hunts)
Tapsell, Peter


Mitchell, David (Basingstoke)
Renton, Tim (Mid-Sussex)
Taylor, R. (Croydon NW)


Moate, Roger
Ridley, Hon Nicholas
Taylor, Teddy (Cathcart)


Molyneaux, James
Rifkind, Malcolm
Tebbit, Norman


Monro, Hector
Rippon, Rt Hon Geoffrey
Temple-Morris, Peter


Montgomery, Fergus
Roberts, Michael (Cardiff NW)
Thatcher, Rt Hon Margaret


Moore, John (Croydon C)
Roberts, Wyn (Conway)
Thomas, Rt Hon P. (Hendon S)


More, Jasper (Ludlow)
Rodgers, Sir John (Sevenoaks)
Townsend, Cyril D.


Morgan, Geraint
Ross, William (Londonderry)
Trotter, Neville


Morgan-Giles, Rear-Admiral
Rossi, Hugh (Hornsey)
Tugendhat, Christopher


Morris, Michael (Northampton S)
Rost, Peter (SE Derbyshire)
van Straubenzee, W. R.


Morrison, Charles (Devizes)
Royle, Sir Anthony
Vaughan, Dr Gerard


Morrison, Hon Peter (Chester)
Sainsbury, Tim
Vlggers, Peter


Mudd, David
St. John-Stevas, Norman
Wakeham, John


Neave, Airey
Scott, Nicholas
Walder, David (Clitheroe)


Nelson, Anthony
Scott-Hopkins, James
Walker-Smith, Rt Hon Sir Derek


Neubert, Michael
Shaw, Giles (Pudsey)
Walters, Dennis


Newton, Tony
Shaw, Michael (Scarborough)
Warren, Kenneth


Normanton, Tom
Shelton, William (Streatham)
Wealherill, Bernard


Nott, John
Shepherd, Colin
Wells, John


Onslow, Cranley
Shersby, Michael
Whitelaw, Rt Hon William


Oppenheim, Mrs Sally
Silvester, Fred
Wiggin, Jerry


Page, John (Harrow West)
Sims, Roger
Winterton, Nicholas


Page, Rt Hon R. Graham (Crosby)
Skeet, T. H. H.
Wood, Rt Hon Richard


Pattle, Geoffrey
Smith, Dudley (Warwick)
Young, Sir G. (Ealing, Acton)


Percival, Ian
Speed, Keith
Younger, Hon, George


Pink, R. Bonner
Spence, John



Powell, Rt Hon J. Enoch
Splcer, Michael (S Worcester)
TELLERS FOR THE AYES:


Price, David (Eastlelgh)
Sproat, lain
Mr. Spencer Le Marchant and


Prior, Rt Hon James
Stainton, Keith
Mr. Cecil Parkinson


NOES


Abse, Leo
Concannon, J. D.
Fletcher, Ted (Darlington)


Allaun, Frank
Conlan, Bernard
Foot, Rt Hon Michael


Anderson, Donald
Cook, Robin F. (Edin C)
Ford, Ben


Archer, Peter
Corbett, Robin
Forrester, John


Armstrong, Ernest
Cox, Thomas (Tooting)
Fowler, Gerald (The Wrekin)


Ashley, Jack
Craigen, J. M. (Maryhill)
Fraser, John (Lambeth, N'w'd)


Ashton, Joe
Crawford, Douglas
Freeson, Reginald


Atkins, Ronald (Preston N)
Crawshaw, Richard
Freud, Clement


Atkinson, Norman
Cronin, John
Garrett, John (Norwich S)


Bagier, Gordon A. T.
Crosland, Rt Hon Anthony
Garrett, W. E. (Wallsend)


Bain, Mrs Margaret
Cryer, Bob
George, Bruce


Barnett, Guy (Greenwich)
Cunningham, G. (Islington S)
Gilbert, Dr John


Barnett, Rt Hon Joel (Heywood)
Cunningham, Dr J. (Whiteh)
Ginsburg, David


Bates, Alf
Dalyell, Tarn
Golding, John


Bean, R. E.
Davidson, Arthur
Gould, Bryan


Bermett, Andrew (Stockport N)
Davies, Bryan (Enfield N)
Gourlay, Harry


Bidwell, Sydney
Davies, Denzil (LlaNeili)
Graham, Ted


Bishop, E. S.
Davies, Ifor (Gower)
Grant, George (Morpeth)


Blenkinsop, Arthur
Davis, Clinton (Hackney, C)
Grant, John (Islington C)


Boardman, H.
Deakins, Eric
Grimond, Rt Hon J.


Booth, Rt Hon Albert
Dean, Joseph (Leeds W)
Grocott, Bruce


Boothroyd, Miss Betty
de Freltas, Rt Hon Sir Geoffrey
Hamilton, James (Bothwell)


Bottomley, Rt Hon Arthur
Delargy, Hugh
Hamilton, W. W. (Central Fife)


Boyden, James (Bish Auck)
Dell, Rt Hon Edmund
Hardy, Peter


Bradley, Tom
Dempsey, James
Harper, Joseph


Bray, Dr Jeremy
Doig, Peter
Harrison, Walter (Wakefield)


Brown, Hugh D. (Provan)
Douglas-Mann, Bruce
Hart, Rt Hon Judith


Brown, Robert C. (Newcastle W)
Duffy, A. E. P.
Hatton, Frank


Brown, Ronald (Hackney S)
Dunn, James A.
Hayman, Mrs Helene


Buchen, Norman
Dunnett, Jack
Healey, Rt Hon Denis


Buchanan, Richard
Dunwoody, Mrs Gwyneth
Heffer, Eric S.


Butler, Mrs Joyce(Wood Green)
Eadle, Alex
Hooley, Frank


Callaghan, Jim (Middleton & P)
Edge, Geoff
Hooson, Emlyn


Campbell, Ian
Edwards, Robert (Wolv SE)
Horam, John


Canavan, Dennis
Ellis, John (Brigg & Scun)
Howell, Rt Hon Denis


Cant, R. B.
Ellis, Tom (Wrexham)
Hoyle, Doug (Nelson)


Carmlchael, Neil
English, Michael
Huckfield, Les


Carter, Ray
Evans, Fred (Caerphilly)
Hughes, Rt Hon C. (Anglesey)


Carter-Jones, Lewis
Evans, Gwyntor (Carmarthen)
Hughes, Mark (Durham)


Cartwright, John
Evans, loan (Aberdare)
Hughes, Robert (Aberdeen N)


Castle, Rt Hon Barbara
Evans, John (Newton)
Hughes, Roy (Newport)


Clemitson, Ivor
Ewlng, Harry (Stirling)
Hunter, Adam


Cocks, Michael (Bristol S)
Faulds, Andrew
Irvine, Rt Hon Sir A. (Edge Hill)


Cohen, Stanley
Fernyhough, Rt Hon E
Irving, Rt Hon S. (Dartford)


Coleman, Donald
Flannery, Martin
Jackson, Colin (Brighouse)


Colquhoun, Ms Maureen
Fletcher, Raymond (Ilkeston)
Jackson, Miss Margaret (Lincoln)







Janner, Greville
Mitchell, R. C. (Soton, lichen)
Silverman, Julius


Jay, Rt Hon Douglas
Molloy, William
Skinner, Dennis


Jeger, Mrs Lena
Moonman, Eric
Small, William


Jenkins, Hugh (Putney)
Morris, Charles R. (Openshaw)
Smith, John (N Lanarkshire)


Jenkins, Rt Hon Roy (Stechford)
Morris, Rt Hon J. (Aberavon)
Spearing, Nigel


John, Brynmor
Moyle, Roland
Spriggs, Leslie


Johnson, James (Hull West)
Mulley, Rt Hon Frederick
Stallard, A. W.


Johnson, Walter (Derby S)
Murray, Rt Hon Ronald King
Stewart, Donald (Western Isles)


Jones, Alec (Rhondda)
Newens, Stanley
Stewart, Rt Hon M. (Fulham)


Jones, Barry (East Flint)
Noble, Mike
Stoddart, David


Jones, Dan (Burnley)
Oakes, Gordon
Stott, Roger


Judd, Frank
Ogden, Eric
Strang, Gavin


Kaufman, Gerald
O'Halloran, Michael
Strauss, Rt Hon G. R.


Kerr, Russell
Orbach, Maurice
Summerskill, Hon Dr Shirley


Kilroy-Silk, Robert
Orme, Rt Hon Stanley
Swain, Thomas


Kinnock Neil
Ovenden, John
Taylor, Mrs Ann (Bolton W)


Lambie, David
Owen, Dr David
Thomas, Jeffrey (Abertillery)


Lamborn, Harry
Padley, Walter
Thomas, Mike (Newcastle E)


Lamond, James
Palmer, Arthur
Thomas, Ron (Bristol NW)


Latham, Arthur (Paddington)
Park, George
Thompson, George


Leadbitter, Ted
Parker, John
Thorne, Stan (Preston South)


Lee, John
Parry, Robert
Tierney, Sydney


Lestor, Miss Joan (Eton & Slough)
Pavitt, Laurie
Tinn, James


Lever, Rt Hon Harold
Peart, Rt Hon Fred
Tomlinson, John


Lewis, Ron (Carlisle)
Pendry, Tom
Torney, Tom


Upton, Marcus
Penhaligon, David
Tuck, Raphael


Litterick, Tom
Perry, Ernest
Urwin, T. W.


Lomas, Kenneth
Phipps, Dr Colin
Varley, Rt Hon Eric G.


Loyden, Eddie
Prentice, Rt Hon Reg
Wainwrlght, Edwin (Dearne V)


Luard, Evan
Prescott, John
Waiden, Brian (B'ham, L'dyw'd)


Lyon, Alexander (York)
Price. C. (Lewlsham W)
Walker, Harold (Doncaster)


Lyons, Edward (Bradford W)
Price, Wililam (Rugby)
Walker, Terry (Kingswood)


Mabon, Dr J. Dickson
Radice, Giles
watkins, David


McCartney, Hugh
Reid, George
Watkinos, John


MacCormick, lain
Richardson, Miss Jo
Watt, Hamish


McElhone, Frank
Roberts, Albert (Normanton)
weetch Ken


McGuire, Michael (Ince)
Roberts, Gwilym (Cannock)
Weitzman, David


Mackintosh, John P.
Robinson, Geoffrey
Welsh Andrew


Maclennan, Robert
Roderick, Caerwyn
White,' Frank R. (Bury)


McMillan, Tom (Glasgow C)
Rodgers, George (Chorley)
White, James (Pollok)


McNamara, Kevin
Rodgers, William (Stockton)
Whitehead, Phillip


Madden, Max
Rooker, J. W.
Whitlock, William


Magee, Bryan
Roper, John
Willey, Rt Hon Frederick


Mahon, Simon
Rose, Paul B.
Williams, Alan (Swansea W)


Mallalieu, J. P. W.
Ross, Stephen (Isle of Wight)
Williams, Rt Hon Shirley (Hertford)


Marks, Kenneth
Ross, Rt Hon W. (Kilmarnock)
Williams, Sir Thomas


Marquand, David
Rowlands, Ted
Wilson, Alexander (Hamilton)


Marshall, Dr Edmund (Goole)
Sandelson, Neville
Wilson, Gordon (Dundee E)


Marshall, Jim (Leicester S)
Sedgemore, Brian
Wilson, William (Coventry SE)


Mason, Rt Hon Roy
Selby, Harry
Wise, Mrs Audrey


Maynard, Miss Joan
Shaw, Arnold (llford South)
Woodall, Alec


Meacher, Michael
Sheldon, Robert (Ashton-u-Lyne)
Woof, Robert


Mellish, Rt Hon Robert
Shore, Rt Hon Peter
Wrlgglesworth, Ian


Mendelson, John
Short, Rt Hon E. (Newcastle C)
Young, David (Bolton E)


Mikardo, Ian
Short, Mrs Renée (Wolv NE)



Millan, Bruce
Silkin, Rt Hon John (Deptford)
TELLERS FOR THE NOES:


Miller, Dr M. S. (E Kilbride)
Silkin, Rt Hon S. C. (Dulwich)
Mr. J. D. Dormand and


Miller, Mrs Millie (IIford N)
Sillars, James
Mr. Peter Snape.

Question accordingly negatived.

Main Question put:

The House divided: Ayes 305, Noes 257.

Division No. 105.]
AYES
[10.14 p.m.


Abse, Leo
Booth, Rt Hon Albert
Clemitson, Ivor


Allaun, Frank
Boothroyd, Miss Betty
Cocks, Michael (Bristol S)


Anderson, Donald
Bottomley, Rt Hon Arthur
Cohen, Stanley


Archer, Peter
Boyden, James (Bish Auck)
Coleman, Donald


Armstrong, Ernest
Bradley, Tom
Colquhoun, Ms Maureen


Ashley, Jack
Bray, Dr Jeremy
Concannon, J. D.


Ashton, Joe
Brown, Hugh D. (Provan)
Conlan, Bernard


Atkins, Ronald (Preston N)
Brown, Robert C. (Newcastle W)
Cook, Robin F. (Edin C)


Atkinson, Norman
Brown, Ronald (Hackney S)
Corbett, Robin


Bagier, Gordon A. T.
Buchan, Norman
Cox, Thomas (Tooting)


Bain, Mrs Margaret
Buchanan, Richard
Craigen, J. M. (Maryhill)


Barnett, Guy (Greenwich)
Butler, Mrs Joyce(Wood Green)
Crawford, Douglas


Barnett, Rt Hon Joel (Heywood)
Callaghan, Jim (Middleton & P)
Crawshaw, Richard


Bates, Alf
Campbell, Ian
Cronin, John


Bean, R. E.
Cant, R. B.
Crosland, Rt Hon Anthony


Bennett, Andrew (Stockport N)
Carmichael, Neil
Cryer, Bob


Bldwell, Sydney
Carter, Ray
Cunningham, G. (Islington S)


Bishop, E. S.
Carter-Jones, Lewis
Cunningham, Dr J. (Whiteh)


Blenkinsop, Arthur
Cartwright, John
Daryell, Tarn


Boardman, H.
Castle, Rt Hon Barbara
Davidson, Arthur




Davies, Bryan (Enfield N)
John, Brynmor
Reid, George


Davies, Denzil (LlaNelli)
Johnson, James (Hull West)
Richardson, Miss Jo


Davies, lfor (Gower)
Johnson, Walter (Derby S)
Roberts, Albert (Normanton)


Davis, Clinton (Hackney, C)
Jones, Alec (Rhondda)
Roberts, Gwllym (Cannock)


Deakins, Erie
Jones, Barry (East Flint)
Robinson, Geoffrey


Dean, Joseph (Leeds W)
Jones, Dan (Burnley)
Roderick, Caerwyn


de Freitas, Rt Hon Sir Geoffrey
Judd, Frank
Rodgers, George (Chorley)


Delargy, Hugh
Kaufman, Gerald
Rodgers, William (Stockton)


Dell, Rt Hon Edmund
Kerr, Russell
Rooker, J. W.


Dempsey, James
Kilroy-Silk, Robert
Roper, John


Dolg, Peter
Kinnock Neil
Rose, Paul B.


Douglas-Mann, Bruce
Lamble, David
Ross, Stephen (Isle of Wight)


Duffy, A. E. P.
Lamborn, Harry
Ross, Rt Hon W. (Kilmarnock)


Dunn, James A.
Lamond, James
Rowlands, Ted


Dunnett, Jack
Latham, Arthur (Paddington)
Sandelson, Neville


Dunwoody, Mrs Gwyneth
Leadbitter, Ted
Sedgemore, Brian


Eadie, Alex
Lee, John
Selby, Harry


Edge, Geoff
Lestor, Miss Joan (Eton & Slough)
Shaw, Arnold (llford South)


Edwards, Robert (Wolv SE)
Lever, Rt Hon Harold
Sheldon, Robert (Ashton-u-Lyne)


Elite, John (Brigg & Scun)
Lewis, Ron (Carlisle)
Shore, Rt Hon Peter


Ellis, Tom (Wrexham)
Lipton, Marcus
Short, Rt Hon E. (Newcastle C)


English, Michael
Litterick, Tom
Short, Mrs Renée (Wolv NE)


Evans, Fred (Caerphilly)
Loyden, Eddie
Silkin, Rt Hon John (Deptford)


Evans, loan (Aberdare)
Luard, Evan
Silkin, Rt Hon S. C. (Dulwich)


Evans, John (Newton)
Lyon, Alexander (York)
Silverman, Julius


Ewing, Harry (Stirling)
Lyons, Edward (Bradford W)
Skinner, Dennis


Faulds, Andrew
Mabon, Dr J. Dickson
Small, William


Fernyhough, Rt Hon E
McCartney, Hugh
Smith, John (N Lanarkshire)


Flannery, Martin
MacCormick, lain
Spearing, Nigel


Fletcher, Raymond (Ilkeston)
McElhone, Frank
Spriggs, Leslie


Fletcher, Ted (Darlington)
McGuire, Michael (Ince)
Stallard, A. W.


Foot, Rt Hon Michael
Mackintosh, John P.
Stewart, Donald (Western Isles)


Ford, Ben
Maclennan, Robert
Stewart, Rt Hon M. (Fulham)


Forrester, John
McMillan, Tom (Glasgow C)
Stoddart, David


Fowler, Gerald (The Wrekin)
McNamara, Kevin
Stott, Roger


Fraser, John (Lambeth, N'w'd)
Madden, Max
Strang, Gavin


Freeson, Reginald
Magee, Bryan
Strauss, Rt Hon G. R.


Freud, Clement
Mahon, Simon
Summerskill, Hon Dr Shirley


Garrett, John (Norwich S)
Mallalleu, J. P. W.
Swain, Thomas


Garrelt, W. E. (Wallsend)
Marks, Kenneth
Taylor, Mrs Ann (Bolton W)


George, Bruce
Marquand, David
Thomas, Jeffrey (Abertillery)


Gilbert, Dr John
Marshall, Dr Edmund (Goole)
Thomas, Mike (Newcastle E)


Ginsburg, David
Marshall, Jim (Leicester S)
Thomas, Ron (Bristol NW)


Golding, John
Mason, Rt Hon Roy
Thompson, George


Gould, Bryan
Maynard, Miss Joan
Thorne, Stan (Preston South)


Gourlay, Harry
Meacher, Michael
Tierney, Sydney


Graham, Ted
Mellish, Rt Hon Robert
Tinn, James


Grant, George (Morpeth)
Mendelson, John
Tomlinson, John


Grant, John (Islington C)
Mikardo, Ian
Torney, Tom


Grimond, Rt Hon J.
Millan, Bruce
Tuck, Raphael


Grocott, Bruce
Miller, Dr M. S. (E Kilbride)
Urwin, T. W.


Hamilton, James (Bothwell)
Miller, Mrs Millie (llford N)
Varley, Rt Hon Eric G.


Hamilton, W. W. (Central Fife)
Mitchell, R. C. (Soton, Itchen)
Wainwright, Edwin (Dearne V)


Hardy, Peter
Molloy, William
Waiden, Brian (B'ham, L'dyw'd)


Harper, Joseph
Moonman, Eric
Walker, Harold (Doncaster)


Harrison, Walter (Wakefield)
Morris, Charles R. (Openshaw)
Walker, Terry (Kingswood)


Hart, Rt Hon Judith
Morris, Rt Hon J. (Aberavon)
Ward, Michael


Hatton, Frank
Moyle, Roland
Watkins, David


Hayman, Mrs Helene
Mulley, Rt Hon Frederick
Watklnson, John


Healey, Rt Hon Denis
Murray, Rt Hon Ronald King
Watt, Hamish


Heffer, Eric S.
Newens, Stanley
Weetch, Ken


Hooley, Frank
Noble, Mike
Weitzman, David


Hooson, Emlyn
Oakes, Gordon
Welsh, Andrew


Horam, John
Ogden, Eric
White, Frank R. (Bury)


Howell, Rt Hon Denis
O'Halloran, Michael
White, James (Pollok)


Hoyle, Doug (Nelson)
Orbach, Maurice
Whitehead, Phillip


Huckfield, Les
Orme, Rt Hon Stanley
Whitiock, William


Hughes, Rt Hon C. (Anglesey)
Ovenden, John
Willey, Rt Hon Frederick


Hughes, Mark (Durham)
Owen, Dr David
Williams, Alan (Swansea W)


Hughes, Robert (Aberdeen N)
Padley, Walter
Williams, Rt Hon Shirley (Hertford)


Hughes. Roy (Newport)
Palmer, Arthur
Williams, Sir Thomas


Hunter, Adam
Park, George
Wilson, Alexander (Hamilton)


Irvine, Rt Hon Sir A. (Edge Hill)
Parker, John
Wilson, Gordon (Dundee E)


Irving, Rt Hon S. (Dartford)
Parry, Robert
Wilson, William (Coventry SE)


Jackson, Colin (Brighouse)
Pavitt, Laurie
Wise, Mrs Audrey


Jackson, Miss Margaret (Lincoln)
Peart, Rt Hon Fred
Woodall, Alec


Perry, Ernest
Pendry, Tom
Woof, Robert


Phipps, Dr Colin
Penhaligon, David
Wrlgglesworth, Ian


Janner, Greville
Prentice, Rt Hon Reg
Young, David (Bolton E)


Jay, Rt Hon Douglas
Prescott, John



Jeger, Mrs Lena
Price, C. (Lewlsham W)
TELLERS FOR THE AYES:


Jenkins, Hugh (Putney)
Price, William (Rugby)
Mr.[...] D. Dormand


Jenkins, Rt Hon Roy (Stechford)
Radice, Giles
Mr. Peter Snape.







NOES


Adley, Robert
Glyn, Dr Alan
Miscampbell, Norman


Aitken, Jonathan
Godber, Rt Hon Joseph
Mitchell, David (Basingstoke)


Alison, Michael
Goodhew, Victor
Moate, Roger


Amery, Rt Hon Julian
Goodlad, Alastair
Monro, Hector


Arnold, Tom
Gorst, John
Montgomery, Fergus


Atkins, Rt Hon H. (Spelthorne)
Gow, Ian (Eastbourne)
Moore, John (Croydon C)


Awdry, Daniel
Gower, Sir Raymond (Barry)
More, Jasper (Ludlow)


Baker, Kenneth
Grant, Anthony (Harrow C)
Morgan, Geraint


Banks, Robert
Gray, Hamish
Morgan-Giles, Rear-Admiral


Bell, Ronald
Griffiths, Eldon
Morris, Michael (Northampton S)


Bennett, Sir Frederic (Torbay)
Grist, Ian
Morrison, Charles (Devizes)


Bennett, Dr Reginald (Fareham)
Grylls, Michael
Morrison, Hon Peter (Chester)


Benyon, W.
Hall, Sir John
Mudd, David


Berry, Hon Anthony
Hall-Davis, A. G. F.
Neave, Airey


Biffen, John
Hamilton, Michael (Salisbury)
Nelson, Anthony


Biggs-Davison, John
Hampson, Dr Keith
Neubert, Michael


Blaker, Peter
Hannam, John
Newton, Tony


Body, Richard
Harrison, Col Sir Harwood (Eye)
Normanton, Tom


Boscawen, Hon Robert
Harvie Anderson, Rt Hon Miss
Nott, John


Bottomley, Peter
Hastings, Stephen
Onslow, Cranley


Bowden, A. (Brighton, Kemptown)
Havers, Sir Michael
Oppenheim, Mrs Sally


Boyson, Dr Rhodes (Brent)
Hawkins, Paul
Page, John (Harrow West)


Braine, Sir Bernard
Heseltine, Michael
Page, Rt Hon R. Graham (Crosby)


Brittan, Leon
Hicks, Robert
Pattle, Geoffrey


Brocklebank-Fowler, C.
Higgins, Terence L.
Percival, Ian


Brotherton, Michael
Holland, Philip
Pink, R. Bonner


Brown, Sir Edward (Bath)
Hordern, Peter
Price, David (Eastleigh)


Bryan, Sir Paul
Howe, Rt Hon Sir Geoffrey
Prior, Rt Hon James


Buchanan-Smith, Alick
Howell, David (Guildford)
Pym, Rt Hon Francis


Buck, Anthony
Howell, Ralph (North Norfolk)
Raison, Timothy


Budgen, Nick
Hunt, David (Wirral)
Rathbone, Tim


Bulmer, Esmond
Hunt, John
Rees, Peter (Dover & Deal)


Burden, F. A.
Hurd, Douglas
Rees-Davies, W. R.


Butler, Adam (Bosworth)
Hutchison, Michael Clark
Renton, Rt Hon Sir D. (Hunts)


Carlisle, Mark
Irving, Charles (Cheltenham)
Renton, Tim (Mid-Sussex)


Chalker, Mrs Lynda
James, David
Ridley, Hon Nicholas


Channon, Paul
Jenkin, Rt Hn P. (Wanst'd & W'df'd)
Rifkind, Malcolm


Clark, Alan (Plymouth, Sutton)
Jessel, Toby
Rippon, Rt Hon Geoffrey


Clark, William(Croydon S)
Johnson Smith, G. (E Grinstead)
Roberts, Michael (Cardiff NW)


Clarke, Kenneth (Rushcliffe)
Jones, Arthur (Daventry)
Roberts, Wyn (Conway)


Clegg, Walter
Jopling, Michael
Rodgers, Sir John (Sevenoaks)


Cockcroft, John
Joseph, Rt Hon Sir Keith
Rossi, Hugh (Hornsey)


Cooke, Robert (Bristol W)
Kaberry, Sir Donald
Rost, Peter (SE Derbyshire)


Cope, John
Kellett-Bowman, Mrs Elaine
Royle, Sir Anthony


Cordle, John H.
Kershaw, Anthony
Salnsbury, Tim


Cormack, Patrick
Kimball, Marcus
St. John-Stevas, Norman


Corrie, John
King, Evelyn (South Dorset)
Scott, Nicholas


Costain, A. P.
King, Tom (Bridgwater)
Scott-Hopkins, James


Crltchley, Julian
Kirk, Sir Peter
Shaw, Giles (Pudsey)


Crouch, David
Kitson, Sir Timothy
Shaw, Michael (Scarborough)


Crowder, F. P.
Knight, Mrs Jill
Shelton, William (Streatham)


Davies, Rt Hon J. (Knutsford)
Knox, David
Shepherd, Colin


Dean, Paul (N Somerset)
Lamont, Norman
Shersby, Michael


Dodsworth, Geoffrey
Lane, David
Silvester, Fred


Douglas-Hamilton, Lord James
Langford-Holt, Sir John
Sims, Roger


Drayson, Burnaby
Latham, Michael (Melton)
Skeet, T. H. H.


du Cann, Rt Hon Edward
Lawrence, Ivan
Smith, Dudley (Warwick)


Durant, Tony
Lawson, Nigel
Speed, Keith


Dykes, Hugh
Lester, Jim (Beeston)
Spence, John


Eden, Rt Hon Sir John
Lloyd, Ian
Spicer, Michael (S Worcester)


Edwards, Nicholas (Pembroke)
Loveridge, John
Sproat, lain


Elliott, Sir William
Luce, Richard
Stainton, Keith


Emery, Peter
McAdden, Sir Stephen
Stanbrook, Ivor


Eyre, Reginald
McCrindle, Robert
Stanley, John


Fairbairn, Nicholas
Macfarlane, Neil
Steen, Anthony (Wavertree)


Fairgrieve, Russell
MacGregor, John
Stokes, John


Farr, John
Macmillan, Rt Hon M. (Farnham)
Stradling Thomas, J.


Fell, Anthony
McNair-Wilson, M. (Newbury)
Tapsell, Peter


Finsberg, Geoffrey
McNalr-Wilson, P. (New Forest)
Taylor, R. (Croydon NW)


Fisher, Sir Nigel
Madel, David
Taylor, Teddy (Cathcart)


Fletcher, Alex (Edinburgh N)
Marshall, Michael (Arundel)
Tebbit, Norman


Fletcher-Cooke, Charles
Marten, Neil
Temple-Morris, Peter


Fookes, Miss Janet
Mates, Michael
Thatcher, Rt Hon Margaret


Forman, Nigel
Mather, Carol
Thomas, Rt Hon P. (Hendon S)


Fowler, Norman (Sutton C'f'd)
Maude, Angus
Townsend, Cyril D.


Fox, Marcus
Maudling, Rt Hon Reginald
Trotter, Neville


Fraser, Rt Hon H. (Stafford & St)
Mawby, Ray
Tugendhat, Christopher


Fry, Peter
Maxwell-Hyslop, Robin
van Straubenzee, W. R.


Galbraith, Hon T. G. D.
Mayhew, Patrick
Vaughan, Dr Gerard


Gardner, Edward (S Fyide)
Meyer, Sir Anthony
Viggers, Peter


Gilmour, Rt Hon Ian (Chesham)
Miller, Hal (Bromsgrove)
Wakeham, John


Gilmour. Sir John (East Fife)
Mills, Peter
Walder, David (Clitheroe)







Walker-Smith, Rt Hon Sir Derek
Whitelaw, Rt Hon William
Younger, Hon George


Walters, Dennis
Wlggin, Jerry



Warren, Kenneth
Winterton, Nicholas
TELLERS FOR THE NOES


Weatherill, Bernard
Wood, Rt Hon Richard
Mr, Spencer Le. Marchant and


Wells, John
Young, Sir G. (Ealing, Acton)
Mr. Cecil Parkinson.

Question accordingly agreed to.

Resolved,

That this House, recognising the need to provide adequately for the nation's security, welcomes the Statement on the Defence Estimates 1976 (Command Paper No. 6432):

and, being aware of the economic factors which have led to cuts in all sectors of public spending, notes with approval that the defence cuts envisaged will fall on support services rather than on front-line forces, thereby maintaining the British contribution to NATO, the security and territorial integrity of the United Kingdom and peace in Northern Ireland.

NORTHERN IRELAND DEVELOPMENT AGENCY

10.28 p.m.

The Minister of State, Northern Ireland Office (Mr. Stanley Orme): I beg to move,
That the Industries Development (Northern Ireland) Order 1976, a draft of which was laid before this House on 22nd March, be approved.
The draft Order has two main purposes. In the first place, it establishes the Northern Ireland Development Agency as the successor to the Northern Ireland Finance Corporation and defines the functions and the powers of the new body. Secondly, it replaces the present Section 1 of the Northern Ireland Industries Development Act of 1966 with a new section which expands the purposes for which selective financial assistance may be given.
As hon. Members may recall, the Northern Ireland Finance Corporation was established in 1972 following the recommendations of the Joint Review Body on economic and social development in Northern Ireland—the Cairn-cross inquiry. It had a statutory life of three years, which was later expanded by a further two years, and its main role was to rescue Northern Ireland companies which, because of the troubled political and security situation, might have had difficulty in raising finance through the normal commercial channels. Within this field the Corporation has tackled many difficult problems, and I would like to express my appreciation of the work which it has done in the past four years.
The decision to establish a new body is not a reflection on the Corporation, but the outcome of the Government's overall industrial strategy as set out in the White Paper "The Regeneration of British Industry", which has already led to the establishment of the National Enterprise Board, and Development Agencies in Scotland and Wales. It is important that Northern Ireland, which has many deep and difficult economic problems, should have available to it a similar type of body. The Development Agency in Northern Ireland has therefore

been fashioned very much on the lines of the Development Agencies in Great Britain.
The Agency will be a much more positive body than the Finance Corporation, with a major role to play in the economic reconstruction of Northern Ireland. I see it setting about this task in two broad ways. In the first place, it will be the agency for setting up State industries, whether on its own or jointly with others, especially in areas of high unemployment where private industry has so far failed to go. In the second place, it will be expected to take positive steps to improve and strengthen existing Northern Ireland firms. It will encourage joint ventures, it will be able to acquire licences and patents and to introduce these to firms tn Northern Ireland, it will search out new products and new processes suitable for introduction into Northern Ireland industry, and it will initiate moves to help in the reconstruction of industries in Northern Ireland.
In this role of improving and strengthening industry, the Agency will also have power to give advice on management, finance and administration, and, most important, marketing. It has been represented to me strongly in my discussions—and there have been full discussions with all interested organisations, and especially with the Northern Ireland Economic Council—that there is a need for a body to assist Northern Ireland companies in the marketing of their products. I believe that this need fits in well with the broad role that I have outlined for the Agency, because successful marketing usually brings with it substantial rewards in terms of trade and employment.
The Agency will be expected to adopt a commercial attitude towards the carrying out of these functions. It will invest in a project only where it believes that there is a reasonable prospect of viability. That is not to say—and I should like to make this quite clear—that the Agency should be over-cautious in its approach to investments. A level of acceptable risk cannot be legislated for and a decision to invest will be a matter for the judgment of the Agency. In reaching such decisions, however, it is right that it


should take into account a wider range of considerations than would apply in the case of a normal business. For example, it may have to wait longer for a return on investment, or locate in areas which might not be the most attractive commercially, as the price for bringing much needed investment and employment to areas of high unemployment.
In rescue cases, where social considerations play a much greater part, it is for the Government to take the decision, for the Government to direct the Agency to act as their agent in implementing those decisions, and for the Government to provide the cash or other assistance that is needed. The Order before the House provides the machinery for doing this. It is important that this side of the Agency's work should be kept quite separate from activities undertaken on its own initiative, and steps will be taken to ensure that this distinction is brought out clearly in the Agency's annual report.
Hon. Members will have noted recently the publication of guidelines for the operation of the National Enterprise Board. These are felt to be necessary in view of the generous scope of the functions and powers given to that body, and the desirability of establishing certain operating rules and practices to ensure proper co-ordination with the Government and fair competition with private industry. The same considerations apply to the Northern Ireland Development Agency, and I have sent draft guidelines to the Economic Council for discussions. These will also be made available to hon. Members, and published.
The main responsibility for promoting new investment from outside Northern Ireland will continue to lie with the Department of Commerce, and I need hardly remind hon. Members of this House of the great success which the Department has had in this field in the past. The distinction between the functions of the Department of Commerce and the new Agency will have to be drawn closely. We do not want them to to overlap or to contradict each other's functions. I have spent a great deal of time examining this question and would welcome the views of hon. Members. It is important to get it right.
The Department's powers derive from Section 1 of the Industries Development Act 1966. That Act was amended in 1971 to give the Department powers to assist in the maintenance of employment. The Order now before the House repeals those early provisions and replaces them with a new Section 1 fashioned much more on the lines of Section 7 of the Industry Act 1972. I am sure the Opposition recognise that Act.
The new Section 1 powers will enable the Department to provide selective financial assistance for a much wider range of purposes, including the reconstruction of industries, and for ensuring the orderly run-down of an industry. The selective financial assistance provisions should be seen as complementing the work of the Agency, since any undertaking in the Agency's control will stand in the same position regarding entitlement to standard or selective financial assistance towards capital expenditure as will a company in the private sector.
I do not wish to encroach on the time available to hon. Members to discuss this Order, and I propose therefore to be brief in reference to its provisions. Part II of the Order establishes the Agency, confers on it certain powers and functions, and makes available to it £50 million. I am pleased to be able to inform the House that, subject to the Order being approved, the important offices of chairman and deputy chairman have been decided. Mr. Kenneth Cork, presently the Chairman of the Finance Corporation, has been appointed Chairman-designate of the Agency, and I am particularly pleased that he has agreed to accept this position. I am appointing two Deputy Chairmen—Mr. Brendan Harkin, currently Vice-Chairman of the Finance Corporation, a member of the Northern Ireland Economic Council and prominent trade unionist, and Mr. Denis Faulkner, a prominent local businessman. Pending the coming into operation of the Agency, these members will constitute an organising committee, so enabling a start to be made in considering a variety of matters related to the operation of the new body.
If the Order gets through the Privy Council and receives Royal Assent by Easter, we hope that the Agency will be in operation by 1st May, though some


of its functions will come into operation almost as soon as the Order is approved by the House.
The provisions in Part III of the legislation replace sections of the Industries Development Act 1966 and the Industrial Investment (General Assistance) Act 1966 respectively. The effect of the new provisions is, broadly, to add further to the powers of the Department of Commerce to provide selective financial assistance to industry, particularly in relation to the objective of maintaining and safeguarding existing employment.
Part IV contains a provision designed to remove any doubt about the ability of the Department to accept the transfer to it of publicy-owned securities, and the Order ends with three schedules dealing with staffing and financing matters.
The new Agency will have a vital role in the reconstruction of the Northern Ireland economy and will, through this Order, be equipped with the powers necessary to do that job. We discussed this last week in the debate on the Northern Ireland economy. Private investment, public investment and public commitment by the Government are essential for the economy, together with assistance to existing firms which wish to extend. I see no conflict there.
Last night I attended a function in Manchester which was organised by the Ulster Office to promote jobs, investment and marketing for Northern Ireland firms. I attended the function as Minister of State with Sir Harry Jones from the Ulster Office. It was the best-attended meeting of industrialists, buyers and people interested in marketing for many years. There were present 330 industrialists from the Greater Lancashire area, which itself suffers from unemployment. I was heartened when the industrialists told me that, despite the difficulties, they would not desert Northern Ireland and regarded the Northern Ireland economy as part of the United Kingdom economy.
I told those industrialists that in the continuation of direct rule the British Government saw themselves as a positive, not a negative, factor in the creation of a thriving economy. In spite of the heavy body blows suffered by the Province recently, I see a turning of the corner. In the two years during which

I have held office as Minister of State I have never heard such expressions of confidence in the future. I went to my own city to advocate the development of industry and marketing in Northern Ireland, and I came back greatly encouraged. That augurs well for the Development Agency, which can play a crucial and vital part in helping to develop the Northern Ireland economy. I wish the Agency well in the tasks ahead and have pleasure in commending the Order to the House for approval.

10.44 p.m.

Mr. Airey Neave: I wish to join in the tributes paid by the Minister of State to the Northern Ireland Finance Corporation, which was established in 1972. We are pleased to hear of the appointment of Mr. Kenneth Cork, the former Chairman of the Corporation, as Chairman of the new Agency. I was also pleased to hear what the Minister said about the meeting in Manchester. It is good news, which I hope will encourage the people of Northern Ireland.
The Opposition do not oppose the Order, but I think the right hon. Gentleman would agree that we would be fooling ourselves to think that by setting up the Agency we shall solve the economic problems of Northern Ireland. We are glad to hear that the right hon. Gentleman thinks the corner has been turned for the economy, and we welcome that, but he will agree that the Government will need the resources as well as an agency. The question occurs to us whether increased intervention will help industry in the Province any more than it has done recently on the mainland.
The right hon. Gentleman acknowledged that the private sector is essential to the development of industry in Northern Ireland. There may be some doubts in the business world about the functions of the agency. The Paymaster-General, on the Second Reading of the Industry Bill, to which the Agency is related, said that
Any idea…that Whitehall can manage British industry, that it can take its investment decisions, its marketing decisions, its research and development decisions, would be an illusion."—[Official Report, 18th February 1975; Vol. 886, c. 1135.]
Very similar language was used by the present Secretary of State for Northern Ireland in column 181 of the Official Report of 5th June 1972 in the debate


on the Order setting up the Northern Ireland Finance Corporation, which I have mentioned.
On the other hand, everyone will recognise the special conditions in Northern Ireland, and, above all, the need to stem the rising tide of unemployment. Naturally, we hope that the promotion of industrial efficiency, described in the Order as one of the functions of the Agency, means encouragement to the private sector. Unless it does, we need not expect improvement in the unemployment figures.
I have already referred to the debate on the Northern Ireland Finance Corporation in June 1972. The object of that Corporation was a special measure designed to deal with the industrial and investment problems brought on by the terrorist situation in Northern Ireland, as the right hon. Gentleman said. These problems had been investigated by the Cairncross Committee, which reported that
the cumulative effect of civil unrest on the Northern Ireland economy justifies its treatment as a special case".
In the private sector the objective of the Corporation has been outlined as being
to maintain as much as possible the existing economic fabric of the Province against the day when it will be possible to move forward again.
I emphasise those words, because we have to look at the widened powers which the right hon. Gentleman mentioned.
The review body, referring to the NIFC, stated:
We see little to be gained by inviting the Government to become directly involved on its own account in the founding and running of new industrial enterprises.
It is at this point that I express anxiety about the aims of the Government and their real purpose in terminating the functions of the Finance Corporation under paragraph 14 of the Order, because the Order provides for the Agency to have very much increased powers, much more subject to Government control—for one main reason as it appears to us. The Government want to make industrial policy in Northern Ireland conform to overall United Kingdom policy, and the purpose of reshaping the Northern Ireland Finance Corporation is to bring

it into line with the present policy for the United Kingdom as a whole. I think the right hon. Gentleman acknowledged that that is so.
I ask the right hon. Gentleman to tell the House what the relationship will be between the agency and the NEB. This is not clear from the debates that we have had in the House on the Welsh Development Agency and on the Scottish Development Agency.
The Industry Act 1975 removed safeguards from the Conservative Government's Act of 1972, to which the right hon. Gentleman has referred. One of these safeguards was that the Secretary of State had to be satisfied that assistance could not be given in any way other than by the acquisition of shares. He could not acquire more than 50 per cent. of the equity capital, but the Government were obliged to dispose of these shares as soon as possible—that is, as soon as the firm was viable. Where is that safeguard in the Order?
The current policy of Her Majesty's Government seems to be directed as much towards enlarging Government involvement in industry for its own sake as to dealing with specific economic problems. I agree that Northern Ireland is a special case, and we realise that some of these power will be required, but they need to be examined. Government stakes in industry are much more indefinite than they were in the 1972 Act. In this Order one has only to look at the articles relating to investment and acquisition to see the political purposes of the operation.
How far will the setting up of the Agency help to reduce costs to industry rather than increase them? At present the estimated average capital cost for creating a job in Northern Ireland is £6,265. Will the Agency proposals reduce or increase that? Is there not the possibility of heavy burdens on the taxpayer arising from the activities of the Agency in acquiring, as hon. Members will see if they read the Order, securities, plant, machinery and equipment? That may well be expensive for the taxpayer.
We must not forget that the industry of Northern Ireland is dependent on the overall health of the United Kingdom economy and that Northern Ireland is


dependent especially on the private sector of the economy. On the mainland, the Government suppression of industrial enterprise and profitability in the private sector has some relation to the shortage of investment in Northern Ireland. I acknowledge that the right hon. Gentleman has striven hard to put that right, but the overall policy has had the same effect as in the United Kingdom.
I noticed on the tape tonight that the Patronage Secretary said to the British Leather Federation "There is no future unless private enterprise is given all help to do a first-class job." We entirely agree with him, and we welcome what he has to say.
As to the question of investment, because of the international recession I know that the task of getting investment for Northern Ireland from Germany and the United States has been harder and that the overseas investment boom of the 1950s and 1960s is unlikely to be repeated for some time, although I noticed that the Taioseach, Mr. Cosgrave, has had some success in America with regard to the Republic of Ireland. I hope that the right hon. Gentleman's efforts will also meet with success.
The problem is a United Kingdom and Northern Ireland one and indigenous industries need to be developed. Will the Agency be concentrating on areas where bodies such as the Local Enterprise Development Unit and Enterprise Ulster operate, and what will be its relationship with these bodies? Will there not be an overlap? Is there not a danger of too many bodies operating in this field? Will not this danger be increased by removing the Department of Commerce representatives from the board of the new Agency?
The House is entitled to know a little about the accountability of the Agency here. This becomes increasingly important under direct rule since the dissolution of the Convention and in view of the role that this House has to play in the scrutiny procedure.
The Agency will to a large extent be under the thumb of the Department, which does not appear to require the consent of Parliament, except, I presume, to increase the loan limit under paragraph 10 of the Order. The head of the

Department has virtual control over the Agency's functions. I should like to hear to what extent he will be accountable to this House, because it is a matter of considerable importance, particularly now that we are debating the future relationship of this House to the problem of Northern Ireland.

Mr. Orme: Perhaps I may make a technical point which will clear up the query about public accountability. The accounts of the Agency will be examined by the Comptroller and Auditor General. The accounting officer of the Department of Commerce will be accountable to the Public Accounts Commitee. So there is adequate public scrutiny of both.

Mr. Neave: I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for answering my point. Whenever a new agency of this sort is set up it is right to raise the question of accountability. The present Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, when in Opposition, questioned the extent of powers being given to the Northern Ireland Finance Corporation on the Second Reading of that Bill. He recognised that it was putting great power into the Corporation's hands. We are a little afraid about a virtual carte blanche being handed to the Agency. The guidelines show some recognition of this point and the need for some kind of control over what might be described as a State extension. After all, the Government already have considerable power to involve themselves in the Northern Ireland economy, and it is surprising that they should think the existing powers inadequate.
I should like to know about the position of individual manufacturing firms because I know that the right hon. Gentleman has had a lot to do with that. In a Written Answer to one of my hon. Friends on 13th March 1975 he said that 10 manufacturing firms employing over 8,000 people were State-controlled. Apart from the obvious position of Harland and Wolff with 100 per cent. control, one assumes that the number is now greater. However, we must seek to stimulate local enterprise and initiative, and I should like to know whether the Minister of State has additional figures to those in the Written Answer.
We accept, of course, the special problems here, particularly in view of the terrorist campaign, which justifies special assistance. A deterioration of the economic situation in Northern Ireland might not only cause social hardship but further undermine attempts to restore law and order. Although I have expressed doubts and raised questions, we shall not oppose the Order.

10.58 p.m.

Mr. Robert J. Bradford: I should like to underline three areas of concern by commenting upon and endeavouring to elicit information about, first, the underlying philosophy which gives rise to the Agency, second, the structure of the Agency and, third, its functions. Perhaps I may be permitted to introduce a prefatory statement that it will come as an immense relief and source of encouragement to the work force at Harland and Wolff and Short Brothers and Harland to know that the influence of the Order will not extend to those concerns.
Very few people will disagree that industry throughout the Kingdom, but certainly in Northern Ireland, from time to time needs a financial boost whether from private capital assets or from interim Government assistance. Few in Ulster, however, would wish to see nationalisation introduced by the back door. If, therefore, the underlying philosophy of the Agency is interim assistance in the hope of future viability, or to maintain employment until a profitable alternative is found, our concern is somewhat reduced. But if it is clear that the direction is ultimate and absolute control of industry, and not temporary involvement, there is much reason for concern when we bear in mind some of the activities of the Finance Corporation, which to some extent was the forerunner of this Agency. It was the impression in the minds of many leading industrialists in Northern Ireland that members of the board who were placed there by the Corporation had the interests of the Corporation at heart more than the future prospects of the company.
No one could reasonably object to Government surveillance when public money is being applied, but much fear will be removed if there is a commitment by the Government to divest themselves

of profitable industries at the earliest possible moment.

Mr. Kevin McNamara: And subsidise the rest.

Mr. Orme: It is not a question of nationalisation for nationalisation's sake. I am concerned about the economy. One may have one's own philosophy about the situation, but all that I am concerned about is creating jobs. Having spent perhaps tens of millions of pounds creating viable industry that the private sector cannot produce, it would be criminal to hand it over to people who at the initial stage were not able to create that industry. We are not going to take from private industry. We are going to provide what private industry cannot provide.

Mr. Bradford: If a firm requires interim financial assistance and the Government provide that, there is no reason for the Government maintaining a holding of equity if the firm can proceed from a point in time as a viable concern. That is the simple point that I have tried to make. There should, therefore, be a clear statement that it is not the intention of the Agency to buy into the profitable companies, as it were, or to try to dominate the life of profitable companies.
This approach of realistic assistance for realistic ventures would create a respect for the new Agency which was not enjoyed by its forerunner. I shall come later to my reasons for stating that. There should be an obligation, as it were, on the Agency always to be solvent, in the sense that its money is used so wisely that it should be able to retrieve the loans as easily as possible. This will require skill, insight and discriminatory judgment. However, all those characteristics will soon emerge when it is established that this House will have to agree to its assessments of situations and that final accountability lies here.
I come, I hope naturally, to the issue of the personnel of the Agency and its structure. My preference is for the minimum rather than the optimum number. However, it is vital that there should be proven industrialists and people of real commercial ability and talent involved, plus, as we would expect, a specialist in the rather hazy world of high finance.


There is little place in Ulster for persons with grandiose titles and qualifications who often cannot really appreciate the peculiar needs of Northern Ireland and are very often not in a position to apply themselves. There has been in the past a remoteness in both thought and action concerning some of the personnel of the forerunner of this Agency.

Mr. Orme: I should like to clear up this point at this stage. The appointments of the nine members, including the chairman and chief executive, who will be on the board—it will be quite a small board—will consist overwhelmingly of Northern Ireland people. They will be representative of industry and with practical experience. They will not be there as standard bearers, whether it be for the trade union movement or the manufacturing or employing side of industry. They will be there because of their ability. It will be much more directed to Northern Ireland than previously. One of the reasons for excluding the Departments of Commerce and Finance at this time is that we felt that these were not jobs for civil servants. I took that decision myself. I have appointed people with practical industrial experience. These are people who can get the job done.

Mr. Bradford: That information will be received warmly and happily in the Province.
I turn to the functions of the Agency. Ulster must cease to be an area of temporary expansion for multinationals and become a base for indigenous industry. Of course, we want to share in the commercial and industrial life of the Kingdom as a whole. It could be argued that the terms of the economic union need to be re-defined so that we can have a greater share in it, but every facet of the United Kingdom industry should be relevant. Even if we did have this total economic parity, it would not avert a contraction in time of recession. The Agency must immediately address itself to the need for indigenous industry.
We welcome the comments which have been made about the marketing advice to be offered to industry. That is needed. Today I spoke to a leading industrialist who was concerned about this operation. Like many of his friends,

he will be encouraged by the Minister's words today.
The Agency must not be guilty of creating unfair competition. The Northern Ireland Finance Corporation did not avoid that trap. Let us take the case of Ben Sherman. I do not want to waste time discussing individual factories, but the fact is that the Corporation voted 500,000 shares at £1·50 each and these were written down at 50p.
The Agency will not work if that type of activity is the order of the day. Not only will it be a drain on resources but it will create problems for similar industries. We must safeguard existing entrepreneurs. Where there is a need for a company to invest and the need for a loan, a lower rate of interest might be considered. The rate of interest payable on loans has been a great problem for some industries in Northern Ireland.
The Agency should be not a drip-feed for dying firms and industry in Northern Ireland but a stimulus which could make successful a company which is ambling. That would be of eternal benefit to Northern Ireland.

11.9 p.m.

Mr. John Watkinson: I welcome the Order. There are three basic factors affecting the Northern Ireland economy—the recession, terrorism and the peripheral status of Northern Ireland in relation to the British economy. The last factor, although it has not been mentioned tonight, was an argument in the Common Market debate. It became known as the "golden triangle" argument in the argument that economic resources economic welfare and economic development tended to concentrate in certain areas. It was said that there was a danger that if Great Britain joined the Common Market the country would have to endure the sort of economic effects that Northern Ireland and Scotland had had to endure.
The Northern Ireland situation is a historic fact. It is not only over the past few years that Northern Ireland has suffered a decline. It has been long term, because of its being on the periphery of the British economy. An hon. Member shakes his head. He may care to consider the Scottish economy in the same light, although admittedly it now has fine prospects because of the oil boom. Because


of the historical decline, I particularly welcome this Government initiative to stimulate and improve industry in Northern Ireland.
The hon. Member for Belfast, South (Mr. Bradford) spoke of fears of creeping nationalisation. He does not need to worry too much in view of the amount the Government have allotted to the Agency, which is only £50 million. By whatever run-down standards one uses, that will not take in a great deal of industry. I hope that my right hon. Friend the Minister of State may be able to squeeze a little more money out of the Treasury, because it could be very usefully employed in Northern Ireland.
My right hon. Friend mentioned the guidelines for funds which could be used by the Agency. He said that the fundamental principle would be that of viability. I wondered whether the same principles would apply in Northern Ireland as apply in this country. I serve on the Public Accounts Committee, which has dealt with the Department of Industry and the criteria whereby aid can be given to industry. It is stated quite clearly in those criteria—but I did not hear it from my right hon. Friend—that there may well be overriding social reasons for providing investment where the Department may not see a viable project.

Mr. Orme: That is quite correct. In those circumstances the Minister would give a directive to the Agency, and would also therefore be responsible for the finance expended. The Minister would take into account the social and political considerations. That would be the decisive factor. It would remove the commercial aspects to which the Agency is now tied.

Mr. Watkinson: I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for that intervention.
The hon. Member for Belfast, South referred to rates of interest. Under the Industry Act favourable rates of interest may be charged to a firm in this country in given circumstances. I hope that that will apply in Northern Ireland as well, because it is clearly needed there.
I repeat my welcome for the proposal, which I see as a positive attempt by the Government to break into the recessionary spiral in Northern Ireland. We should see it as an attempt to create jobs in Northern

Ireland, and therefore should all give it a good welcome.

11.15 p.m.

Mr. Wm, Ross: As the hon. Member for Gloucestershire, West (Mr. Watkinson) referred to me shaking my head, I should point out that traditionally industry arises where its resources exist. The hon. Gentleman made that point when he referred to Scotland's prosperity deriving from the oil which has been found off the Scottish coast. That is an extremely important resource in this day and age.
In general, I welcome the setting up of this Agency for the purposes set out in the Order:

"(a) the development or assistance of the economy;
(b) the promotion of industrial efficiency;
(c) the provision, maintenance or safe guarding of employment."
These are laudable objectives. I welcome them and the intention behind them. However, I am sure that the Minister of State will be among the first to recognise that the Government's intentions, and the success of those intentions, are not necessarily the same thing. We have a saying in Northern Ireland—that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Speaking of Regna in my constituency, the road to liquidation is paved with £3 million. That is not a matter which either I or my constituents welcome.
There are other ways of helping industry. I hope the Minister will consider them. For example, taxation rates in the statement which the Chancellor of the Exchequer will be making next week could have a great effect on the viability or otherwise of industry in the coming year.
Efforts made by one Department can be undermined by efforts in a different direction made by another Department. Indeed, the hon. Member for Gloucestershire, West touched on this matter when he referred to the danger of the Department of Commerce and the Agency working at cross-purposes to one another.
I draw particular attention to the example of the Minister of Agriculture's statement today which alters the beef support arrangements for Northern Ireland, leaving it apart from the rest of the United Kingdom and affecting the entire meat industry there.
Looking at page 10, we see that is
the investment or financial assistance is likely to provide, maintain or safeguard employment in any part of Northern Ireland".
I am tempted to wonder, in view of the announcement made today, what the Agency will be able to do in that kind of situation. The change announced today removes competition and creates a monopoly. Such a monopoly is traditional. However, it means hardship and unemployment in an ever-widening circle. Will the Agency be prepared to step in to help to correct any difficulties which may be caused by the action of another Department? That is an important aspect of the problem for the Government. I hope that the Minister will be able to clear that up.
We see that plant and machinery are to be made available. The Minister will be aware that the farmers' union is about to launch a new meat plant. Will the Agency help there? Is it prepared to help the industry to stand on its own feet? That would be cheaper than selling meat into intervention, and it is also more socially acceptable.
The Minister mentioned social considerations. Perhaps he will spell out more clearly what those social considerations are. Do they cover the employment of the small hill farmer as well as the factory worker? Many of my constituents are worried about that matter.
Any upset in the pattern of farming and, indeed, of beef support leads to social upsets. There is a great deal of concern about the package announced today. Social upsets in Northern Ireland tend to become dangerous affairs. There is always the danger that irresponsible people will jump on the bandwagon created by the Government's foolishness.
I hope that the Minister will bear in mind the unfortunate results that the action of one section of the Government can have on the viability of the policy of another section of the Government. We have the problem of action not only by one section of our own Government but by other Governments and by the EEC. I regret that the Minister of Agriculture was unable to see me regarding this problem in the last 10 days. This is a matter which is clearly within his sphere of responsibility. He, and he alone, is the person who deals with EEC

matters. Perhaps this is a matter which could be sorted out in terms of the green pound.
It is further complicated by the border difficulties and the failure of the Southern Government to enforce their laws, rules and regulations. All these matters affecting industrial efficiency do a great deal of harm to employment prospects in Northern Ireland, not only in farming but in the meat industry generally. The Meat Industry Employment Scheme was drawn up to get over this problem on the border. Perhaps the Minister will be good enough to say precisely what the Government intend to do about that.
These difficulties all come about because of a failure to treat international boundaries as international boundaries and because of a great failure on the part of the Government of the United Kingdom to see to it that industry in Northern Ireland is protected from the activities of other Governments. The plain truth is that if this Agency is to succeed it must be backed by the Government, and I hope that the Minister will ensure that this matter is looked at very closely by his right hon. and hon. Friends.

11.22 p.m.

Mr. Kevin McNamara: I am surprised that the hon. Member for Londonderry (Mr. Ross) did not end up with a plea that the Agency should man the border roads. He managed to cover practically everything else in his diatribe against the Government.
I am concerned about the degree of welcome which has been envisaged for the Order. If this is a welcome, I hate to think what a polite refusal would be. But what it really amounts to, of course, is a marked reluctance to say "No", because the Opposition understand the importance and significance of the Order for Northern Ireland.
I regret the statement of the hon. Member for Belfast, South (Mr. Bradford) about Ben Sherman, bearing in mind that 400 jobs were saved by the Government. I am as keen for the jobs to be saved there as the Opposition are for the jobs which have been saved by Government action in Harland and Wolff or in any other industry in Northern Ireland or, for that matter, on the mainland.
I am concerned not only about the obvious problems arising from terrorists in both communities and the effect that they have on unemployment in Northern Ireland. More basically, I am concerned about the unemployment of anyone, about any home without a wage earner and about any family having to live on social security rather than having the dignity of wages coming into the house. Therefore, whether it be Ben Sherman, Harland and Wolff or anywhere else, I apply the same criteria in deciding whether the Government should try to give assistance.
I welcome the appointments of the chairman and the two vice-chairmen which my right hon. Friend announced today. The persons appointed have given considerable service already to Northern Ireland and have done a great deal to try to help the country of the Six Counties to prosper in most difficult circumstances. Their further example of public service is to be welcomed considerably.
However, there are a number of matters which I am concerned about and a number of questions that I should like to ask in welcoming the Order. I think the hon. Member for Londonderry was wrong when he said that the Agency and the Department of Commerce might be working in contrary directions. My right hon. Friend was careful to say that he did not want an overlap, which is not necessarily the same thing. I would like my right hon. Friend to define these fields more clearly and directly, if it is possible. For example, when he talks about licences and patents of goods to be manufactured in Northern Ireland, are they patents and licences from abroad? Will the Agency or the Department of Commerce deal with them? My right hon. Friend said that the Department of Commerce was dealing with all industry coming into the Six Counties. Did he mean on a foreign basis or on a United Kingdom and Northern Ireland basis?
My right hon. Friend, and hon. Members opposite, also spoke of the question of overlapping concerning such things as Enterprise Ulster, the local industry enterprises and similar schemes. Are any of these matters going to be subsumed within the new Agency, or will they remain in existence continuously? It

could be that matters which have grown up in an ad hoc manner could create their own continuity. As we all know, committees can be formed which become self-perpetuating. One may have a plethora of organisations and individuals but often little is achieved. I should like to know what the relationship between these organisations will be. In the past they have been put there to good purpose, or have arisen in times of difficulty. However, with the creation of new agencies, and this new Agency in particular, they might have outrun their useful life.
Another matter of tremendous importance—it has been mentioned from both sides of the House—is that one has to have within Northern Ireland the creation of indigenous industries—a large number of small indigenous industries—rather than one or two large industries. It is most important that the industrial base of the Six Counties should be as wide as possible.
One of the lessons we have learned on this side of the Irish Sea in large towns dependant either on motors or heavy engineering of a particular type or on textiles is that a recession in one of those industries, a change in world demand, or even fashion, can create a tremendous problem. This could be cushioned, and could almost be avoided, if one had a wider industrial base than has existed in the past. Therefore, what I have argued for my own area of Humberside is equally applicable to the Six Counties—the need not only for the eye-catching multinational company but for the small firms which can bring prosperity, skill and technical expertise and create the cushion which is so important.
As in my area, the multinational company can create unemployment overnight. In my area, 2,000 jobs have been lost in that way. That has been repeated in Northern Ireland when multinationals have cut down on their investment and when a large firm in the United Kingdom has decided to close. Some are State-owned, some are private. Politicians and civil servants dangle carrots to get firms to areas which may still be developing their internal economies. Hon. Members opposite did not care for the reference earlier to the "golden triangle", but it is true that in a recession these firms pull back to the centre.
In Northern Ireland, companies from England, France, Germany, Holland, America or Canada will be in exactly that position. We have to create a local base using the local raw material of men and women and their native skills.
Fifty million pounds sounds a lot of money in relation to the £6,000 that it costs to create a job in Northern Ireland. We voted £10 million last week under Section 8 of the Industry Act for a new chemical complex for BP just outside my constituency at Salt End. Altogether it will cost £50 million. But, after all the temporary benefits of that money, in the end only 140 permanent jobs will be created. That is a lot of money for a few jobs. We must be careful that the use of carrots to attract employers to development areas is not abused.
What does the money allocated to Northern Ireland work out at per head? What are the similar sums granted to the Scottish and Welsh Development Agencies?

Mr. Orme: This is an important point. We are not talking about a fixed sum of money which must be spent. With Treasury approval, the sum of £50 million could be increased, so long as that could be justified in the existing economic situation. It compares favourably with both the Scottish and the Welsh Development Agencies. My hon. Friend will recognise that the environmental expenditure on Scotland and Wales has no counterpart in Northern Ireland—clearing up the industrial dereliction of the ninteenth century. So in industrial terms Northern Ireland will be no worse off.

11.35 p.m.

Mr. J. Enoch Powell: I want first to make a formal observation about the Order and then two political remarks before coming to the meat of the Order. The formal point is that we have here an Order which is conceived in terms of the 1973 constitution. I shall not labour the point, but we have had a different perspective in the last few weeks from that which we had when we considered previous Orders.
There is an increasing absurdity in legislating for Northern Ireland in terms of the institutions of the 1973 constitution without, as it so happens, the application provisions which translate it all into

reality even being in the Order itself. In order to translate terms such as "Northern Ireland Assembly" and "Head of Department" into what they will mean in practice, one has to look at the relevant provisions of the 1974 Act. I know that the right hon. Gentleman and the Government take this point. I just note that we have to grow out of the period in which we have unrealistic terminology in which we continue to legislate for Northern Ireland.
I come now to my two political points. The Order is clearly closely linked with the Industry Act 1975. As a matter of fact the Industry Act 1975 specifically extends to Northern Ireland, and I shall come to that point later. It would be broadly true to say that by the Order we are constructing an administrative layout in Northern Ireland which is not a mirror image of that created in Great Britain but which corresponds very closely to it. Indeed, some of the articles of the Order are word for word with the provisions of the 1975 Act, and I amused myself for a little time by jotting down the 1975 Act's sections against the Order's corresponding articles.
The 1975 Act, like the organisation it set up, was a Socialist Act of a Socialist Government. It is certainly not the object of my hon. Friends and myself to say that we wish to contract out of the policies of the United Kingdom as a whole, good or bad, Socialist or capitalist. What we want to do is to apply our part in forming that legislation and these policies, criticising them and altering them, as do the representatives of other parts of the Kingdom, but accepting them as they emerge from Parliament altered, amended or developed to apply to Northern Ireland as a whole.
So we want to be integrated into the process of legislation, and I hope that as time goes on we shall play an earlier part than we do now in the formation of United Kingdom legislation which in due course is reflected into Northern Ireland. While, except for the time, one could have a debate tonight on the ideology, I leave that ideology on one side. I accept the ideology as implicit in the framework in which we shall be working, at any rate for some time to come.
My other political observation derives from what the Minister said about his


experience in Manchester, about which he told me personally earlier in the day. Let me say that there was something infectious in the right hon. Gentleman's delight in the experience.
What is instructive about it politically is that it has come just at the time when so many people, including some rather foolish people in Northern Ireland, are seeking to pretend that we are entering a period of increased instability and uncertainty. The reverse is the case. Nothing is for ever. In recent weeks, however, there has been a gain in stability. There has been a gain, humanly speaking, in certainty. I for one was delighted, as was the right hon. Gentleman, to find a quick reaction on the part of business people whose duty it is to detect stability or instability. There was a quick reaction to the change in conditions and prospects for Northern Ireland. That is something that I do not want to see people in Northern Ireland or anywhere else blacking, if I may use a trade union term not quite accurately.
From those political observations I come to the contents of the Order. As I understand the structure—it is quite an interesting one—we have on the one hand parliamentary operations of the Department of Commerce, with its extended powers and scope, and on the other hand we have the Development Agency. If we must use one word to characterise them, I should say that the attitude of the Department is, not surprisingly, departmental, whereas the objective of the Agency is to be managerial.
The functions of the Department are much more direct than those of the Agency. In particular they are directed to the problems of unemployment—namely, the prevention of unemployment and the maintenance and the increase of employment. The instruments which the Department of Commerce uses, although they partly overlap those of the Agency in the provision of capital, include the use of the grant. I might add that the grant is the typical instrument that is used by the Department.
When we turn to the Agency, we find ourselves quite deliberately in a different atmosphere. I noted that the right hon. Gentleman said that we are looking for a commercial attitude. He qualified that

statement somewhat by saying that the Agency, when deliberately operating with Government capital, will not be obliged to apply the same harsh criteria that private capital has to apply so as not to be lost. At any rate, commercial viability is intended to be the touchstone. Investment in one form or another is intended to be the characteristic instrument of the Agency in doing its work. As the right hon. Gentleman and others have realised, the relationship of the boundary line between the two bodies is extremely important. I hope that there will still be time for the right hon. Gentleman to say a little more about that when he replies.
First, I hope that the right hon. Gentleman will make it clear where the National Enterprise Board, under the 1975 Act, comes into this operation, if it comes into it at all. If the 1975 Act extends to Northern Ireland, presumably the NEB relates to Northern Ireland. I hope that the right hon. Gentleman will explain where the NEB comes into the pattern which is established by the Order. I hope that he will deal briefly with some of the overlaps between the Department and the Agency. There are at least two distinctive overlaps. For example, the Department can use the Agency as it is an agent for doing its statutory work.
Finally, I ask the right hon. Gentleman to say a little more about the circumstances in which he envisages that the Department will go on acting directly, and the circumstances in which it will transfer to the Agency the actual work of implementing its statutory functions.
In what class of case will the Development Agency be an instrument of choice by the Department for doing its work under the 1966 Act? A second overlap is that the Order gives the Department the right to transfer public property that it holds to the new Agency. Incidentally, on reading the Order it appears that that ceases to be public property in the technical sense when it is transferred to the Agency. I deduce this by marrying Articles 8 and 18 and because of what is said in Article 3(9):
The Agency shall not be regarded as the servant or agent of the Crown…and the Agency's property shall not be regarded as the property of, or property held on behalf of, the Crown.
I hope that the Minister will be able to indicate the circumstances in which he


expects the Department to make transfers of property, assets or shares currently in its possession to the Agency.
The hon. Member for Abingdon (Mr. Neave) was anxious, as am I, about surveillance. Of course, the operations of the Department are under normal surveillance by the Public Accounts Committee and so on and the Agency's operations and accounts will be handled by the Exchequer and the Comptroller and Auditor General, but this is not sufficient. What is being done, the way in which it is being done and the relationship between the Department and the Agency are so important that we should consider a continuing scrutiny of the operation.
My hon. Friend the Member for Belfast, South (Mr. Bradford) was right to remind the House that the history of the Agency's predecessors—the Finance Corporation—has not been, to put it mildly, unchequered. We should like more opportunity of continual contact with, and surveillance of, what is done under the Order and within the framework of the Bill. This leads me back to the subject—I know this is King Charles' head, but we must have it—of a continuing committee, unlike anything we have now, to maintain a more intimate and investigatory contact with the proceedings of government and administration in Northern Ireland.
I have tried to abbreviate my remarks to enable the Minister to deal with some of the major points made in the debate.

11.48 p.m.

Mr. Orme: I make no complaint about any of the contributions to the debate. We are short of time, but I shall endeavour to answer as many of the major points as I can. I shall write to hon. Members—the letters can be made public—with replies to other issues raised in the debate.
When I said that I hoped things were improving, I did not mean that the corner had been turned completely. However, I see strands in the economy of Northern Ireland which give me confidence, and that is the basis for our future development.
Many hon. Members have raised the question of the relationship between the

NEB and the Agency. The NEB will operate in Northern Ireland because it covers the whole United Kingdom and there may be instances where planning agreements with large firms may be implemented by the Board. But the Agency will be independent and will operate without needing the approval of the Board. Obviously there will be close liaison, and I see no conflict between the two bodies. A similar situation will exist in respect of the Scottish and Welsh Development Agencies.
I was asked about the cost of creating jobs in Northern Ireland. It costs a great deal of money to create jobs, but I cannot put a figure on it. My hon. Friend the Member for Kingston upon Hull, Central (Mr. McNamara) referred to the amount of money required for that purpose. Our aim is to create jobs, and the Agency will concentrate on doing that.
Questions were raised about the transfer of property and shares fom the Department of Commerce to NIDA. The hon. Member for Belfast, South (Mr. Bradford) welcomed the fact that neither the shipyard nor Short Bros. and Harland was to be placed under the control of the Agency. They will remain in the Department of Commerce under direct ministerial control, which is a more appropriate arrangement. Where applicable, shares and property will be transferred to the Agency, which will manage them as Government shareholders.
Reference was made to the relationship between LEDU, Enterprise Ulster and the Agency. LEDU is concerned with small firms, Enterprise Ulster with direct labour schemes, and the Agency with manufacturinng industry. I see no conflict there. There might in futurre be closer co-operation between, for example, LEDU and the Agency, but we regard the three organisations as being in separate compartments.
I come to the philosophical point raised by the hon. Member for Abingdon (Mr. Neave) and the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell) about the division of powers between the Department of Commerce and NIDA. My right hon. Friend the Prime Minister coined the phrase "creative tension" to describe the relationship between the Department of Economic Affairs and the


Treasury. There is bound to be some overlapping, and there will have to be an intelligent approach by the Department of Commerce and NIDA. The Department of Commerce will have responsibility for grants. I am not prepared to hand over that responsibility to NIDA. Arrangements will be made to ensure that when the Agency wishes to help a prospective developer it will be able to present a package which includes provision for grants. The grants will be provided by the Department of Commerce and application for grants will have to be made to the Department of Commerce.
If the Agency wishes to purchase licences and patents from outside Northern Ireland for articles to be manufactured in Northern Ireland, it will be able to do so for the purpose of creating new industry, but investment will still be the responsibility of the Department of Commerce.
Obviously, political points arise in this situation. The right hon. Member for Down, South quoted the 1975 Act. I could quote the 1972 Act. It is of great assistance, certainly in the case of Sections 7 and 8, in protecting employment, not only in Northern Ireland but in other parts of the United Kingdom.
I would not wish to compete with the hon. Member for Londonderry (Mr. Ross) in his great expertise in agriculture, but he would, I am sure, be the first to recognise that in a city like Deny he does not represent simply hill fanners. The hon. Member gives the House of Commons the impression that very little else exists. I have seen a lot of houses and industry in Deny, and he might bear that in mind. I take note, however, of his points concerning the meat industry. I have been involved in matters concerning the meat plant. In this sort of

development, where an important industry like agriculture is involved, the Development Agency could examine the possibilities. But obviously it could come into conflict with other Departments.
As to the question of multinationals, how the Government will use the investment and whether there might be abuse, we need all types of investment in Northern Ireland. We have a major company about to develop a plant which will provide many hundreds of jobs in the Londonderry area. I was talking to the chairman of that company a few nights ago. I asked him why the company was able to expand and to continue its operations at a time when we so desperately need jobs. His reply was "We are satisfied with the workpeople of Northern Ireland and also with the type of Government grants and facilities available."
Private industry needs the Government just as much as the Government need a private sector, and the one cannot exist in this type of mixed economy today without the other. While we have that type of development, I say also to the House that we need industries which are indigenous to Northern Ireland itself to take away some of the strains that we have seen with the closure of firms recently, whether publicly—or privately-owned, in Northern Ireland. To develop that growth we need, in my opinion, the development of such an Agency.

It being one and a half hours after the commencement of proceedings of the motion, Mr. DEPUTY SPEAKER put the Question, pursuant to Standing Order No. 3 (Exempted business).

Question agreed to.

Resolved,
That the Industries Development (Northern Ireland) Order 1976, a draft of which was laid before this House on 22nd March, be approved.

NORTHERN IRELAND (SOCIAL SECURITY)

11.58 p.m.

The Minister of State, Northern Ireland Office (Mr. Roland Moyle): I beg to move,
That the Social Security and Family Allowances (Northern Ireland) Order 1976 (S.I., 1976, No. 427), a copy of which was laid before this House on 23rd March, be approved.
The Order maintains the principle that there should be exact parity between cash social services in Northern Ireland and those in Great Britain. It was made under the "urgent" procedure without a draft having been approved in order to enable the necessary administrative arrangements to proceed step by step with those in Great Britain. These arrangements not only have social security implications for the Department of Health and Social Security but also involve the Inland Revenue in contribution collection procedures which will become operative from the beginning of the next financial year on 6th April.
I now turn to an explanation of the Order. As the House knows, we have power to alter the present school leaving dates, and certain implications arise if those powers are implemented. For example, Article 3(1) relates to the social security scheme. It amends the Social Security (Northern Ireland) Act 1975 to secure that the earliest date from which anyone can be liable for social security contributions will be his sixteenth birthday rather than his school leaving date, and if he stays beyond his school leaving birthday he will not pay contributions until he leaves school.
Article 3 (2) deals with injury benefits. On the coming into operation of the main provisions of the Child Benefit (Northern Ireland) Order, the qualifying age for injury benefit will become the age of 16. Until then the existing arrangement under which industial injury benefit is not normally payable in respect of a person for whom family allowances are payable is maintained. This article enacts for Northern Ireland the provisions relating to family allowances and social security which are enacted for the rest of the United Kingdom by the Education (School Leaving Dates) Act 1976.
I turn now to Article 4. At present, in order to establish his right to benefit a person out of work due to a strike must prove, first, that he is not participating in, financing or directly interested in the dispute, and, secondly, that he does not belong to a grade or class of workers any of whom are participating in or financing or directly interested in the dispute. Article 4 modifies these requirements by restricting the first to a requirement to prove that he is not participating in or directly interested in the dispute. Thus the financing part is eliminated. The second thing a person had to prove is wholly removed. These repeals have already been enacted for the rest of the United Kingdom by the Employment Protection Act 1975, although they are not yet operative.
The provisions of Article 5 are necessary because payment of family allowances is related to school leaving dates. The powers in that article enable awards of these allowances and related child dependency benefit to remain in payment up to a date roughly coinciding with the end of the summer term in 1976 as at present. Young people will continue to count as children for family allowances and dependency purposes up to their sixteenth birthday at least. Article 6 is supplementary.
I trust that this brief explanation will give the House an adequate outline of the provisions of the Order.

12.2 a.m.

Mr. John Biggs-Davison: The House is grateful to the Minister for being brief and helpful. The Opposition in general support measures to bring the law of Northern Ireland into line with that of the rest of the United Kingdom, and we consequently welcome this measure providing for exact parity.
I shall detain the House with only one question on Article 4. The Minister of State said something about the article, which amends part of the Social Security (Northern Ireland) Act 1975. What precisely is mean by "financing a strike"? Is the reference specifically to strike funds, or is there a wider meaning?

12.3 a.m.

Mr. James Molyneaux: The Explanatory Note makes the point that the Order amends the


Social Security (Northern Ireland) Act 1975 and repeals in part provisions of that Act and of the Supplementary Benefits &c. Act (Northern Ireland) 1966. The Minister of State has confirmed these points. I notice that the schedule lists a number of additional repeals. I wonder whether the Minister can tell us what variations remain, assuming that we pass the Order, between the two parts of the United Kingdom in the sector of government to which the Order refers.
Are we engaged in something of a tidying-up operation, bringing legislation into line to make for smoother practice, with a greater degree of inclusion of Northern Ireland in United Kingdom Bills? That would be much more desirable and vastly preferable to the rather nonsensical procedure which we have experienced in the past four years of producing Bills here, taking them through all stages and then a few months later repeating them in Order in Council form for Northern Ireland alone.
This has been quite a day for Northern Ireland Members. It the earlier debate on defence the Government motion referred to the "territorial integrity" of the United Kingdom. The preceding Order was clearly designed to harmonise arrangements for industrial and financial relationships with the rest of the United Kingdom. This Order goes a long way towards harmonising legislation affecting what the hon. Member for Kingston upon Hull, Central (Mr. McNamara) might permit me to call our Six Counties of the United Kingdom. As such we welcome it.

12.7 a.m.

Mr. William Ross: I support my hon. Friend the Member for Antrim, South (Mr. Molyneaux) in his reference to the procedures for Northern Ireland legislation. The removal of the words in the Social Security (Northern Ireland) Act would not have been necessary if the Act passed for the rest of the United Kingdom had been extended to cover Northern Ireland. In that event Northern Ireland Members would have had a greater incentive to take part in the arguments on that Act on the Floor of the House. When Bills are not extended to cover Northern Ireland, we are placed in a difficult position. We may have the freedom to

speak but we do not feel morally free to do so.
Article 3(2) of the Order refers to children not having attained the compulsory school leaving age. What would happen if a child under 16 years was injured while doing a part-time jot)—say, delivering newspapers or picking potatoes on a farm? What is the possibility of the child receiving injury benefit? Or is only family allowance benefit paid? What is the legal obligation on an employer at that time? How does the employer insure such children? Are they covered by the normal terms of his insurance? Did I understand the Minister to say that a child or a young person aged betwen 16 and 19 would formerly have received family allowance only if he had been injured at work?

Mr. Moyle: I can tell the hon. Member for Epping Forest (Mr. Biggs-Davison) that if someone was paying a contribution to a trade union which was involved in a dispute, and if he was also the class of worker involved in the dispute, he might be regarded as helping to finance the dispute. Therefore, that possibility is now being removed so that someone who is not really involved in the dispute, although he may be paying a contribution to a trade union which is paying strike pay to those on strike, and if he is of the same class as those on strike, we will under the Order be able for the first time to obtain unemployment benefit.
The hon. Member for Antrim, South (Mr. Molyneaux) raised a point that we have discussed on one or two occasions during debates on Northern Ireland legislation, and the hon. Member for Londonderry (Mr. Ross) also mentioned it—that is, our attitude towards legislation in this House relating to Northern Ireland. We often have a Bill passed in the House relating to the island of Great Britain which specifically excludes Northern Ireland. Therefore, Northern Ireland Members do no feel that they can contribute to the debate. Then, at some subsequent stage, legislation of this sort is introduced applying exactly the same measures to Northern Ireland as have been applied to the island of Great Britain.
Our approach to this matter is basically that we are trying to maintain the integrity of the Northern Ireland statute


book. Under previous constitutional legislation relating to Northern Ireland, a number of subjects have been reserved for legislation by a legislative body situated in Northern Ireland. I do not think we can say in this House, despite the collapse of the Convention, that a situation of that sort will never exist again. If it exists in the future and there is devolved government with a legislative body in Northern Ireland, we feel that its statute book ought to be a whole thing relating to Northern Ireland. It is for that reason that we adopt the principle of parallel legislation.
However, our approach is empirical, and if from time to time we find that it is not possible to legislate for Northern Ireland in this way, with some regret we attach Northern Ireland legislation to a general United Kingdom of Great Britain Bill.

Mr. J. Enoch Powell: I am sure the hon. Gentleman will also recognise that even in the hypothetical event of a resumed legislature in Northern Ireland it would, without a great deal of inconvenience, be able to legislate by reference to United Kingdom statutes, just as in United Kingdom statutes we are having to legislate with reference to Northern Ireland legislation. I welcome the hon. Gentleman's introduction of the notion of empiricism. I would only say that the background against which that empiricism falls to be applied will gradually alter.

Mr. Moyle: The right hon. Gentleman is entitled to his view. I think that I have explained the Government's view on this matter. It is a matter for judgment as to where the greatest convenience or inconvenience lies. We have taken the point of view which I have just put forward. That is the explanation, and we have discussed this matter on one or two occasions previously.
My final point is about children under the age of 16 who are injured in the course of a part-time job. Under the new scheme such a person will be ineligible for injury benefit. Whether he has any remedy against his employer in those circumstances depends very much, I imagine, on legal procedures and who exactly was the cause of the industrial injury, whether or

not there was any contributory negligence on the part of the employee.

Question put and agreed to.

Resolved,
That the Social Security and Family Allowances (Northern Ireland) Order 1976 (S.I., 1976, No. 427), a copy of which was laid before this House on 23rd March, be approved.

ADJOURNMENT

Motion made, and Question proposed, That this House do now adjourn.—[Mr. Dormand.]

BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL WARFARE

12.14 a.m.

Mr. Michael Hamilton: After two days of general debate on defence, I should like to draw the attention of the House to the threat to this country of biological and of chemical warfare, taking them in that order. I readily concede that it would be possible to choose a more palatable subject at this hour of the morning.
We must recognise the threat posed by bacteria deployed in a variey of quite simple weapon systems. Internationally, we have seen the treaty banning biological warfare, but, unfortunately, treaties can be observed or disregarded. We can fold up the blankets over our heads and sleep soundly, if we choose, but this treaty allows for no on-site inspections and reality has a habit of breaking in when least expected.
One of the most sobering facts is the low cost of this type of warfare. It is not the sophisticated or complicated business that some hon. Members might think. If one has access to a brewery, one is already half-way home in the manufacturing process. It is interesting that Pasteur, who pioneered in this field in the last century, devoted much time to the culture of yeast cells and the role of bacteriology in brewing. We have come a long way since his day in our knowledge of the culture of bacteria, as we have in our knowledge of offensive and defensive measures generally.
It is not difficult to disseminate disease germs from a spray tank. Many of us have witnessed crop spraying from the


air. It is a relatively simple process. Only yesterday, the Secretary of State for Defence told us that once or twice a week we are visited by Soviet long-range surveillance aircraft. I have no doubt that they are flying 15 miles up. A single aircraft equipped with spray tanks, making use of prevailing winds, could have a major impact on this densely populated island.
Airborne micro-organisms can be neither seen nor smelt. Delivery by one bomber of 10 tons of a biological agent on an unprotected population will affect an area several hundred times greater than would a 1-megaton nuclear bomb.
There are many varieties of disease which lend themselves to military use. None of them is attractive. Anthrax is an example. Its symptoms can sometimes be taken for a common cold, and may take time to appear. A man way wait for three or four days before he feels ill enough to stop work. There is an anti-anthrax serum, but in the absence of treatment it is almost always fatal.
There is plague, which we used to call the Black Death. It came to England in the 14th century. Some of the villages in my constituency are still not fully recovered from population loss after 600 years. It came back again to London in 1665, when 60,000 people died.
Another choice is cholera. With modern methods of treatment the death rate can be as low as 5 per cent., but untreated it can be 50 per cent. There are also viral encephalitis, which attacks the brain, and yellow fever.
I turn to the subject of chemical warfare. This product of science is an equally Ugly Sister. Many chemical agents, invisible and without smell, would be used in the form of airborne particles. No treaty has been signed, and no international progress has been made towards on-site inspections. We have come a long way since the unsophisticated gas attacks of 1915. Chlorine, which was used then, is as obsolete today as the muzzle-loading cannon. Weapons exist which can produce a lethal concentration over a substantial area within seconds.
The House may reasonably ask why I have chosen to debate this rather macabre subect at this hour of the morning. It is because Britain's research in these fields happens to be concentrated

in my constituency, at Porton. I have known the place for 10 years and more. I meet the scientists at their work and socially. At Porton there is a twin operation—the Micro-biological Research Establishment, or MRE, and the Chemical Defence Experimental Establishment, or CDEE.
The MRE is housed in one of the largest brick buildings of modern times. It sits there in the open, in the big, wide country of Salisbury Plain. It was built since the war. A research laboratory which handles infective material must take measures for the safety of those who work there and of the local community. Therefore, rigorous safety rules are enforced there. The whole of the ground floor and first floor is supplied with filtered air, and elaborate precautions exist to prevent the escape of harmful material. The place is spotlessly clean. The floors shine and the atmosphere is that of an efficient hospital.
It is here that the scientists and their assistants work. I regard them as modern successors to Pasteur. They work in small teams. In the nature of things, they are highly qualified and highly specialised. For example, before taking on his present job in 1971 the Director of MRE had a distinguished career in cancer research. His predecessor, whom I know, is currently Dean of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Less than a mile away is the other and larger establishment, CDEE. I guess that it employs about 800 people. Here, too, scientists are at work assessing the threat of chemical warfare, considering the dual problems of detection and protection.
I know that the Minister would agree with me that there is no cause to doubt the Soviet Union's capacity to operate offensively in chemical or bacteriological warfare. A fortnight ago we were told that Warsaw Pact forces could be this side of the Rhine within 48 hours, and that the Russians could throw 27 divisions into the first wave of the attack, followed by 60 more divisions within five or six days.
I accept that earlier today a Minister sought to discount this; but, on the other side of the balance, we have to recognise


that General Steinhoff, who in 1974 was Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, has gone a long way towards supporting that claim.
Less than a fortnight ago—on 22nd March—a former Commander-in-Chief Allied Forces, Northern Europe—General Sir Walter Walker—gave his views to The Times. I quote only two brief sentences:
With their 'meat-grinder' tactics they will crunch their way forward, regardless of casualties, at a speed of 70 miles a day, supported in depth by airborne troops, armed helicopters, air attack, amphibious attack on the flanks, and chemical attack. Their doctrine regards the tactical use of chemical weapons as a normal form of conventional warfare, and in this field they are better militarily equipped and psychologically prepared than any other country in the world.
Again, this very week, we read the headline
Germ warfare tuition for children.
It seems that a new law has been passed by the Hungarian Parliament, and military education, including germ warfare training, is to become a compulsory part of school curricula for all children over 12 years of age. The law comes into force on 1st July.
This is the general background against which I raise this subject this morning. The House might think that, in the face of growing danger, our precautions should increase. Since the safety of the realm is the supreme duty of Government, logic would suggest that the work at Porton should be given a new urgency and a greater emphasis. But no; the White Paper on defence tells us of a major review at Porton and of significant economies to follow. I regard Porton as a modest insurance policy—no more, no less. It is there to mitigate disaster and to protect the civil population.
I accept that when a householder is faced with economic difficulties, he must cut back in his spending. Yes; but if he is prudent, the last thing he should cut back in is his fire insurance policy. Porton has sustained stringent economies in recent years. I do not believe that there is spare capacity there today. If a team of scientists is broken up, their work is irrecoverable. I drive past the gate each time I visit my constituency. I have watched the situation there with anxiety.
I raise the subject in no spirit of criticism tonight. Rather, I ask the Minister for reassurance that the essential work at Porton will not be impaired.

12.28 a.m.

The Uuder-Secretary of State for Defence for the Army (Mr. Robert C. Brown): I am grateful to the hon. Member for Salisbury (Mr. Hamilton) for raising this extremely important topic and for the opportunity of expanding on paragraph 87 of the recent defence White Paper.
First, I think it is important to be quite clear about the meaning of this paragraph. It does not say that the threat of chemical and biological warfare has receded or become insignificant, that the protection of our troops is to be reduced, or that research and development at Porton is to cease. It says that the future level of research and development on chemical and biological defence is to be reviewed with the object of making significant economies. It also says that the CDE outstation at Nancekuke, employing under 200 staff, is to be closed.
If the question "what are significant economies?" could be given a precise answer, and if those aspects of research which could be dropped, postponed or put on a care and maintenance footing were known in detail, a review would not be necessary. These matters are not yet known, and much careful consideration is needed, and will be given, before firm conclusions can be drawn. A balance has to be struck between military needs on the one hand and the needs of economy on the other. Another material factor is our contribution to the Alliance in this important area of scientific effort.
I should like to say a few words on one other preparatory point, again to get things in the correct perspective. Research on chemical and biological defence has expanded and contracted in the past in response to the particular conditions of the time, and cannot be exempted from this process today. The biological warfare threat was first seriously studied during the Second World War. The early post-war years saw the founding of the Microbiological Research Establishment in 1947, and its present laboratories were completed in 1951. The level of provision


made in the 'fifties and 'sixties for chemical and biological defence is no longer appropriate in relation to other competing demands for scarce resources.
The decision to review the situation is not a sudden realisation. The process of review and adjustment has in fact been going on for a decade. To pick up the story in 1971, it was then decided that MRE should continue with CDE under Ministry of Defence rather than civil control. MRE has since then, with every encouragement from the Ministry of Defence, increased the proportion of its effort devoted to purely civil needs. About one-third of its effort is on civil projects, on a repayment basis. I hope to give further future encouragement to this and other civil aspects.
The Government believe in supporting all effective measures to remove the threat of biological and chemical warfare. The Biological Weapons Convention of 1972 was the result of a British initiative. It came into effect in March 1975, when the three Depositary Powers—the Soviet Union, the United States and the United Kingdom—lodged their instruments of ratification.
The Convention requires all States party to it not to possess or acquire biological weapons and to prevent their being developed by non-governmental agencies in territory under their jurisdiction. The latter part of this obligation was fulfilled by the Biological Weapons Act 1974. This country has never possessed biological weapons; nor has it had any intention to acquire them. However, we have always made it clear within the terms of the Convention that, because not all countries are parties to the Convention and because the Convention makes no provision for verification, the Government intend to devote some research effort to detection and protection. This remains our position.
Turning to international controls on chemical warfare, efforts continue in the search for an adequately verifiable ban on chemical weapons. Meanwhile, the only real chemical weapons agreement reached to date is the Geneva Gas Protocol of 1925. By this Protocol the parties—which include the United States, the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union, China and France—each undertake not to be the first to use chemical weapons against other parties to the Protocol.
The United Kingdom does not possess an offensive retaliatory chemical weapons capability. It recognises, however, that the threat of chemical warfare exists. Warsaw Pact armies are known to be equipped for chemical warfare and to train in the use of protective devices. Accordingly, the United Kingdom takes extensive military measures of a defensive and protective nature to ensure that our troops are fully effective in a chemical war environment. These include the provision of detectors, protective clothing and protection of vehicles. Indeed, when the current cycle of re-equipment is completed, British forces should be among the best equipped in the world in this respect. Because of this and because of the useful exchanges of information which take place with the United States and other NATO Allies we can contemplate development work being reduced for some years to come. We intend, however, to maintain a level of scientific effort that will make a positive contribution to our Allies.
In speaking of the review of work at MRE I have referred so far only to its defence work. The expansion of MRE's civil programme is a success story. Its facility, recently opened, for investigation of dangerous diseases such as Lassa Fever is the only one of its kind outside the United States. I can assure the House therefore that the future of the unique facilities at MRE and of its highly skilled staff, to whom the hon. Gentleman rightly paid tribute and who have made such a valuable contribution to the civil sector in the past, will receive the most deliberate and careful consideration in consultation with all the relevant non-defence interests.
Turning to Nancekuke, I have been asked how it is that a firm decision on Nancekuke has been possible when so much remains to be considered at Porton. The answer lies in the content of the work there. The main activities that we now need to continue are the production of chemicals in experimental quantities for research at Porton and the manufacture of riot control agents. Both of these activities are to be transferred elsewhere, most probably to Porton. In 1973 the Nugent Committee on Defence Lands identified Nancekuke as a "key" area in the Nature Conservation Review and asked that the Ministry of Defence


should keep its need for continued occupancy of the site under examination.
This was confirmed to be the Ministry of Defence position as recently as February this year. The cessation of defence activities on the site is no doubt welcome to the House as a further step in the direction of implementing the Nugent Committee's recommendations. Since I have a personal, across-the-board responsibility for the implementation of the Nugent Committee recommendations, I am pleased to be able to cite this as a further evidence of the Government's commitment to Nugent.
MRE and CDE together employ about 1.200 staff, over 1,000 of whom are at Porton. They are a loyal and dedicated staff, who have built up an enviable reputation throughout the world. They will be fully consulted on proposals and plans to adjust to the levels of capability now justified for defence purposes. Non-mobile staff at Nancekuke will be offered work where possible within reasonable travelling distance, and some will be offered transfers with the work. Assistance with housing at new locations

will be provided where possible. Mobile staff will be offered jobs elsewhere or transferred with their jobs. Some redundancy of non-mobile staff will, I regret to say, inevitably arise, but every effort will be made to contain it and all possible steps will be taken to prevent hardship.
I hope that what I have said tonight demonstrates that MRE and CDE, already having responded very flexibly to the changing post-war needs for biological and chemical defence, must, because of the current need for economy in 1978–79 and onwards, achieve a major adjustment in their response to defence and civil needs. The review that the defence White Paper announced is the means by which this is to be brought about. I am convinced that it will result eventually in arrangements that will take the interests of the staff fully into account and aim to make the best use in the defence and national interest of Porton's expertise and facilities.

Question put and agreed to.

Adjourned accordingly at twenty-one minutes to One o'clock.